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#46

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:21 PM

Col Dashley,

I'm with you on that! I, too, am suspicious about what the FED retaliation will be, if any, to the symbolic move through $330. I have decreased my HUI exposure quite significantly after today's MOVE. Don't want to be caught between a rock and a hard place. We can speculate about the PPT etc, but I'm not sure what good it will do. For what it's worth though, I think that "Da Boyz" will want to put in a right shoulder before the house of cards collapses. That should coincide with the landgrab in Iraq. Donald Rumsfeld said today that it will take a long time before the 12,000 page report has been scrutinized. That means NO WAR for the time being and HAPPY X-MAS SHOPPING (and maybe there is still a remote chance for some teeny tiney x-mas bonuses for and the borkers).

#47 sweefraapp

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:27 PM

GF: Hey delete those futures charts or I'll have to come up there and kick your butt. They almost bummed out my night.

#48 Takachi

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:36 PM

Here's a reality check from Le Metropole - just a snippet on unadjusted unemployment claims.

http://www.lemetropolecafe.com

"This blew my mind this morning. The Crapvision crowd said economists were looking for an unemployment number of around 380,000. They said this would be more of an accurate number as last week was a full workweek and not messed up by a holiday. The number came in at 441,000, a shocker. The Crapvision pundits then reported it was a fluke, due to seasonal adjustments. What they didnít tell anyone is that the unadjusted number totaled 543,187 in the week ending Dec. 7, an increase of 157,655 from the previous week. That was never explained to the TV viewers and left them with total disinformation. See below:

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA
In the week ending Dec. 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 441,000, an increase of 83,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 358,000. The 4-week moving average was 387,250, an increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised average of 377,250.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending Nov. 30, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 2.7 percent.
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Nov. 30 was 3,284,000, a decrease of 165,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,449,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,476,500, a decrease of 90,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,566,500.


UNADJUSTED DATA
The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 543,187 in the week ending Dec. 7, an increase of 157,655 from the previous week. There were 491,826 initial claims in the comparable week in 2001Ö.

-END- "

#49 PileDriver

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:44 PM

Dines: "Use all three beams".

So true, sentiment is one of the best.

#50 brian4

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:51 PM

Pit bull and Dashley- Remember this-many gold stocks broke out to the upside today their momentum technically will carry them higher. As well JPM and C home to 99.2% of gold derivative contracts either have to pony up $6.50 an ounce for todays rise X millions of ounces or buy Gold in the open market to stay on side-either way the momentum is up-Al can't do a hell of a lot-look at gold tonite do you se slippage?? Trade Safe!

#51

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Posted 12 December 2002 - 11:58 PM

Pit bull and Dashley- Remember this-many gold stocks broke out to the upside today their momentum technically will carry them higher. As well JPM and C home to 99.2% of gold derivative contracts either have to pony up $6.50 an ounce for todays rise X millions of ounces or buy Gold in the open market to stay on side-either way the momentum is up-Al can't do a hell of a lot-look at gold tonite do you se slippage?? Trade Safe!

Thanks for pointing that out. I was just out mailing Xmas cards and on the way back home I thought -- what if they trapped a whole boatload of gold shorts and won't let them out? Some might call that justice.

#52 PileDriver

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:17 AM

Hold Gold, Stay Sold.

There is no way in hell we are going back to the Dec 2nd highs. The Santa rally is going to be a big bust too, a one or two day pimple at best - too many looking for it. Seasonality "strength" is a load of crap too.

B4, if this market is lucky to hit NAZ 1425 I'm adding more bear funds, still have a little $amo left but not much more.

#53 The End

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:20 AM

Dogboy,

We may not see new highs (954,spx) but, i do see a bit of up before we fall apart. I'm short march and long jan. Got some Feb spx puts as well.

If we fall from here, so be it. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#54 slinger

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:22 AM

I found a good site that tries to explain Hurst cycles. It is a little theoretical, though.

#55

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:22 AM

Col Dashley, this was also in Le Met's stuff this morning.
*Sources tell me the Swiss have told bullion dealers they will not roll over their gold loans anymore. When they mature, they want their gold back

If leases are not rolled over, the physical has to be returned...

Also there was an anectdotal piece from a subscriber that had read an article in the Gulf News while in the UAE, and then seen it again in a German publication that 6 Arab countries are bringing forward the proposal of introducing the Arab Dinar as a currency as early as 2003 instead of the proposed 2010. They are planning to fix it to the Euro instead of the dollar.

My (very, I don't have a clue how this works) question for the stoolies is, if the commodities (oil) are priced in say dinars, euros in the future, will that force the US$ that are presently offshore (buying these commodities) to return home, and if so will that create an extra leg for the hyperinflation scenario.? Thanks in advance.

#56 torah man

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:22 AM

well, i posted this in the intraday and yesterday.

i did sell my bgo at 1.22 and missed its ride up to 1.3x during the day.

i am glad i made what i made, and i usually do not count money i did not make.

i still hold my hmy (formerly hgmcy) and I feel great about that. i will wait for a matching day like today to decide whether I sell covered calls or sell the stock before the pullback. i have grown fond of selling the covered calls every other month, as hmy almost always pulls back. i have sold it three times already and never been called out.

still holding my spx, qqq and klac puts. klac was down today even though the nas and qqqs were up slightly.

klac should lead them down.

thanks to thorass for pumping gold around here and keeping me in the game.

#57 torah man

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:27 AM

I found a good site that tries to explain Hurst cycles. It is a little theoretical, though.

hey slinger, you signature is longer than most other people's posts :blink:

#58 slinger

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:30 AM

Heh, heh, I noticed that too Torah Man. My bad. Gotta learn how to be short and sweet. I guess the wordiness is the engineer in me. I did use to work at MXIM by the way, way back when it was even turdier than now.

#59 torah man

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:32 AM

Heh, heh, I noticed that too Torah Man. My bad. Gotta learn how to be short and sweet. I guess the wordiness is the engineer in me. I did use to work at MXIM by the way, way back when it was even turdier than now.

yeah but now everyone will only see the shorter signature and think i am nuts, or at lest nuttier than i am. :P

#60 midnite lightning

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Posted 13 December 2002 - 12:46 AM

Mark,

Excellent work! A true masterpiece!

Well, well what a show!

This thing looks like it is in deep sh#t and no where to run.

They fought hard and all the pig wanted to do was lay down.

Even the mmís were all over the floor.

Miss piggy got kicked around something fierce even with all the hype.

The south bound train to hell is boarding now. All aboard!

Da boyz are steaming now; their tricks are about to backfire on them.

Canít see this market moving up much further. First logical stop at 8128 which is 50% retrace then we could go to 7900 looking for the 62%. Now throw in some earnings warnings and mix some remarks from al quackda along with saddamn about to get his assed kicked and we really have a mess.

Back awhile ago I believe it was Fokker who brought to our attention about jpm under investigation on some fuzzy math issues and mercy man adding to it saying this thing could surface this month. Just maybe we are seeing the ugly head beginning to show up with the move in gold etc. Just a thought.

Either way this thing is in heap of sh#t!

Be careful!

CYA





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