495 replies to this topic
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:47 PM
By definition when you're at a top very few think it's a top. If you thought it was a top or nearing a top you'd be selling not buying. Same for bottoms but in reverse.
Tops (and bottoms) have to catch the greatest number of people by surprise, just the way it works. This is because the moment the smartest money has become suspicious or cautious, the market has already started to turn.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:52 PM
Snippet from Fleck tonight:
...the war rally is firmly in its fantasy phase. I don't find that fact particularly surprising, but I do find individual examples of stock-market lunacy hard to believe. I basically still have not begun shorting, though I have bought a couple of long-dated puts. So much damage lies in front of us, but in the meantime, a rather unrepentant Wall Street and corporate America seems willing to believe it's business as usual.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:54 PM
If you have time, could you do SOX chart please. I would like to see what you think of the SOX please. I shorted way too early
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:56 PM
Just checking in. Last Sunday night I said to exuberant bears on the board without looking at more than one general chart that the market would rally into criminal EOM proceedings. Thats just what it did. It is a good probability forensic play each month at the end. It is characteristic of a market chock full of textbook gamers all following the same charts that it will show constant false breakout and breakdown points to fool the majority of the participants most of the time. This is just what is about to happen now. Another false break out over some so called 'resistance' point. Pavlovians will go banannas and get their panties in a terrible twist and cover with all the rest. Forensic analysis of criminal Wall Struck behavior tell me simply that between May and October the market should begin some kind of sell off behavior. How deep only a fool would attempt to say. This week we have had all kinds of silly statements about declining volume indicating a top,etc. Its the same old,same old. TA makes for terrific dog food science but time and again it fails so many and leads to so much unnecessary pain imo. Have fun gaming it if you like but forensic analysis of stock operation trumps it with alot less time and needless effort. Again imo. Though I respect the much smarter technicians on this board I too often see scenario after technical scenario junked and then reset. At what point does it pay to remain faithful and at what point does faith become fundamentalism? How about those Vix addicts? Hows that for an unreliable indicator? Sorry for the mild rant. Hello to everyone. I am cohosting a political talk radio show here in L.A. for a short while so I have been busy and away. best to all, buddha
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:58 PM
Posted 02 May 2003 - 06:59 PM
If anybody is feeling really despondent about what is going on, ready to crapitulate or done so already, I suggest you take a step back off that ledge and take a peek at the following four charts before you jump. I think they are quite self-explanatory.
1. NYSE New highs : new lows:
Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:02 PM
Thanks, Mark! Definitely saw that Trin reading on Nasdaq. I remember Bontchev once said that usually .40 reading on Trin marks a top - hope this time is no different.
I plan to take a rest soon, getting too tired running around in the Matrix and slapped around by Agent Smith.
Again, can't thank you too much for your market insight and masterful writings in the past. Always a pleasure to read.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:04 PM
Now that everybody in the world thinks this pig market is headed to 950-985, why would everybody in the world get a low-risk opportunity to buy?
860-875 would be too easy, IMO. I think we gap up Monday and scream, in less than 3 days, to 975 area. Top may be a doji. Then some sharp down back to 920 to screw all the call buyers. Then basing action for a few weeks and a bull-trap breakout before the final down.
This is a pure momentum market now, similar to the end of 1999. No retracements more than a few minutes. Pure panic. A real crash. But in the wrong direction.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:14 PM
No worries here. I'm playing the long term here. You know which way that is don't you?!
Big pic, big pic, big pic, big pic.
Sell out of a bear fund at a small loss right smack in the middle of a raging bear market which is very close to terminating a rally correction...I don't think so. Go ahead and go to SPX 950, I could care less. Next stop after that...
Tanks for the wise words yet again Buddha.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:27 PM
There is little more upside.
Sloth, The end, SG, WH are the expert on Ewave they may have something to add.
Posted 02 May 2003 - 07:30 PM
thanks for the charts. Is there a reason you choose 3 year charts? Seems as if the 5 years would be better at this point due to excess insaneness and all.
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