Mark to Market Memorial Forum 4/17/03
272 replies to this topic
Posted 17 April 2003 - 10:25 PM
I appreciate everyone's input here at the stool,no matter what the opinion has been,especially windy's commentary.All opinon's,especially those opposite of mine have great value and deserve to be considered in any of my trades.
I am hoping to catch a monster blowoff to short into but I am being very careful.I took a wad of my trading cash and paid off my mortgage and my car.With limited funds at my disposal,I will try to get close to the top,while trying to avoid these monster gaps to the upside.
This bear market is hurting me personally too.Things are so slow here in atlantic city that I have only been getting 1 or 2 days a week at work through my union.I paid off my debts to lower my nut each month and still may find it tough to survive.To those that think we are in a recovery mode...It ain't happening for a long time.
The stool is my safe haven and has saved me money while learning lots.I just hope that I can survive this bear market without being one of it's unemployed victims.
We are all here to learn and that's why I am here.
Posted 17 April 2003 - 10:42 PM
Here is a piece of trivia for your model.
In the 70 trading days this year, we have had 46 days with a positive TICK over 1000 and 8 days over 1250.
Yet in 70 days, there has been only 1 day with a negative TICK greater than 1000.
Data according to Livecharts.
Sink 'em Baby
Posted 17 April 2003 - 10:55 PM
The Tick portion of my oscillator indicator is the 20 period moving average of the 60 minute Tick reading.
A reading of 500 or over is considered maximum overbought, or 1.00
A reading of 0 or less is considered maximum Dover Sole, or 10.00
A reading of 250 is neutral and scored as a 5.00
Obviously this correlates with your comments. There is a lot more interest in buying than selling. And truth be told, I've found it a lot easier to make money by going long deeply Dover Sole stocks at fibonacci extension targets. For example, MRCY today hit a fibo target at 18.75 and bounced over 10 percent in a matter of minutes.
And look what AMR did, as outlined by Oyster on the Intraday board. Up 300 or 400% in a matter of a couple weeks.
As Bearish as I have been the past few years, I am now seeing the light. The big money is made by buying Dover Sole stocks at fibonacci extension or retracement levels and flipping them after 10 or 20% gain.
Posted 17 April 2003 - 11:24 PM
And the Ass&Pee and DowJokes down a bit from Jan 1. All sound and fury, signifying nothing?
Posted 17 April 2003 - 11:26 PM
This is exactly what I am talking about.Titanic,
Why don't we start a forum to replace SG's forum - one where we find deeply Dover Sole stocks at fibonacci support levels and flip them for 10 - 20% gains?
Heck, SG bailed out of AMCC while I stayed in for an extra three days and got that 10% runup. CPN worked pretty well, but I was already in WMB and DYN which have done better. ELON has been a dog, but I also found ISSX, - which has run pretty well while ELON dropped.
I'm sure many of us could put our heads together and come up with at least as many good ideas. Why damn the darkness? Let's make some light!
Just remember...just because we don't short doesn't mean we aren't bearish!
Posted 18 April 2003 - 12:15 AM
I'm no major on full moons but I think Arch would say they can have a dramatic affect on people. I think we have witnessed it this week. I'm still trying to learn how not to react in a negative way to anyone's outlook. I think capitalstool can make you grow that way. No pain no gain.
And I do play the dong side - in gold stocks and indexes - so I appreciate the Yin and the Yang at the stool. Everyone is ready to short a top big time, but since I've been through it before - and done it early - I'm also learning to hold my guns for the right moment. I'm patiently on the trigger. I'm sure you can all agree with the experience. Some are doing it every day and some are doing it every so often.
One thing is for sure - I love that cycle channel experience. Surfers and lurkers get on board.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster
Posted 18 April 2003 - 12:22 AM
Doc, that was a candid and down to earth post.
With p to e ratios in the S&P at around 40 when options are expensed, the market is indeed way over valued.
I thought for sure that yesterdays intraday swing would indicate a top had been reached, but then again today, it was up yet again.
I must admit, with Mark taking a vacation away from the markets for a while, I did not know what to say.
Then I realized today..."Hey, Mark was trying to post excellent, article like posts EVERY DAY!...people like Navellier write articles once or twice a week and its perma- bull gibberish anyway."
Mark does not need to come up with intelligent, humerous market analogies every day. Many days all that is needed is "Huge intraday swing today. Will this be the cycle turn for the next down ward leg? Stoolies take it away!"
It was a joy to read Mark's comments because he feels a lot like I do about the economy, the waste, the markets, etc.
As far as SG, I always enjoyed his economic and market comments. I am sure he is not bullish because he wants to be but because his E wave count says he SHOULD be.
I would not mind having SG back at all. I do think he took a beating for saying that he was right. I think he did that because he took a beating for being wrong several times before that...when he was predicting market tankings while the market was going up. In other words, SG felt like he has to DEFEND his E waves and predictions by posting he was right once in a while.
With so many Alpha personalities, we are bound to have a disagreement or 2 once in a while. It should never be taken personally.
Back the market, the liquidity machine has propped up the economy wonderfully. But, the consumer looks to be finally tapped out. After listening to that CFO from Bank One, I realize that she knows something that others don't...that the consumer is probably already backing off.
Immigrants that can be paid less.
Imports from asian countries where wages are less.
Mass lay offs.
Consumer debt at stratospheric levels.
High gas prices.
Personal saving rate at 4%. End of last recession, it was 8%.
Enormous government deficits.
Politicians wanting dividend tax elimination to get a 10% market rally.(dividend tax should be removed but to look at it as a 10% market rally catalyst is foolish...the market is still over valued)
The final nail in the coffin would be the refi-trough drying up.
Susie Orman is telling almost EVERYONE to save enough money to live 8 months in case of job loss. She said that the reason is it is taking 8 months for people to get new jobs and get back on their feet again.
How many have this much saved? Not many...
There could be less posts tonight as many get ready for a long weekend and a trip to Grandmas...
Happy Easter everyone...
Posted 18 April 2003 - 12:28 AM
I've been watching the VIX and VXN myself. One of the reasons I held my short on the Q's from 26.30. Close today 26.82 with high of 26.98. Nervous? You bet! Question now is where to place stop. Someone mentioned a classic triple top. Thought I'd review Bulkowski's Encylopedia for triple top characteristics:
* 3 large distinct tops, well separated, often sharp spikes contrasting a more rounded-appearing valleys. True for the Q's, except that 1st valley is not rounded; has the island gap. But, Bulkowski says there is wide variations in this pattern so don't be too critical.
* Price variation among the 3 tops is minor. Center not significantly above the other two, otherwise a H&S. True for Q's.
* Volume trend is usually downward. Often flat near each of the 3 peaks. 1st peak usually has highest volume. True for Q's.
* Confirmation point is at lowest low in formation. Not concerned now, already short.
Obviously if prices move higher, the triple top is invalid. The question is how much higher. Above the 1st peak price of 27.38 or the 2nd peak at 27.20? A trendline across the tops givies 27.10.
I'm thinking I'll watch the cycle conditions going into 27.10. Maybe Doc will provide some comforting thoughts too.
Posted 18 April 2003 - 12:44 AM
No, no serpent today.
Stay away FURom Mayan ruins. Full of the deadly liddl basstids. And tASS>>>MANIA and ASStrawwwllllllleeyaaw.
The bulls are like the wildebeest at the edge of the Zambezi.
They know the huge crocs lurk but they plunge in anyway, counting on FURce of numbers to overwhelm.
Gentlemen, the danger (at sea) is always due to what lurks under the surface (waves, even arise from thence). There are big crocs selling, heavily into this MIRAGE.
There's TA to support it too. The rationale is over at Cramer's website if ya look in the right place.
HRFF ain't ADDED to his core short position, yet. He's fixin' to, here, in just a bit.
He don't think no ASStro is goin down this weekend, either.
Let them come, these bulls. Into the trap.
oh. LaBranche, evidently, is,allegedly, now under investigation, per the readerboard on the telly. HRFF went thru school w the heir thereto. MANY moons ago.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 18 April 2003 - 02:51 AM
I thought it was on this thread, however I can't find the post. It concerned someone commenting how they were watching Crapvision and some con artist was talking about strong earnings because exec's were more honest. The bullshit in this country is just incredible. More honesty and good faith intentions by corporate executives??? I've been reading articles in those mainstream investing resources by various con artist and just pure liars about honest accounting and other such horseshit. Nothing could be further from the truth.
FORT WORTH, Texas -- One day after American Airlines employees agreed to annual cuts of $1.8 billion, the cooperative spirit turned acrimonious Thursday as union leaders expressed outrage over newly disclosed perks granted to executives.
One angry union leader said if workers had known earlier about a pension trust created last year to protect executives' benefits in the event of a bankruptcy filing, they might have voted against the steep concessions intended to keep the world's largest carrier out of Chapter 11.
The executive perks, which included huge bonuses for a few, were disclosed late Tuesday in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. The filing was made after the scheduled end of voting on the concessions.
"We are appalled and just disgusted. It's the equivalent of an obscene gesture from management," John Ward, president of the flight attendants' union, said. Flight attendants initially rejected their share of the $1.8 billion cost-cutting plan but reversed themselves Wednesday after the company extended the original deadline.
Honest American Airline executives
Then at Sprint, many thanks
In an effort to trim payroll costs, Sprint Corp. is testing a "Voluntary Time Off" program in certain divisions of the company.
Employees in Sprint's global markets group, information technology division, networking group and corporate headquarters this week were offered unpaid leave in blocks of up to five days at a time.
In a memo to employees Tuesday, John St. Angelo, vice president for human resources operations, told employees the program is "strictly voluntary" and could "help employees balance their work and personal or family needs."
The memo about unpaid leave was sent to employees the same day Sprint filed details of former president Ronald T. LeMay's $5.7 million severance package.
Or how about from the economist.com
Corporate scandals and falling share prices have forced companies to rethink their executive-compensation schemes. And yet, bosses are still being paid sums that many shareholders consider indefensible: in America, top-level compensation actually rose last year
Despite the increase in pressure from disgruntled shareholders, and the scramble at many companies to rewrite compensation schemes, there is little sign of top-level salaries dropping in line with share prices and profits. On the contrary, median senior total pay among America’s top 350 companies rose by 10% last year, even as median total shareholder returns in those companies fell by more than 5%. If this is the amount of heat that executives are feeling after the past three years of scandal and value destruction, grumble shareholder activists, there is little chance that pay awards will be restrained once the good times roll again.
Honesty, ethics and character - America Today
Posted 18 April 2003 - 03:29 AM
Appreciate the comments.
Yes euros for oil, what a concept. Have been looking for this transition since 1999. One thing Bears, and Bears with a cheap set of plastic horns might keep in mind is, what currency am I saving my wealth in? IT, or LT, how much purchasing power are you going to keep, if there is a devaluation, or an all out run on the dollar from the rest of the world. Not to mention, the power of the printing press.
Making all of these gains, and just keeping even, or less so in international purchasing power, with an ever expanding, pedal to the floor fiat reserve. Combined with a growing hostility toward this reserve from the international economy, pushes me to the belief that a prudent diversification in real assets is the best method for wealth defense.
Oil Exporters May Seek Euros
Posted 18 April 2003 - 04:25 AM
Hello to every body. Its good to see the site getting maturity...
SG is correct many times than many of the people here and more over, reaches out to help the people . May god bless SG.
FWIW, IMO the exact indication for the market TOP is when majority of the people here stop renewing their subscriptions.
Long 2k ebay at 61$ is closed today. Im done for this year trading.
Goodluck to u all.
Posted 18 April 2003 - 05:08 AM
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
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