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#271 BAREister

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 02:36 AM

Blandishments from the CDC are somewhat suspect. If The BARE doesn't put it past Canadian authorities to POSSIBLY dissemble to prevent panic and economic devastation, he is FUR less confident in authorities in the U.S. He rather suspects that if SARS is a menace of true pandemic potential it will erupt, with intensity, here after a long period of denial. Why? Because the LAST thing the U.S. and financial markets/economy need now is something like THAT.

Time will tell if this is a real menace in Canada and whether all these Johnny-come-lately reASSurances and potential posturing are a patina or amply justified. The media, professional baseball, and, now, the sympathetic cadre of high medical officialdom are nearly tripping over themselves to demonstrate that it really, really, after all ISN'T THAT bad up there. Everyone's on the same msg/page/talking points. Sounds a bit orchestrated butt, it's just too early to tell one way or the other for the public, anyway.

Pardon the parlance butt (_)_) "WHO"'s judgment is better?

We're going to find OUT, wot?

"In the fullness of time," of course.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#272 BAREister

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 03:04 AM

QUOTE (BAREister @ Apr 28 2003, 01:16 AM)
300,000 Chinese in Toronta ALONE???


That's right.

And they're all coming to your town
:lol:

Oh, no PROBLEMO!!!

We have 300,000+ CALIFORNians here already!!! lmazzoff

Seattlites call 'em CaliFORNIC-OOOPS!!! TYPO! TYPO!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#273 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 03:32 AM

Nikkei: Limps yet another 20-year low

#274 longOnUranus

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 04:00 AM

In 25 words or less: where is the inflation?

AMR takes 1/4 pay cut, who????? is getting pay raises???? Yes, prices (insurance, energy) are going up, but how sustainable is this with wages DECLINING!!!! This will be across the board, mark my word, in 12-18 months. And where is the DEMAND to give co's the pricing power to inflate?

The FED pinting to inflate vs. the INEXORABLE deflationary writing on the wall. I've believed Puplava's inflating "things"/deflating "paper" scenario, but the inflation argument looks weaker and weaker. Has anyone done a calculation to to determne how much $$$ would need to be printed to "inflate" a (for example) 25% deflationary cycle?

To turn a 0.75 factor (25 %deflation) to a 10% inflation ("worst case scenario") would require a 55% INCREASE in money supply. A better case scenario?

0.90 factor to 7% inflation---> 20% INCREASE in money supply!!!!

Either scenario is staggering. My calcs are static and probably simplistic in the extreme. But the concept isn't. Give me a best case scenario which does not involve at least a 10% increase in money supply.

There aint one.

Deflation, here we come.

#275 longOnUranus

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 04:39 AM

dey jammin doze fewtoors...

Bears...dont pull yer hair out..its the Riverboaters trying to line up some Red Seven's for the open...a couple down days haven't built up enough short positions to cause more than a 50 point pop. It'll last 10 minutes. Remember, the "psychologically important 900 level" (to borrow a Y2K, Dow10K , NIkKEI 13K,10K,9K,8K,7500 ... phrase ) is now the "pathologically important 900 level".

Maybe some EOM ramping later today, but we'll see some red 'fore that happens.

Still mostly flat...bet a few puts for someone's lunch money. Hopefully, it'll be mine.

Nite, 'all.

#276 The brown one

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Posted 28 April 2003 - 05:26 AM

Buddha:

Absolutely priceless comments on Al.ROFLMAO.





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