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#1

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 08:30 AM

First, the official Welcome To The Promised Land:

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And now, on to business:

Quote from DrStool (on the subject of dropped posts) Posted: Nov 25 2002, 04:08 PM EST

Too many simultaneous posts cause a bit of a problem it seems. This is a server processer issue, and unfortunately, nothing I can do about that.

It's extremely frustrating.

When the board hangs, the thing to do is back off for a minute.



My suggestion if you are posting something you'd rather not have to recreate if it disappears into the Phantom Zone is to copy or copy and paste it just before you do the deed. This has been SOP with me for months for all of my opening commentaries.

#2 Charmin

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 08:39 AM

Tech Indicators Deteriorating Dan Ascani
He gives a 16 day cyle bottom on December 5, 2002, +/- 2 trading days.
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
A true Master averts disaster

#3 Bearman

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 08:56 AM

Today is fib turn day. I say turn this Mother out! :o

#4 DrStool

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:12 AM

Good morning!

Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool are posted (daily by 7:30 AM NY time.)

Stoolwethers are posted (daily by 8:30) Suctors will be posted around 9 AM.

Pre market outlook will be posted at 9:15.

Please, go to your control panel and reset your avatar, and update your personal profile settings. Add your birthday if you want presents from hundreds of strangers. Please enable receiving admin email in your email settings. Please update your signature if you see code tags in it.

If you are not registered, please do so. If you were registered on the old IDS, you are registered here. Please log in. Guest posting will be disabled after 12/7.

If you want to try things, use the Try It Out forum.

If the board hangs back off for a minute. Do not try to repost immediately. Your posts will show up! Unfortunately I am going to have to limit the file size on image uploads to 50K. That should help.

Many tanks to Gladiator!

I will set up the other moderators today.

Finally, Please, HAVE A GOOD TIME! :lol:

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#5 sweefraapp

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:23 AM

I just caught part of Ben Schwartz (Chicago trader) this morning, but he is expecting a roll over after this normal bear market rally.

#6 simple guy

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:23 AM

A word on Fibo Nacho's

Leonardo of Pisa is responsible. He was born in 1175 AD in Italy. The son of the Bonacci family. Therein, he was nicknamed "fibonacci"... or, Son of Bonacci...

He came up with the 3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144... etc sequencing.... time and spatial relationships that exist throughout the universe.

Now R.N. Elliott, the father of Elliot wave theory combined Fibo Nacho's with Wave psychology. He studied the markets for 75 years to determine patterns in waves. He correctly called bottoms and tops in the 30's...

So... that brings us to today, Nov 26th. 34 trading days off the Oct 10 bottom, a Fibonacci turn date if you will.

E-wave wise, this wave 2 corrective move is near complete. The retracement either runs another 2-3% higher on the SPY, NAS, and DOW (which looks like it may) or it ends today as the top of this Wave 2.

Wave 3 is going to be the mother of waves down... to all new lows on all indices.... this is my take

She either begins at today's close, or Dec 2nd... god knows everyone including Abby Joseph, and now Barton Biggs have turned bullish.

This is not the time to panic if you are a bear....

P/C ratio 10 day moving average falls below .66 likely today, indicating yet another bear market top....

#7 simple guy

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:31 AM

From Raptor Research Group (EWaver's)

In the bigger picture, because a decline was expected into the end of the month and the markets rallied instead into this time period, the outlook has turned even more bearish as the indices form a major top. Only a pullback into the end of the month would have allowed another rally in a few weeks. The outlook for the next 6 months suggests the index will be making new lows in this time period and the trend is likely to begin as early as late next week.

Bottom line is all my indicators turned Bearish the NAS a few days ago, the volume spike we saw was a likely blowoff top, and I will be shocked if we don't see a reversal at 1490-1500 sometime today

Markets should not bottom until March sometime... the likelihood is earnings and revenue warnings will start next week, and first quarter estimates will be trashed again... consumers will not be spending as expected...

#8 simple guy

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:37 AM

Final note of morning, re NAS

I own the RYVNX fund, 200% short the QQQ. This fund is a great indicator as well. I entered most of my position at 1045 am yesterday at 57.39 per share. The high was $120 per share at last market bottom on NAS.

A quick glance at the chart shows its very Dover Sole (NAS overbought) My target is $80 per share near term...

That would place the NAS at 1200.... where I see a gap.

Keep it simple...

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#9 DrStool

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:39 AM

What the hell's the matter with you people. 4% GDP growth. Everything's great! :P

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#10 simple guy

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:43 AM

Barton Biggs ambiguous comments today

Barton Biggs, chief global strategist at Morgan Stanley, is somewhat optimistic about the market’s prospects.
      “I still feel this rally has further to go,” Biggs said on Crapvision, adding that he thinks the news about the U.S. economy is going to improve in coming months, which in turn will help to boost stock prices.
      If the economic news doesn’t improve market psychology could turn negative, Biggs said. “Worries about a double-dip recession and deflation will return and we could see the market’s averages sink back to their October lows,” he said — a deterioration that would be bad news for the U.S. economy.


OK... UH, YEAH... THANKS BEAVIS...

#11 GregFokker

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:44 AM

Sorry, y'alzz. Can't post the fuk-u-tures charts here.

"Sorry, dynamic pages in the [IMG] tags are not allowed"

Feel free to check em out in Night Stool.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#12 Bearman

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:46 AM

good news starting to be bad news

even if its contrived ie B.S. :lol:

#13 Rockhead

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:55 AM

Unfortunately I am going to have to limit the file size on image uploads to 50K. That should help.

Doc

I dont wish nor do I know if other posters will have the same problem, but a 50K uploaded image size (in jpg format) is quite a small image from my screen. Is there a file format which is more byte size friendly than jpg which this board will accept as an upload?

A 50 K image size is essentially not "workable" from my perspective (it measures 3.5 x 5 inches on screen) and would likely result in no image posts from my end. I simply cannot work with such small charts.

Not sure if the image size will also effect other stoolies (I would terribly miss FeedFool's wonderful charts). Hoping for a image size around 110 - 125K from my end. Personally, I would be willing to sacrifice avatars and signature lines if you need the space.

#14 Wyatt Burp

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 09:57 AM

SG, thanks for these posts. On fibber nachos, this is fascinating. always interesting to know a little history. Now if Wyatt could only understand how turn dates are figured out.
Hope this big ship turns around today.

"So... that brings us to today, Nov 26th. 34 trading days off the Oct 10 bottom, a Fibonacci turn date if you will."
Uhmm, ok Wyatt can see that.

#15 Guest_soup1_*

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 10:04 AM

kind of ot, but can anyone recommend a decent broker ( options and stock). Just got booted from mother merrill, they said I traded too much in my unlimted cma. Thanks





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