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Pre-Crash Warning


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#31 phatbubble

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:33 PM

elsewhere, in a development in the field of Enhanced Journalism, an l.a. times editor's note reports that

"On Monday, March 31, the Los Angeles Times published a front-page photograph that had been altered in violation of Times policy.

The primary subject of the photo was a British soldier directing Iraqi civilians to take cover from Iraqi fire on the outskirts of Basra. After publication, it was noticed that several civilians in the background appear twice. The photographer, Brian Walski, reached by telephone in southern Iraq, acknowledged that he had used his computer to combine elements of two photographs, taken moments apart, in order to improve the composition.

Times policy forbids altering the content of news photographs. Because of the violation, Walski, a Times photographer since 1998, has been dismissed from the staff."

actual photos

Posted Image
Posted Image

altered photo

Posted Image
"Photographer Brian Walski used his computer to combine elements of the two photographs. The left side of the altered photo is taken from the top left photo, and the right side of the altered photo is from the top right one. Some residents on the left side of the blended photo are visible twice. The altered photo ran on the front page of the Los Angeles Times Monday."
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#32 wndysrf

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:36 PM

SG:

The only way a catastrophic collapse can occur is a short clearing event. A sharp spike over the 200-day, possibly in the form of some type of an island top on huge volume, would satisfy that requirement.

If in fact the futures are being "pushed" against the prevailing bear trend, then that effort is really setting us up for an even more dramatic collapse.

Without March Madness last year, I doubt we would have made such deep lows in July.

Similarly, without a 28 print on the QQQ's I doubt we would see a sub 20 print within the next 6 months.

Still flat, waiting on your signal and waiting for new lows on the VXN. Too scared to scalp any more longs from this level.
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#33 Charliss

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:44 PM

Mark,

Another informative, entertaining, and well written commentary. Thank you!

BTW, are you testing the waters with your new avatar? It reminds me of how you would scale into your positions.....1/2 short....1/2 long...

#34 phatbubble

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:48 PM

Phatbubble,

How come your first chart looks like 4/9 is the high/top but your 2nd chart say 4/5 is the top?

Also, here is another chart and it has 3/31 to 4/2 as the top. Which is correct. TIA.

http://clearstation....post_id=3972686

that's the same chart (steven j. williams' bradley model). i divided it up because of its obscene screen width.

the peaks you're asking about are all in different years: 4/9/01 (the first chunk of williams' chart i posted), 4/5/02 (the second), and 3/31/03 or 4/2/03 (the full chart of his you linked to).

i think the price high associated with the bradley peak of 3/31 or 4/2 came early (as they often do), on friday the 21st at SPX 895.89.

hope that helps.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#35 wndysrf

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:54 PM

Sideline Cash ready to "Pounce":

From Kennedy Gammage:

"We talk to those in contact with the Floor, and are told everybody is holding back, waiting, hesitant to do anything long or short, based on events and technical developments. We could have favorable news overnight from Baghdad and the market could explode up 200 pts. basis DJIA in a gap opening. Mutual Funds, hedge funds, all the "players" have orders placed above the 200-day Moving Averages, so any penetration to the upside (and we're not that far away on the S&P and others) of those closely-watched averages would trigger a firestorm of buying. The Nasdaq 30-day MA has crossed up above the 200-day for the first time in a blue moon, and there's an island reversal directly above the crossover that could provide upside fireworks if the fuse is lighted."

And all of this is peppered, of course, by intervention at opportune times, whenever they deem it appropriate, by the Powers-That-Be who see to it that the markets never stray too far from what they consider to be the Straight-And-Narrow."
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#36

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:55 PM

SG,

Glad to see you are staying, and that your post is calm.

Keep up the GREAT work!

#37 brian4

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 07:55 PM

Still short( just a few SPOO puts) I think we see a drop to 850 to set the stage and then the final bounce-now SG is right in that once we take out the March 21 High we are on thin ice it can then crap out there orcan rattle on up tp 920-30 at the extreme. I don't think we go over 905 but we will see. Having said the above any event that blindsides the markets will stop any up move in it's tracks. This rotting POS is ready to fall off the cliff-if we go to 900-905-it's the Last Hoorah! Trade Safe!

#38 BAREister

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 08:03 PM

If they're so many buy orders above the 200 day mvg avg, then why didn't they trigger when the NASTY punched thru it?

smart $ wont commit to buying unless that average can be penetrated and HELD and geopolitical fears are abated enough to justify plunging in a.) heavily and b.) FUR more than a nanosecond, i.e. FUR a matter of weeks or months.

so far the 200 day avg on the NASDAQ didn't hold, once penetrated and we've had two failed attempts that didn't even clear 890 on the S&P.

War gods rule, gentlemen. And they are heartless with bulls.
They are allies of bears - in THIS market, anyway.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
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"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#39 The End

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 08:04 PM

I agree Brian. We are close.

Have a great weak-end all.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#40 Crapper John

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 08:17 PM

Been shopping for a new trading platform/broker. Leaning towards Tradestation. Understand its highly flexible w/ regards to programming indicators. Must have scalable charts and ability to display centered (lagged) moving averages with offsets. Any advice would be appreciated.

Tanks :)

#41 wndysrf

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 08:18 PM

So close to the 200-day.

Why doesn't the FEED do a $35 billion 28-day Repo Blast now?

Why not punch the futures really hard, enough to gap us up 20 points on the spoos?

Why didn't they do any big Repos today when we are so close?

It's now or never time for the Working Group.

If they are going to punch it through, then Monday is the time.
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#42 soup

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 09:01 PM

with cash levels at 20-25 year lows ( 4.3%) I just do not see all those cats on the sidelines. In fact the only fear present is the ever present fear of being out of the market.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#43 Pee Brain

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 09:01 PM

Been shopping for a new trading platform/broker. Leaning towards Tradestation. Understand its highly flexible w/ regards to programming indicators. Must have scalable charts and ability to display centered (lagged) moving averages with offsets. Any advice would be appreciated.

Tanks :)


try www.elitetrader.com

traders there have rated different platforms
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#44 GregFokker

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 09:09 PM

Gotta chime in here

SG is perma bear, and getting ready to go massively short, let me start with that.

Now, SG still thinks we have some legs to finish C wave up. My topping day is April 9 intra-day.  There are lots of fibonacci reasons for that day, I wont go into it as I have on my thread already a bunch of times.

Suffice to say... there are gaps at 27.17 that must be filled... and gaps at 25.50 area as well on Q's.

C wave should at a bare minimum, fill that 27.17 gap and go over the March 21 highs of 27.38... even if only 5 pennies or so... 5 pennies over would be .786 of the Dec 2 top retracement, and about the top of the January wave 2 move as well... so its possible to end the whole 9 yards move up right there...

Also, 28.77.. seemingly a ridiculous number I have out there... has alot of fibonacci features.  .618 times the A wave point move up to Dec 2, which is typical of C waves.

.382 retrace of the 3rd major wave from March 02 to Oct 02, typical of 4th waves (which I think the Q's are in from Oct)

The level at which the A wave topped on Dec 2 as well...

And, counts with my impulsive 5 waves up as a top of a 3rd wave, where I think a 4th wave drops, and 5th wave follows but no higher than the 3rd...

SO... fwiw... we should have one final move up to complete this thrust up.... 27.43 probably a minimum to satisfy E wave rules.... and as high as 28.77 to satisfy some others and blow some bears out ST

Then I agree with y'all... we are setting up for a calamitous collapse of hysterical proportions.

The first of which is a gap fill to 25.53.  Q's are far from overbought... indicators are not solidly negative ...YET

Cheers

I tried to buy the dip but got scared at the last moment. Good thing I didn't- QQQ was at 26.30. Waiting patiently, and watched 25.90-26.00 hold as support. Closed the last of my puts and went flat. Thought of going long, but the lack of loft on the bounce made the market feel very heavy, and I started thinking of the low p/c ratio, the generally bullish slant to the COT report, the optimism about the war, and the widespread bullish conviction... so I added 10 OTM May QQQ puts, chump change, and closed the compuker and bailed at 3:30. Mostly on gut reflex. If I'm wrong, I'll quintuple the position higher up. If right, at least I won't be flat for a decline.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#45 Pee Brain

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Posted 04 April 2003 - 09:13 PM

there was an post today on IDS today about AMCC. the stock may be a deal, but i believe that not too long ago i read that they are selling off expansion sites in poway (socal)... that cant bode well for future business.

from ron pebbles at prudentbear.com: home depot, nationally reknown for its selective hiring practices :P for intellectually challenging stocker and cashier positions :mellow: , expects appx. 10 applicants for every 1 of the +/-150,000 slots it expects to fill this year. :blink: also, people are just qiving up on job searches - of course, according to the govt they are not unemployed - so from the labor dept's POV, if everyone stopped looking for work, we would be at full employment.

mark, great writing today.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.





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