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Symbolic Of The Perma-Bear Ultimate Fantasy?


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#241 Dustbowl

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 05:45 PM

Commercials are now net long.

#242 anjing bau

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 05:49 PM

GLG Numero Uno best performing DAu 29 stock for this Bull market. Next are SSRI, GG, RGLD,RANGY,GOLD,GSS.

And to all,

Guten Naben

If the esteemed Dr Au likes GLG well enuf said!!!

#243 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 05:49 PM

Take a look at what Soros posted

http://www.capitalst...t=ST&f=7&t=1900

Dustbowl, now even the Commercials are covered and long for the ride to hell.

Everyone is on board for the big rally it seems or as is required before the next big move down are they all on board for the ride to hell?

I interpret COT the way Doc does, not really good for the market. Short-covering potential to prop this PIG is now non-existant. All potential buyers depleted. LOB.

#244 Tig 'Ol Bitties

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 05:51 PM

Did the Commercials go net long SPOOS this week? If they did, uhhhhh.........

Yep.

#245 blackbelt

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 05:54 PM

I don't pay much attention to the COT report because I can't tell what is real buying and what is hedging....BUT... some time ago I read that the Commercials never get either long or short at the exact turns. They are usually early. I believe it happend in the 2000 top (they were short in advance but I don't recall how long). If that is correct, the low is out there (July ??? :D )

#246 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:01 PM

Very good pt BB. They do position early because they are large and can, and actually have to b/c of their size. :P

Arch Crawford's prediction is a major low around November and then one of the biggest longest rallies we've seen in years (months, perhaps 1-2 years long). Perhaps they are prepping for it now.

Either way I'd suspect a big drop beforehand will occur.

#247 BAREister

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:01 PM

the low is out there (July???)

July of which year, this or last?

out there as in past or future?
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#248 blackbelt

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:05 PM

BARE,

July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move. Intermediate point of reference is May 2003. If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... :D ) is over.

Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/-

If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years.

#249 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:07 PM

Wow, that is so cool BB.

#250 Dustbowl

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:09 PM

If this is a net short to net long switch by the commercials, not sure it is the first switch long, you would want to wait for a pullback next week on the SPX, check the commercial position and go long if the commercials are still net long and the SPX dropped week to week. That is how the COT trade was explained to me. Don't go with the switch until the SPX pulls back and commercials still long.

#251 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:13 PM

Tanks, Dustbowl...sounds logical.

It's oh so becoming clear.

We still need that "terror low". So damn scarey that even we'll find it hard to buy :P

#252 blackbelt

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:13 PM

Got to go...

Enjoy the weekend ...

#253 machinehead

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:17 PM

many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years.

That is EASY if the 'Bernanke put' is exercised ... tens of billions of T-bonds bought with money created out of thin air. Could happen in 3-4 months.
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#254 Dustbowl

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:18 PM

For the record, I do not have trades for this method from June 15, 2001 through now. The results prior to June 2001 were 44 trades, 38 winners, beginning July 1986. Not many trades, but some were huge. FWIW

#255 PileDriver

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Posted 28 March 2003 - 06:22 PM

BB, we'll know when the low that will finish the bear or at least the "first leg" will have arrived....the mainstream media will finally recognize it and will be telling everyone to buy Bear funds, the end of the world is here. :lol:





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