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Symbolic Of The Perma-Bear Ultimate Fantasy?


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#256 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:35 PM

they first switched net short June 2000 or so

http://www.vtoreport...ntiment/cot.htm

#257 The End

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:58 PM

BARE,

July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move. Intermediate point of reference is May 2003. If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... :D ) is over.

Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/-

If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years.

I discussed that 2010 date for the past three years with people. I'm glad we agree. The call to new highs or close to them is Neely's thought as well. I doubt nasdaq will succeed in that though.

Peace
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#258 BAREister

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Posted 29 March 2003 - 04:12 AM

Oy hASS been talking about July 29 ass having great cyclical? significance, too - a nadir fraught w sinister menace beyond mere market convulsion(s). BARE's birthday is the next day...

Who knows what the next YEAR will bring let alone the next 3-4 years or 10 years!!!

One DAY at a time, wot?

a strong bull market in the next 3 - 4 years is entirely possible.

Likely? Doesn't SEEM that way but little if ANYTHING in life is what it SEEMS.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#259 strikerm3

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Posted 29 March 2003 - 09:07 PM

If this is a net short to net long switch by the commercials, not sure it is the first switch long, you would want to wait for a pullback next week on the SPX, check the commercial position and go long if the commercials are still net long and the SPX dropped week to week. That is how the COT trade was explained to me. Don't go with the switch until the SPX pulls back and commercials still long.

does this mean you need to wait till next friday t get the next report? just wondering.

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Posted 30 March 2003 - 08:02 AM

July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move.  Intermediate point of reference is May 2003.

A high in the April-June timeframe (most likely - the end of May), followed by a low (below the October lows) in the July-October timeframe (looks more like October to me - but I could be wrong; let it be July) agrees 100% with my own analysis.

If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... :D ) is over.


I would agree that this is possible. I disagree that this is likely. I think that it would take at least one more year to end this cyclical bear.

Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/-


Technically, I very much disagree. In fact, I see 2010-2025 (more like 2017) as the end of the secular bear market.

However, I can see some fundamental reasons for the real collapse to start in 2010+, so I'll concede this one as simply being too far ahead in time for me to see clearly.

If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years.


Near its all-time high within 3-4 years? The NASDAQ?! No bloody way. Physically impossible. The Dow - maybe. The SPX? I'd be extremely surprised but I wouldn't rule it out as impossible. But the NASDAQ? It would require a maniacal bubble equivalent to the last one. Never have two bubbles followed each other so closely in the history of the markets. It ignores the tremendous overhead supply of those who held onto their long positions forever and are anxious to just "get even". No bloody way. Ain't gonna happen.

Regards,
Vesselin

#261 DrStool

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Posted 30 March 2003 - 09:33 AM

The fact that the commercials are net long is extermely bearish. See the my comments in Mark to Market and the Weak End Anals.

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#262 BAREister

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Posted 30 March 2003 - 02:43 PM

That's good to hear, Doc.

This bear will trip almost everybody up beFUR it's done with 'em.

"Dead" (pardon the parlance in light of the parlous circumstance/times) ahead we have a test of:

1.) Commercials net long position
2.) EWave theory

Lettuce c what The Fates, Three, decree FUR thee and me, shall we?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger





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