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Mark to Market Memorial Forum 4/17/03


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#16 Grizzly_Canuck

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 07:17 PM

So, to my bullish friends, if you have an opinion, state it, and back it up with what you know. You don't need to preach to the bears on this board and you better not gloat at their losses. This is their home.

Doc, thanks for clarifying the rules. I promise to abide by them.

So now, with no gloating or preaching, I believe we witnessed a major Bradley bottom on March 13 as per my previous charts indicating a major bottom on that day.

We are now 11% higher than we were at the Mar 13 bottom.

Bradley also shows a minor bottom on Apr 12. We are now 2.5% higher than the Apr 12 minor bottom. Both turns were correct to the day.

I see the Dec highs (950) taken out by early June.

cheers,

#17 lucy

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 07:25 PM

I know what happened to SG, but where did Bontchev go, and he better be close 'cause we need him over on the Golden Stool :angry:
lucy

#18 Sasquatch

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 07:26 PM

The market humbles the best of us one time or another..

I read an article on Yahoo today which stated that (October data used), most trades occur on the USDollar ($1.2T), followed by US Treasuries ($366B), followed by Equities ($70B), then Mutual Funds ($10B).. If this is true then we're not where its at playing stocks and holding mutuals.. Then I asked myself why Procto-Vision is dedicated to promoting the bull case for stocks everyday, if in fact the real casino is being played out by the Real Players in the currency and treasury pits.. Just who are the Real Players anyway? Are they dominated by Insurance companies and governments or a handful of Gekkos? What is their purpose? Does an understanding of the action in these markets hold the key to the direction of the lower level equity casinos? Is being an equity trader an automatic market sheeple by design?

So, it seems to me that if we knew the reasons behind trades in the currency pits, we would have the Holy Grail of equity trading, that being advance knowlege.. But then again I keep reminding myself that the market humbles the best of us one time or another..

:P :blink:

#19 Pee Brain

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 08:07 PM

bought something on the web and got 2 free weeks of IBD - some of the charts look bullish, but the volume doesnt seem to be building.

BTW doc, im gonna buy more gear, the 20-something chicks at the counter at starbucks stare at al's mug, but you can see they cant quite put the name and the face together. :P
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#20 Pee Brain

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 08:30 PM

thoughtful reading for bulls and bears alike:

http://www.comstockf...l/TheBubble.htm
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#21 BAREister

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 08:42 PM

Well, boyz 'n gurrrlz, Arch C is expectin' sumpthin' BIG in a negative way ASStrologically speaking during the next few daze.

This will be yet anUDDER MAJOR test of ASStro stuff. His last dire predix didn't pan out too well, IF HRFF recalls correctly, if he duzn't, well, apologies to Mr. C. (HRFF couldn't remember his 'rents new area code and wasn't sure about their new address either this mornin'. Too many brain cells gone KAPUTSKI, he wRECKons™. Sob!!!)

ASS to our 'dear'ly??? :D departed, who said he is "100% certain" of future pricing action in terms of specific targets:
best of LUCK. HRFF is hard pressed to be 100% certain about pricing action at all, save it's ultimate general direction, unless things change a.) dramatically and b.) hurriedly.

He 100% certain about some things, however. But he'll save most of that FUR a sunny day (since there are so VERY many rainy daze out here in Seattle, including today). However, here are a few: a.) Having Dan Quayle as Veep was TRULY SCARY :blink: :shocked . b.) Tammy Faye Baker's make-up takes the GRAND PRIZE FUR overkill c.) there are a lot more crooks on Wall Street than we're being told about :unsure: d.) it will be a small miracle if Wall St EVER cleans itself up and e.) ONE of these daze the Prechter-spectre and Mr Weiss are going to be proven RIGHT!!!!.......well, SORTof :P ....PROBABLY :lol: .
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#22

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:02 PM

The ease with which I slipped into the concept of shorting in early 2000 when every other trader I knew was a raging bull (and still are) and the fact I'm always hunting for tops makes me think that, like Doc, I'm a natural born bear. When I entered this site I did indeed feel as though I'd found a home. Having said that I completely missed the recent rally, NOT ONE LONG and there was $$$ to be made. As I trade for a living and need to go both ways I gave myself the lecture but I have the feeling I will always be happier short than long..

Well it looks like the NAZ boyz were determined to have their little rally. Let's hope they're happy now. We're closed here on Monday so I want to see lots of red over your way for our open on Tues :grin:

#23

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:10 PM

I'm new here, too shy to post until now.

Admire your bravery, Mr. Brian4.

I'm fully loaded on the short side, last trades placed into at the close today.

I remember watching Verizon, Cisco and Yahoo during the big plunge. I was too scared to go long. Sorry I didn't.

The VIX and VXN look the same now. Now in a deep plunge. Feels impossible for the rally to stop. But it will. The VIX and VXN move is unsustainable without a reversal of some magnitude.

You and I are alone now. The only ones remaining on the short side.

Right when you think you are going to wet your pants. Thats the time to make the trade in the most uncomfortable direction.

We will see how things go next week.


Titanic
Sink 'em Baby

#24 PileDriver

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:13 PM

I know what happened to SG, but where did Bontchev go, and he better be close 'cause we need him over on the Golden Stool :angry:

new one on me too. Dunno.

#25 scottcardiff

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:26 PM

scottcardiff,

Where did your indicator finish today?

Tentatively (don't have final tick #'s) it is at 2.61.

In the area of recent tops. Jan. '02 was a 2.50. March '02 was a 2.14 Dec. 02 was a 2.57

P/C ratio got crushed today. OE probably affects this ratio today to a large degree.
TRIN got crushed today. 5Day now at .90
Nas stocks over 50 MA way up.

The two indicators that are still middle of the road are SP bullish percent indicator and 20 day TRIN

More of an update on Monday AM.

#26 Injured Grizzly

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:27 PM

I'm new here, too shy to post until now.

Admire your bravery, Mr. Brian4.

I'm fully loaded on the short side, last trades placed into at the close today.

I remember watching Verizon, Cisco and Yahoo during the big plunge. I was too scared to go long. Sorry I didn't.

The VIX and VXN look the same now. Now in a deep plunge. Feels impossible for the rally to stop. But it will. The VIX and VXN move is unsustainable without a reversal of some magnitude.

You and I are alone now. The only ones remaining on the short side.

Right when you think you are going to wet your pants. Thats the time to make the trade in the most uncomfortable direction.

We will see how things go next week.


Titanic
Sink 'em Baby

You aren't the only ones still short. I'm nervous as can be but I'm still into May, June and Sept spx puts. They are close to the money but I am concerned about the upside here. All the indicators are overbought but that means nothing to a bull who cares nothing about earnings and valuation. In a mania prices can go far higher than they should. That is what worries me. I see lots of charts that look bullish now and there is a shot at SPX 970 on the weekly. If it goes there in the next three days, it could if it breaks above 910, I will be even more nervous. :(

#27 Injured Grizzly

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:45 PM

The other alternative is that today was all options related garbage and Monday will be the unwinding of it all. That will kick off a huge down move toward 800 over the next week. I am personally betting on this senario.

If SG is right this market may go alot higher than even what he is suggesting.

#28 Charliss

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:58 PM

Well, boyz 'n gurrrlz, Arch C is expectin' sumpthin' BIG in a negative way ASStrologically speaking during the next few daze.

This will be yet anUDDER MAJOR test of ASStro stuff. His last dire predix didn't pan out too well, IF HRFF recalls correctly, if he duzn't, well, apologies to Mr. C. (HRFF couldn't remember his 'rents new area code and wasn't sure about their new address either this mornin'. Too many brain cells gone KAPUTSKI, he wRECKons™. Sob!!!)

ASS to our 'dear'ly??? :D departed, who said he is "100% certain" of future pricing action in terms of specific targets:
best of LUCK. HRFF is hard pressed to be 100% certain about pricing action at all, save it's ultimate general direction, unless things change a.) dramatically and b.) hurriedly.

He 100% certain about some things, however. But he'll save most of that FUR a sunny day (since there are so VERY many rainy daze out here in Seattle, including today). However, here are a few: a.) Having Dan Quayle as Veep was TRULY SCARY :blink: :shocked . b.) Tammy Faye Baker's make-up takes the GRAND PRIZE FUR overkill c.) there are a lot more crooks on Wall Street than we're being told about :unsure: d.) it will be a small miracle if Wall St EVER cleans itself up and e.) ONE of these daze the Prechter-spectre and Mr Weiss are going to be proven RIGHT!!!!.......well, SORTof :P ....PROBABLY :lol: .

Bare,

Didn't see the dangling serpent today. I felt as though I were in a strange land. By the way, I seem to recall, from my Seattle days, that Gary Larson had a dangling serpent in his yard near the front entrance to his house. But then, he had a menagerie anyway.

Now, to leave the TA behind for a moment and move over to funnymentals, I happened to catch a post-market interview on Crapvision in which someone was declaring that the market was now heading onward and upward because now the corporate earnings are of a Higher Quality- meaning that, because of stricter accounting and a more vigilant SEC, they are no longer fudged and cooked. Investors now have a higher degree of trust. And, oh, I almost forgot- President Bush has a plan for economic recovery. ...Just another instance of feeling as though I were in a strange land...

#29 summoner

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 09:59 PM

No change in portfolio, Classic triple top on the Nazcrap with much lower volume on each "drive" to the top. Will be enjoying Easter weekend with the family then off to Vegas with them to make some coin at the Holdem tables. Bulls alot more nervous then bears at these levels? Happy Holidays and TRADE SAFE!
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"

Charles Shackelford
NC STATE UNIVERSITY

#30 Charliss

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 10:07 PM

The other alternative is that today was all options related garbage and Monday will be the unwinding of it

What my partner calls the "garbage barge."- It's always headed somewhere else.





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