Night Stool Thurs Nite/fri Morn
23 replies to this topic
Posted 12 December 2002 - 10:49 PM
If anyone wants to try this easy to use financial forum, try the link (beta for capitalstool.com now) for chat
http://www.financialchat.com/forums/# and select any of the #channel names. on the next screen... enter your nick and the channel #capitalstool.com. after that, hit the connect button.
enter your nick you use here, let me or rockhead know if your nick is already registered (in use) by someone on another board. the system will tell you if there is a problem. IF that happens, add a '1' or 123 or something after your nick.
Let me know if you have any problems.
a test thanks to doc and rockhead for the idea!
Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:28 PM
Each night in the first post on Night Stool there are several links to commodity information. Yeah there's a lot of cool links up there that you never check out.
MH's chart comes from one of those links.
The following was written by MRCI's Editor Jerry Toepke for Dr. Van K. Tharp's book, Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom, published by McGraw-Hill in late 1998. We hope it helps explain the concept behind seasonal research and how it is derived, some of its strengths and weaknesses, and how it can be used and/or incorporated into various styles of trading.
The seasonal approach to markets is designed to anticipate future price movement rather than constantly react to an endless stream of often contradictory news. Although numerous factors affect the markets, certain conditions and events recur at annual intervals. Perhaps the most obvious is the annual cycle of weather from warm to cold and back to warm.
However, the calendar also marks the annual passing of important events, such as the due date for U.S. income taxes every April 15th. Such annual events create yearly cycles in supply and demand. Enormous supplies of grain at harvest dwindle throughout the year. Demand for heating oil typically rises as cold weather approaches but subsides as inventory is filled. Monetary liquidity may decline as taxes are paid but rise as the Federal Reserve recirculates funds.
Natural Market Rhythms
These annual cycles in supply and demand give rise to seasonal price phenomena --- to greater or lesser degree and in more or less timely manner. An annual pattern of changing conditions, then, may cause a more or less well-defined annual pattern of price responses. Thus, seasonality may be defined as a market's natural rhythm, an established tendency for prices to move in the same direction at a similar time every year. As such, it becomes a valid principle subject to objective analysis in any market.
The rest of the article
Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:37 PM
Tanks to you too Jorma.
Icky that chart from contrary investor shows yields which as you know are inverse to the price of treasuries.
For explanations of terms with some instruction try these links:
Chart School at Stockcharts.com. Type phrase in search box
Also don't forget Doc's Stoolhoo.
VIX VXN QQV
Bullish Percentage Indices
A move from below 30 to above is bullish and a move back down is you know what.
A fleet of BPI's
Posted 13 December 2002 - 07:25 AM
Globex is showing SPX down over 7, Nas down over 9. But the charts on the first page here show things up hugely -- gasp, pant, wheeze...... almost flat-lined.......
Of course I'm caustic!
Posted 13 December 2002 - 07:33 AM
i use this link for futures, they changed their site and now those chats don't seem to work.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 07:47 AM
What I meant was, the charts here at Night Stool are wrong. The link to CNN agrees with the Globex one I use, which is:
Just trying to spare any others a shocking morning -- or needing a shock with a defibrillator
Of course I'm caustic!
Posted 13 December 2002 - 08:09 AM
Yeah some of the charts are FUBAR.
Stockcharts gold chart must have broken the software.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 08:27 AM
Thanks for all the Nightstool work. It is so nice to take a quick breeze-through in the morning to see all the info I need.
Posted 13 December 2002 - 08:59 AM
"I even think in terms of falling bond prices (rising rates) as deflationary." - Jorma
Mainstream economists have totally missed this issue, but stoolie Jorma has not.
In the 1870s to 1890s when very little monetary gold was added to the Treasury, the gold-backed dollar got more valuable and deflation ensued. Farmers and ranchers were crushed. After the South African gold discovery, monetary gold holdings increased and a mild inflation started in the early 1900s.
Now we have a bond-backed dollar. Both bond prices and bond supply (Fed holdings of Treasury obligations on its balance sheet) are pertinent.
During the 1970s, bond prices declined drastically as rates rose. You can't directly exchange your FRNs for T-notes at the Fed, but you can do it via Treasury auctions. What is the result? Does the shrinking value of its paper backing make each dollar less valauble, thus stoking inflation? Or does the shrinking aggregate quantity of currency make each dollar more valuable (deflation)? Or since FRNs and Treasuries are both paper assets, do they devalue at the same rate?
Bear in mind that the Fed's holdings of Treasuries were sharply increased in the 1970s, so two factors (value and supply) were changing at once. And it probably will happen again from here on. Macroeconomics is not a true science because to date it has been impossible to conduct real-life experiments where only one variable is changed whilst the others are held constant. Economists try to extract significance from one-off events and multivariate correlations. But it doesn't work all that well.
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