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Mark to Market Memorial Forum 4/17/03


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#1 DrStool

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 04:36 PM

In the last couple of weeks Doug Noland proclaimed Al's reflatulation efforts a success. Mark has gone into retirement, Bontchev has disappeared, and SG quit because he felt put upon by the bears on a bearish website.

To add to that, traffic is down 25%, new subscriptions are way down (but still growing, thank God), and advertising revenue has collapsed 90 to 95% since October.

If these aren't signs of a major top, I don't know what is.

When I started this, I envisioned it as a place where bears would always be at home. Some of us, including yours truly, are bearish by nature. No one understands us but those of like kind. If you are just a born bear, Capitalstool is your home and will always be your home.

As the board has grown the community has grown beyond "purebreds" to encompass quite a few visiting bulls "who swing both ways". While I welcome everyone's participation, it is encumbent upon those who trade both sides to understand that this site does have an editorial orientation which you may not agree with. If that makes you uncomfortable, then there are a myriad of message boards out there with a bullish bias, or pure trading bias, where you might feel more at home. Capitalstool's bearish orientation is not going to change any time soon.

When I present my analysis in the Anals, I try to do it in a neutral way. "Here's what I see. Here's what I think it means." If it's going up, I give price and time targets and if it's going down, I give price and time targets. I don't lecture, I don't preach, I don't gloat. I don't remind people of when I was right, and like everyone else, I hope to hell people forget quickly when I am wrong.

I have no quarrel with differences of opinion when it comes to the markets. People like Oyster, BB, Bontchev, machinehead, yobob1, and many others have disagreed with my market opinion, and it has never been a problem. While I have blocked a handful of people from posting, less than 10 in over two years, I have never blocked anyone from posting because of their market opinion. Some people have gotten angry because they didn't like my response to them, and have chosen to leave. I have also deleted posts that I felt were gloating over an up market. Very irritating considering that it's rubbing it in the face of most of the paying subscribers who are solely responsible for this site being here.

So, to my bullish friends, if you have an opinion, state it, and back it up with what you know. You don't need to preach to the bears on this board and you better not gloat at their losses. This is their home.

We are bears because.

Just because.

If you want to converse from a neutral or bullish bias, that's fine. Just understand that you are in the bears home, and be respectful of that. If you make a profit on the long side, more power to you, but please don't throw it in our faces. Everyone has his or her turn in the barrel in this game.

And to you, my fellow true believers, I say live and let live. Some people of the bullish persuasion actually do have something intelligent to say. They may actually be right at times. (Although I don't think this is one of them.) Listen respectfully. No personalization of responses.

Be the bear.

Be the ball.

Happy Pesach and Happy Easter!


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#2 BarBu

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 04:44 PM

It takes so long to realize there are two horns out there... not his fault Le.

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#3 wndysrf

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:04 PM

Today I was living a normal life, working my real job, enjoying the fine weather, and happened to be strolling by the Arena, and I heard the usual roaring crowds, pandemonium, and hysteria.

I decided to take a peek inside after the conclusion of the festivities, and found that nothing has changed.

The same old tired used car salesmen, insurance adjustors, Best Buy car installers, and local congressmen were chasing the Supermodels and the Asian Exotica up to the VIP room.

Once again, after repeated rejections, hope remains alive. These guys actually think they are going to take these girls home. The girls, experts at deception and fakery, used the proper “body language” and “beat by a penny” lies to conjure up the Animal Planet Herd, and got the pack moving.

Of course, rumors of some bad Philly Fed steak threatened to spoil the party, so the usual futures jamming came in to mainline the Viagra.

These guys are going to wake up next week to find that once again they have been pick pocketed, rubadubbed, and given fake cell phone numbers on a card that says “call me”.

Fascinating how little changes.

Fascinating how the Atomic Particle Accelerator has no speed limit, the Paper Pyramid has no height restriction, and Riverboating is available on any and all street corners.

Oh, the horror of peeking in just for 5 minutes……

Oh, the horror of wondering how hard the Kremlin Torture Rack can be stretched.
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#4 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:07 PM

Nice intro, Doc. I'm a pessimist by nature and a value investor by nature, but I don't know if I'm a bear by nature. I have gone entirely long until 2002, focusing on sectors that could rise. I didn't realize the true magnitude of the problems until just recently. I'm a full-fledged bear, no question, but like Fleck I look forward to being able to be a sensible bull some day... *crossing fingers*.

#5 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:11 PM

The same old tired used car salesmen, insurance adjustors, Best Buy car installers, and local congressmen were chasing the Supermodels and the Asian Exotica up to the VIP room.

Once again, after repeated rejections, hope remains alive. These guys actually think they are going to take these girls home. The girls, experts at deception and fakery, used the proper “body language” and “beat by a penny” lies to conjure up the Animal Planet Herd, and got the pack moving.

Not only won't they be taken home, they're 100% fake. Chests, noses, cheekbones, backsides, those ladies are pure Silicon. But men, being men, why would they care?

#6 morass

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:16 PM

Doc, your great. Mark, thanks for looking in, good to read you again.
Funny how I have read here how we would know we were at the bottom when…whatever happened. But we never talked that much about what it would look like at the top. Well, I quit, just kidding, I hope. It looks more and more like SG’s wield ass bullish projections may come to pass over the next days. It is too bad he bugged out but he needs to learn an old saying that is good to remember in all sales. A man convinced against his will, is of the same opinion still. He probably got more people to look at his work and think about what he was saying on this site then he ever will on a bull site. SG if you want to sell and you want to build a following you must get in front of people who don’t trust you. When converted, these are your best customers. Am I preaching at you?
Will miss SG and hope he returns as he is truly appreciated here. Miss Mark too. But we have OY and BB and we are all still stuck with Doc.

#7 FeedFool

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:30 PM

Save your main firepower until the 28th April.

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#8 FeedFool

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:51 PM

We will find out on 28th. Breakout or gap and crap?

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#9 Injured Grizzly

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:53 PM

Sometimes being a bear is something like this.

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#10

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 05:55 PM

scottcardiff,

Where did your indicator finish today?

#11 2 floaters and a sinker

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 06:08 PM

So what happened to that $15 oil were were promised once the shooting started in Iraq? Broke 30 bucks today. Hmmm.

#12 longOnUranus

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 06:18 PM

Time to take out the Harley, pack a few bags of silver, stuff my pocket full of 1 oz. gold Eagles and head out to the Ranch to relax, my face to the sky, talking to God and, later, feed my herd of wild gerbels. I must be surrounded by things of value to fight the demons of insanity this life continues to foment.

#13 speculator

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 06:42 PM

Doc - Thanks for letting us know how you really feel. There are pleanty of trading sites on the net but only one Capitalstool.com.

#14 brian4

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 07:03 PM

Doc's right it is like a freakin morgue in here. So SG quit again did he? He's done that before he should come back and realize that healthy debate gets his point across better than a daily sermon from the mount. Like the man says it's all in the delivery and HOW you say it. Bontchev will be missed he is very good technically like SG he speaks in absolutes but he can admit when he is/was wrong. Today was a throw away day, the end of racketeering week-Monday we find out if this is real or not. ME-I'm still SHORT stop 905-06 and still nervous ALWAYS nervous Man always. The VIX and QQV are at absurdly low levels-levels at which the markets shortly thereafter have walked off a cliff. Unless indicators don't work anymore they will this time as well. If we get stopped out we just sit and lick our wounds until the top, 905 should hold so keep the faith. We have never been in the economic mess we are in, credit was something that barely existed in the 30's-truth always prevails -it will this time Happy Holiday weekend to you and yours-Trade Safe!

#15 anjing bau

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Posted 17 April 2003 - 07:16 PM

The SG schtick may be more palatable seasoned with humility. brian4.. I see lots of stuff setting up from the short side (CECO,UOPX) some of the BBH components as well..... I like Feed's late april or early may tim frame for a turn in the market direction





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