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Your Morning Meditation - From Blackbelt


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#1

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:16 AM

. . . Are people ready to hear that everything that is happening at any given moment in time is a repetition of the past and interrelated??? Trading the markets, is a way to discover yourself (as very well the book that Oy recommended awhile back by Bill Williams says). It's not about making money per se. It's about the journey. The journey of understanding ourselves and the others that participate in the markets. Money is the result of "understanding"

Posted Image And speaking of Oy, now it's official. Happy Birthday, Oyster!

#2 DrStool

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:19 AM

This is a rerun from IDS World Markets for those who missed it.

Good morning and Good Stool to all!

I will be posting my comments today in the new Stooltrading message board final beta. A permanent link to the new board is now in the left column menu. A link to the chart page is still in my signature below. If you intend to subscribe to Stooltrading, you can bookmark both links now.

Stooltrading includes Doc's frequent intraday observations re cmaps, cycles, and timing, on the Stooltrading message and chat board, where you can make comments, ask questions and discuss intraday cycles with other Stooltraders. Intraday Stool will remain free and exactly as is, an open forum for discussion of a variety of short term trading issues and methods. The Stooltrading board is limited to cycle talk.

Beginning May 5, access to Stooltrading will be by subscription only. Doc looks forward to seeing you there and hopes that you find the service informative and entertaining.

Access to Stooltrading will be restricted to subscribers only on May 5. A subscriber information and signup page will be posted on May 3, so that you can set up your account.

The Grand Opening Special subscription rates for Stooltrading will be $8.50 for a renewable but non-recurring one-week trial subscription, $85 quarterly, or $299 annually, on an automatic renewal (cancelable at will) basis. These options will allow you to go on and off as you wish on a weekly basis at an affordable rate, or have a more convenient, better value longer term commitment.

If you are an Anals subscriber, you can receive a discounted annual rate of $259 by using a special subscription page that will be accessible only to Anals subscribers. An announcement will be posted in the Anals.

Doc is not offering mail subscriptions to Stooltrading at this time. If you have special requirements in that regard, please feel free to email me.

Stay tuned for more announcements later this week.

Many tanks!

Doc

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#3 GregFokker

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:32 AM

SeeBSMarkethype: US real consumer spending up 0.1% in March By Rex Nutting
A rebound in spending on autos helped propel real consumer spending 0.1 percent higher in March after two months of declines, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. After adjusting for inflation, disposable incomes were flat in March after dropping 0.3 percent in February, the government agency said. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), consumption expenditures and incomes both rose 0.4 percent, about as expected by Wall Street economists. The personal consumption expenditure price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge -- rose 0.3 percent in March. The core inflation rate rose 0.1 percent.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#4 scottcardiff

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:36 AM

Indicator Oscillator is at 3.67 today, up from 3.05 on Friday and 2.61 on Thursday (2.50 area has marked tops in past). This is, in my opinion, a solild move for only two days and 20 SP points. I am still anticipating another move up. The perfect long set-up would be a very high TRIN reading or P/C ratio in the AM on the third or fifth day down (today or Wednesday). Additionally, a lengthy (2-3 weeks) basing period would be bullish for the markets.

In the past two days the following has happened to each indicator.

Daily P/C has moved from a .65 to a .87
Bullish Percent has stayed pretty level around 54 area
Nas stocks over 50MA has stayed level around 1050 area
21 Day P/C has stayed at .80
Bull Bear ratio has stayed at Bulls +8
Volatility Indexes have remained violently Dover Sole
20 Day Trin has stayed around 1.15

The biggest moves have been:

60Min TICK 20MA has moved from extreme overbought to neutral
5Day TRIN has moved from Dover Sole to neutral.

In summary, until Bullish Percents roll over OR there are wild bull spikes in P/C, 5day trin and TICK, OR a lower top is formed on the charts, I am cautiously bullish. There is still the chance for a crash, which would be the result of not seeing the upside test that everyone pretty much expects.

#5 DrStool

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:41 AM

Suctors and Stoolwethers

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#6 GregFokker

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:47 AM

The Suctors and Stoolwethers have done more to put my mind at ease than anything I've seen all weak-end.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#7 blackbelt

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 08:57 AM

Good morning,

The trading plan for the week...

Looking to day-trade "long" all this week on the first sign that a short term bottom has been reached. I don't "see" that yet. I like the 893 price level but I have to wait and see whether it will be reached or not. (893--> 360 degrees from the 920 high). A ton of charts have "Holy Grail" buy setups either on the 240m charts or the daily timeframe. That's the reason for my "long" bias for this week. Even if I wanted to take short positions, there aren't any proper short setups to justify entry with reasonalble protection.

On the cycle front. We are approaching the intermediate term top projected for 5/11 +/- I'll adjust the plan as we approach that date.


Have a good trading day/week

#8 blackbelt

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:01 AM

I wanted to post the following chart to show the cycle that I follow that projects the 5/11 high. The top of the chart is the current market action and the bottom is the "cycle" which is based on past market action. The chart starts on December 1st 2002


Posted Image

#9 ThorAss

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:02 AM

Don't forget the Wanks. 800= Line in sand

Posted Image
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#10 wndysrf

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:04 AM

Blackbelt:

MMM is probably a low risk long this week. It should retrace about 50% of its move.

Also expect continued ramping of biotechs due to SARS hysteria.

Ideally, one more high TRIN down day would give us a good setup for longs according to 5-day ARMS.
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#11 Madame Wrecked Him

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:06 AM

SeeBSMarkethype: US real consumer spending up 0.1% in March By Rex Nutting
A rebound in spending on autos helped propel real consumer spending 0.1 percent higher in March after two months of declines, the Commerce Department estimated Monday. After adjusting for inflation, disposable incomes were flat in March after dropping 0.3 percent in February, the government agency said. In nominal terms (not adjusted for inflation), consumption expenditures and incomes both rose 0.4 percent, about as expected by Wall Street economists. The personal consumption expenditure price index - the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge -- rose 0.3 percent in March. The core inflation rate rose 0.1 percent.

And from Reuters:

Consumer spending grew at a seasonally adjusted 0.4 percent last month, up from a 0.1 percent gain in February ... However, the latest report from the Commerce Department showed the March increase fell short of private economists' expectations for a 0.5 percent rise.
...
The saving rate -- measuring the portion of after-tax income consumers put away after spending -- slipped to 3.6 percent in March from 3.7 percent.


#12 blackbelt

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:09 AM

Blackbelt:

MMM is probably a low risk long this week.  It should retrace about 50% of its move.

Also expect continued ramping of biotechs due to SARS hysteria.

Ideally, one more high TRIN down day would give us a good setup for longs according to 5-day ARMS.

wndysrf,

MMM is on my list for this week but not on the top. Way too many eyes on this stock all over the Net. The ADX on the 60m is over 30 which shows trending to the downside, the 20 EMA on that timeframe is at 125.5. The low on this move to the downside is not over yet, since there aren't any positive divergences on the 240m (the timeframe higher than the 60m trading timeframe).

Risky stock but I'm watching it as well..

#13 simple guy

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:10 AM

1X DAY POST... From Sunday comments

Disclosure: LONG NXTL 14.70 upside near term, pullback, eventuall to 18.60, and 20.50

Potential longs on decent pullbacks. CSCO, AOL
Others that look bullish ORCL

ST I see a pullback nearly over , and another final surge.

Lots of bears on Stoolville searching everywhere to confirm their top is in calls... and it may be in... but not according to my views... its not in yet on ANY of the major indices.

Also, I think the A wave bear market bottoms have already been seen, you will get another good drop on the SP and DOW for example, but they MAY not touch the Oct lows... in fact, it doesnt look like they will.

B wave is underway in the bear, which is a cyclical upward movement.... I dont mean its going to skyrocket next week, or next month, I mean as an overall trend... its likely begun and you have seen the initial Bear lows, with further lows much down the road...

That said, still lots of trading opportunities. Near term its going to be very foggy to trade though.

SG avoiding the Q's and SPY's and DIA's at this point and instead focusing on big cap techs that are poised to move upward over next 6-8 weeks.

CSCO, ORCL, NXTL my faves E wave wise. NXTL lined up the best NEAR term, but CSCO on any dip is a solid buy coming up...

SUNW has solid upside potential, but admittedly the relative strength is lacking. The stochastics are double bottomed though so if she does break out of the wedge, she will go ballistic % wise to the upside. However, I will admit its more speculative, so I backed down my position very substantially this past week... preferring to go with higher % 6-8 week move on NXTL for now, and probably will buy more CSCO as well.

Cheers
SG



#14 blackbelt

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:11 AM

On the short side, potential candidates might come from the Healthcare sector (UNH, WLP, CAH, HCA). Just watching there for now

#15 DrStool

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 09:22 AM

Pre Market update in the Anals.

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