198 replies to this topic
Posted 10 December 2002 - 06:19 PM
NYSE Advancing Issues vs. Declining Issue.
Would this chart be useful to Stoolies a couple times per day? However, I make no firm commitments...kinda like the TICK/TRIN charts.
Posted 10 December 2002 - 07:56 PM
I guess I'll do the trial. I'm thinking of "prospecting" with VectorVest. VV is great at "trolling for turds" to short using a consistent screening strategy. Since it is not that great at ST technical timing entries/exits I'll put whatever short candidates it finds into an OmniTrader watch list for further technical analysis and follow the technical sell signals.
I'll let you know how it goes.
Posted 10 December 2002 - 08:05 PM
I hate AMAT, being a former employee, and I just want to make money off these bastards.
Looking over it's chart for the last two years, it rallies for a long time once it starts - like from Oct. into Feb/Mar. And in looking at the chart and seeing the gap overhead at 16, and assuming this stock is overpriced and in a corrective ABC up of the downtrend into oct. 9th - A was up 8.65 pts from 10.26 low to 17.91 high, B was down 4.25 pts to 13.7 yesterday (50% retrace of A).
My theory is that it is that IF that support holds AND we are actually in an ABC correction from Oct.9 low, THEN
IF C = A the target price would be 22.35.
IF C = B then target price would be 17.91
Just filling overhead gap gets you to 16.
If support does not hold, then downside target is the gap at 12 or so.
On those assumptions, I bought at 14.0 yesterday with a presumed low of 13.8, which actually went as low as 13.7 where I almost dumped it, fearing it was going for a greater than 50% retrace - which it still may do.
But my thinking is to risk .5 pts to possibly make 2, 4 or as many as 8.5 pts. Rather like a gold stock trade in my book. And a good candidate for a hedge, with a tight stop at 13.5 and wait to buy back at 12 or so.
I think the pig may eventually go down as low as 5 - 7.50 for a good buy point, but that rarely happens in the semis.
Look at a 3-5 year chart. Then look to a shorter term view to see if you can see the putative ABC forming now.
Anyway, you guys were posting your thoughts. Mine is that it is a good of a candidate for a hedge against my BEARX as you are going to find in the NDX. However, it will probably break down and I will be out a few bucks.
But what worries me is that with gold breaking down (probably down to support in the triangle), and AMAT looking like that - I find it hard to believe that the NDX will crater significantly. OCICBWAUA.
Anyone else see that or some thing else I am missing? I wish I could chart it for you, but I have not the tools to do so.
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