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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 03:57 PM

Buddadropping's Comments on May 22, 2001

Sign of a top??

Maybe.

Maybe not.

...................................

Market triple topping. Tremendous war in trenches between bulls and bears rendering oscillators useless and in fact possibly dangerous. E-Signal slammed down, cable out in storm. May Day! May Day! Entire day is short circuiting on all psychic levels. Close likely to be up and up since that is least logical direction.

Trick to shorts is to move only after some weakness shown, I'll wait, index completely unpredictable to me today, often it is that way when retail runs on in at what would otherwise seem a toppy, overbought market. I think thatís the action today but I can't be sure so just will watch, more retail could rush in right now as we speak. Seems mutual fund managers as young as they are are behaving more and more like retail buyers

Another toady wild ride. Is there another PigRun thru top today? I have not a clue. Oscillating indicators work well but not during greased pigruns. Can be dangerous. Do you think because of MACD negative at double top that this is as far as it goes today? Frankly I'm second guessing myself after the run this morning. Retail shorts like BJ aren't working so well either. Strange day as always. More and more money management is most important and TA must take a back seat to it.

You want my unsolicited take on the charts? Much better to simply buy the flow on huge PigRuns like today after the congestion area is taken out at 2250, ignore individual charts, complex interactive schemes, multitudinous selection of indicators, buy the old fashioned way, with the trend. I myself must learn this again and again.

FCEL was upgraded this morning. News at briefing.com, target 120, may mean nothing but price manipulation at top who knows?

Everything is going up on weaker technicals. The rush to get on the new trend is prevailing. I suspect at some point in all trading one must learn to buy breakouts and new intraday highs and leave off with the rest. Hate to say it but less seems to be more, same applies for downdrafts, most gains in market are made on big up days or down days and the rest however elegant can stymie the process. Yes I think EMLX is a good short at the bottom of the gap, but on Thursday it was a good short at 45, its resistance at that time remember? I really don't think it matters at all, the chart at this point, what matters is the index, and high the tide swells, all the rest is elegant but not very efficient when dealing with new and high levels of greed in the market.


................................

Who took a picture of Crapvision today? In case we made a top??

Picture thanks to Intodeep at Clearstation

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#2 realist

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:04 PM

Covered 25% of RYTPX. Back to 50% in Tempest. The warning sign came yesterday when 920 held. Preparing for a move to at least 940 and possibly to 955 still, maybe even further. All the indicators and sentiment say DOWN NOW but until things start actually rolling over indefinetely, the BULLS will continue to "buy the dips".

BPIs and summation indexes are at high extremes not seen since the 2000 top, amazing. Either this will one of the best opportunities to ride the market all the down to supercycle BEAR lows or this will be the greatest SHORT squeeze since the BEAR began. Staying prepared for either case. Enjoy the weekend! :D

#3 wndysrf

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:15 PM

"ABC " Down pattern setting up on the VIX.

A leg = 41 - 23 = 18 points

B leg = 23 to 26

C leg = 26 - 18 = 9


That will be the time to go short.

Dow = 11000
S & P = 1150
Nasdaq = 2500
VIX = 9
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#4 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:21 PM

Bulls, enjoy your victory while it lasts :P

The slope of hope steepens!

Sucker Rally #7

Mmmm, I can smell that steak now!

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#5 Guest_Grizzly Bear_*

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:22 PM

I got screwed by Fidelity today for the very last time.

Here is the scoop...

At 9:40AM I place an order to short the QQQ's at market looking for a quick strike. Fifteen minutes later and my order still has not filled, so I call the 'gold account' team. I am informed that they are having system problems and that he would call down to the floor and cancel the order for me. Twenty-five minutes later at 10:25 AM I get an email informing me that my short on the QQQ's has been filled at the low print of the day. I call back to complain and in essence get told, sorry pal--maybe we can adjust the trade back to 28.10--but I will have to wait 24-hours to find out as they have lots of other disputed orders to review beside mine.

Of course I cannot prove it--but it sure does seem convenient that the MM would hold my market order for 45 minutes until just exactly the low tick of the day and then execute just as the squeeze began.

Yeah, I am pissed...and this is not the first time those crooks have done this to me.

Can anyone recommend a bear-friendly brokerage?

:angry:

#6 DrStool

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:23 PM

New Server News

Most of you know about this so you can skip this.

The Stool is being moved to a new dedicated server later tonight. I expect that there will be an outage lasting 30 minutes, perhaps more, some time after 10:00 ET. The site should come back up later overnight, but there may be performance issues until the dns changeover is complete on Monday.

The new server is a monster, so there should be a noticeable increase in speed, and definitely no bottlenecks on busy days.

I look forward to seeing you after the changeover is complete. Again many tanks to all stoolie subscribers for making this possible! Please give yourselves a big cheer!

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#7 strikerm3

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:27 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

#8 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:29 PM

I dunno Mark, I take ewaves with a grain of salt (over-hyped crap, too dependent on human interpretation=error) but you could also see that VIX decline from March as a "clean" 5 waves down. That means its over! :lol:

Do ya feel lucky?

#9 FeedFool

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:29 PM

"ABC " Down pattern setting up on the VIX.

A leg = 41 - 23 = 18 points

B leg = 23 to 26

C leg = 26 - 18 = 9


That will be the time to go short.

A leg = 41 - 23 = 18 points

B leg = 23 to 26

C leg = 18 - 26 =- 8 :P :P :P


Dow = 110,000
S & P = 11,500
Nasdaq = 25,000
VIX = -9 :D

#10 Yanevano

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:31 PM

BKX is rolling over moreso than others.....should lead this shtpile down.....BPIs are all at tops waiting to be deflated.....had to resist the urge to throw the rest of my money at it today.....sullenly added small dink to RYTPX according to this dollar cost averaging plan.....like feeding a minnow to shamu every day....surrounded at Bastogne, freezing, little food, a little ammo left, heavy cloud cover, shelled mercilessly, foxhole has bear sht all in it, no, I won't surrender bully, Nuts

#11 scottcardiff

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:32 PM

The thing about the oscillators is that their RSI's are still climbing. Until these indicators roll over, shorting is dangerous, witness NVDA today.

Anyone out there have any suggestions on how to become more "robotic", and completely remove emotions from trading?

Case in point, today I shorted NVDA at 20.50 area in the AM, covered 1/2 at 20 area, and stopped out the remaining at 20.60. I then bought May 22.5 calls for .30 and could have sold them for .45 bid at the close. A nice trade, except for the fact I have yet to be able to trade this way in size that would make a difference.

I think that I have developed a trading system that works extremely well and could be expected to return between 10% and 50% per month. Yet I have not been able to "supersize" my trading positions.

On a small scale, using this system, I started with $1000 on March 26th. I look for chart patterns based on fibonacci relationships and volume surges. Extremely tight stops and open for re-entry.

After 6 weeks, the $1000 is $3850. The problem I'm having is that I can't mentally scale up to size. In other words, I'm afraid once I put $100,000 on a trade, I'll screw up and not stop out of a losing position. I've been scaling up the initial investment (ie. next trade will be $3850), so I'll eventually get to $100,000 investments.

I guess what I'm trying to find out is what stoolies would recommend for conquering the psychological demons that keep a trader from executing a system, ie. taking the trades and taking the stops, or in other words, program trading.

Any ideas? Thanks in advance.

#12 longOnUranus

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:34 PM

Grizzly - I don't use market orders on the buy side anymore. A limit order may not get executed if your bid is hit, but you won't get screwed price-wise like you can with a market order. I've had similar problems with Schwab, Amerirtrade and Scottrade in the past. When price is really important, like intraday option scalps, I recommend using limit orders to open positions.

-a Recovering Scalper

#13 PileDriver

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:35 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Good for him :P

I could too, not likely, but I could care less even if it does. :lol:

#14 FeedFool

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:36 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Donít try and play around with a wounded or a sick dog. When its bite u donít know if itís got rabbies and how painful it may be. If u want more pain please don't let me stop u.

#15 scottcardiff

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Posted 09 May 2003 - 04:36 PM

Just got word that SG target is 1620-1650 over next 6-8 weeks fwiw. I personally think we get jammed big time next week. Even the scammers get scammed sometimes...we shall see. It would produce a globex outage type effect Im sure. maybe not, just an opinion, good luck to all.


Why is everyone addicted to the S&P and never usually post the NAZ???? Are most in S&P stocks and not Naz? I dont understand...

Speaking just for myself, I find that I'm trading retail, banks, tech, etc. , so the SP is more representative of what I trade.

The comp is basically MSFT, DELL, ORCL, QCOM and INTC.
Who really cares anymore? Still overvalued crap, just no volatility.





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