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Posted 12 December 2002 - 08:59 PM
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Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:00 PM
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Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:01 PM
Now I think I see why MH has been all over this for a long time.
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:03 PM
Chart courtesy of www.contraryinvestor.com
Very cool chart.
Machinhead if you read this would you care to comment.
The red line now on top is the CRB.
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:06 PM
this is kind of an awesome chart (CRB).
What does CRB mean, what is it?
Why is it so predictable, ideal, in relation to its moving averages?
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:09 PM
GOLD chart didn't update last night FUBAR.
I'm bullish on gold till year end.
The CCI has turned down. CCI is a heads up fast signal.
When the ROC(41), representing the 81 day trading cycle, turns down I would be out of the miners. The miners will probably have already moved lower so this would confirm.
My count is that we are 60 days into the cycle.
Have you checked out Stool's Gold Tonight?
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:11 PM
you mean "or are Treasurys undervalued"? That the interest of Treasurys is too low for the hyperinflationary anti-deflation measures being used? Or is that the Yield?
Aggghhh. I tho't I understood the question, but now I don't ...
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:17 PM
my timeframe is longer than most on this board.
I'm bullish on Gold, too, but I would not forsake my Gold positions for a short term profit,only if I tho't gold would go back below $310. I'm still seeing (reading) that Gold must proceed inverse to the market and economy, and both of those are going down (6000? 5000? 4000? how low can the DJI go? I don't see the floor from where I sit (up at 10,400)) The long term trend is down, down, down, que no?
Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:37 PM
Thanks for the excellent charts. Here is a PDF chart of the CRB index of 17 commodity futures, going back to the 1970s:
After the great Jan. 1980 record high of 337.60, the CRB made four subsequent lower highs, the last one being a triple top in the 232-234 range during Oct. 2000 to Feb. 2001. Today's dramatic breakout in gold over $330 brought the CRB right to the edge of the 234 resistance. A rise beyond 234 would break the long stairstep downtrend and establish a higher high for the first time in 22 years.
What was missing today was breadth. Yes, the concept of breadth applies in commods too. Today's strength came from precious metals and energy. Other sectors - softs, industrials, grains, etc. - were flat to down. A convincing breakout would mean not just a move through 234, but across-the-board strength in commodities, materials, commodity-related bourses such as Canada, Australia and many Asian markets, and commodity-related currencies (same countries).
What we're looking for is flashover -- when a roomful of superheated gases ignites from one end to the other in a big whoosh. The inflation flashover will be a point of psychological recognition -- a belated, seemingly overnight realization that deflation is not the problem. Rather, spiraling prices, costs and taxes are eating us alive, and it's quickly getting worse. Doc alludes to this in the Anals tonight.
When inflation flashover occurs (probably together with a crumbling dollar), bond yields will rocket higher. At that point, no amount of tightening - 5%, 10%, even 15% T-bill yields -- will brake the slide of the dollar.
For deflation to prevail, the rise in PMs and energy must turn out to be a flash in the pan. The dollar must strengthen, and the Fed must fall asleep at the switch, nodding, drooling and mumbling. Moreover, the GSEs must turn tail and run from the housing market. It's not impossible -- it happened in the 1930s -- but it's hard to believe the interventionist authorities are going to let it happen again. For so many reasons, inflation better suits their interests.
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Posted 12 December 2002 - 09:59 PM
yesterday, someone wondered on the board about J'lo having something between her ears. with the help of iwon.com celebrity photo search, I found this one. Guess she never 'felt' the light. dunno.
Posted 12 December 2002 - 10:03 PM
Nice assessment MH. We have been blinded somewhat by the absurd CPI regime constructed over the years to downplay inflation. That is the evil government I suppose, but urged on by it's most important clients.
As always the dollar is the author of this story. So it was in the 70's and so will it be in the future. Inflation caused by market forces as described in Econ 101 is a mirage, a straw man. It is possible in commodities from time to time but in the world of manufactured goods it essentially never happens.
Oil is a big dog in the CRB and as we know this baby could do a moonshot almost anytime. This is the one thing that would cause the recognition you speak of almost instantaneously. Currently there is much hope that the ME situation will resove itself in our favor (speaking simply in brutal oil supply terms) and eliminate this uncertainty. This is THE official administration story. If you were a bigwig who got breifings from the WH that is what you would hear. Could happen I suppose. It almost has to happen, or else. The lack of discussion about at least the possibility of an oil shock is possibly the number one example of wishful thinking.
Always complicating this discussion is the fact that financial assets are usually never considered to be inflating or deflating. A fatal error. We stoolies know, paper is going down, one way or another. I even think in terms of falling bond prices (rising rates) as deflationary. So yes I am in the school that says we can have both inflation and deflation.
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Posted 12 December 2002 - 10:04 PM
weird..after I posted that, now it works? go figure!
Posted 12 December 2002 - 10:42 PM
Thank you MH for the analysis and that great long-term chart. It would seem that commodes could be a good intermediate-term vehicle since they persist in one direction for long periods.
In addition to the indicators I used with the charts, funnymentals (fundamentals) should be a useful tool.
This is the kind of thing I am looking for. There is more than just NASDAQ gambling available.
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