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#31 longOnUranus

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:33 PM

the way these bears are going bullish reminds me "The Birdcage" where Robin William's talks his gay mate into going straight for meeting his son's fiance's family. The guy couldn't walk, talk, or look the part 'cause he'd been gay way long. Likewise, we'd be the laughing stock of any bull site.

Admit it..YOUR A BEAR. COME OUT OF THE CLOSET. BE PROUD.

#32 Hypertiger

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:35 PM

They did it while you were shocked and awed ha ha ha ha ha...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#33 The End

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:38 PM

The commercials did NOT cover all their shorts.
Granted the decline in NET shorts on the big contract is unnerving but to say that they covered all their shorts is not even close to correct.

I want what your smokin' :grin:

We break the trendline on the monthly spx chart and i will concede a huge rally is comin' but until then it looks like wave "A" completed yesterday.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#34 K Wave Rider

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:39 PM

A lot of disbelief on the board that this could possibly be the start of a cyclical bull.

I posted some charts here that you probably should at least take a gander at, depicting the similarities between now and some prior cyclical bull beginnings.

Add into the mix a MASSIVE momemtum thrust, by nearly any measure, and the ingredients are definitely in place.

We will most likely get some pullback or at least sideway action from here, but unless the market totally falls apart very quickly from here, it is a dangerous time to be stubbornly bearish.

#35 The End

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:42 PM

From Larry Tomlinson's intraday site late Friday afternoon:

The wave overlaps from the 858 to 890s tells us this is a correction wave. That also indicates the entire wave from 788 to 890 is a correction wave and not the start of a bull market.


spx 5 minute chart
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#36 The End

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:06 PM

I'm kinda partial to this count. :grin:

http://www.polarpaci...rts/spxweek.gif
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#37 longOnUranus

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:15 PM

last post today-

the number of disbelieving bears at SPX 890 is about equal to the number of disbelieving bulls at 798. Sentiment "max pain" is 840-850 range (where neither are happy), which is where we have been most of the year. This is where the sideways range will take us back to for the next few weeks, IMHO.

what is needed for downward acceleration is loss of bearish market sentiment. Given the way the derivative/hedged/robot market works these days, loss of such sentiment is the ONLY way a significant decline can occur (quite rapidly, i might add). While an argument can be made we have all the ingredients for a bull rally, we ALSO have all the ingredients for a large move lower.

If we rally, and this signifies the bottom in corporate spending, I might finally be able to market a software product I've been working on, and other aspects of my business should get better. If not, then I'll make money on the short side in the market. That is how my life is hedged. Plus lotsa reserve cash. The fact that my life doesn't revolve around how the market goes (like most people) allows an opportunity to step back and look at the larger picture.

To me, it just hasn't changed much. Yet.

#38 Hypertiger

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:24 PM

They will run it up as high as they can take it then short in down as far as is needed to milk you all now that their primary source of income, fools getting into debt created out of thin air and paying compound interest on the manufactured fantasy...

they didn't make a new low this time... Why? to catch the fools that expected it...

Now all they have to do is break the December high... wiil they do it? maybe.

Me? I need no evidence, I will just keep stacking silver and when they are "Throwing it into the streets" I will be stacking even more...

The only American people Bush is going to protect are "Rich" American people especially the ones in the oil and arms industries...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#39 Rubadub

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:28 PM

What is the point of this board?

Is it to make money or always be bears?

My sense is a real change is happening in the mkts.

On a fundamental basis some Dow stocks have met

much of the criteria for a bear mkt bottom. GE has traded at a

14 PE, IBM at a 17, PG 21, GM 9 for an average of the four

at about 15. That is hardly expensive. And there are others.

All of the DOW stocks are not going to line up at a 14

PE all and once and ring a bell that the Bear is officially over.

It is clear to me that the war is signaling much more than

a military victory. It is signalling that the USA is THE

financial, political, and military power in the world

(like it or not) and we will only take so much. This will

cause a sea change in perceptions nationally and

internationally and you don't have to like it but you WILL

respect it or you will be trampled. Anyone on the wrong

i.e. money losing, side of this mkt is going to get killed.

The mail is being delivered: Don't Mess With Texas!!!

#40 GTNWORSE

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:29 PM

Hey Guys,
Just wanted to add my 2 bits as Brians ultimate contrary indicator. I'm someone who does not care which way the market goes, as long as I'm going along with it.
Having said that, it appears we might be on the verge of that cyclical bull stage I've often refered to over the past few months. I am a little concerned that it's happeneing with valuations as high as they are, and the economy appearing as shitty as it does.
I will not, however, argue with the market. I've been trying to go long for awhile now, as many of you know. The time to do so is when things look their bleakest, not their best.
We may finally be at that point, but I'm gonna be satisfied with catching the middle 60% of a move. I don't want my head handed to me trying to catch the bottom.
Be Well

#41 wndysrf

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:56 PM

Congratulations GTNWORSE.

If you held on to those longs, you probably made more money in one week than some make in a year.

Everybody should check out the Dow 30 charts from Intodeep over at Clearstation. Some of the moves are simply mindblowing. Check out the huge volume piling into these stocks.

Dow 30 Part 1


Dow 30 Part 2


Dow 30 Part 3

Market bottoms are accompanied by continued bearishness and disbelief.

The following are still bearish after the giant move:

Alan Newman
James Puplava
Comstock
Damon Vickers
Bob Prechter
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#42 anjing bau

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 04:03 PM

Posted Image

Here is one of the real drivers in the market right now. Between 3-4 on friday over a 900k shares kicked through the exchange. you had a new high on expanding daily volume. look for a retest of the breakout on light volume. new price target of 142 +/- based on the marekets doing an ABC corrective rally of the recent downtrend. time frame to complete this correction is the early part of May. then we are back to the downtrend again......

#43 anjing bau

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 04:08 PM

Dow and SPX are now in the black for the year.... you have end of quarter next week so the fundies should be in accumulation mode look for some letdown early April followed by a blast higher into May.....

Fokker mentioned the world has not changed and there is some merit to that.....

Short term expectations have changed ... they have changed to the belief that the market is going up. 788.9 will hold. New lows won't be seen until the fall... when the market sees no recovery in store for the first half of '04

#44 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 04:12 PM

Fokker, Lou, Bare and Rayok-have it right-Mark how you can call a Bull Market after an 8 day binge that brought the averages up to their 200 day m/a is plain wrong. Yes-I'm still short and if we break 920 I'll go long for a bit this is far, far from over personally I doubt we break 920-we will see. This war and this rally is Hollywood manufactured all fantasy no reality. Simply put the world is broke and fighting a war using a credit card whose limit keeps being raised. The volumes of the rally say it all Joe Sixpack ain't buying cause he can't he is tapped. Enjoy Haiwaii while you can. Trade Safe!

Good points.

The US is flat broke.

Posted Image

And getting more broke at every quarter.

Posted Image

There is now way the US can pay back its debt obligations with an
economy that's now 83% services.

(Now there's an idea, ship tankers of tort lawyers overseas in exchange for oil :lol: )

The world is stuck with mountains-worth of US IOUs.

There may come a point where the only way the US can try to get it's major creditors
( China, Japan, OPEC, etc. ) to accept more of these IOUs at the current going rate will be at gunpoint.

Or devalue it currency.

As for Japan and it's market.
When the Japanese stock bubble burst, the Japanese had the largest pool of real savings in the world. 12 recessionary years later they still do. They are doing everything the can to avoid becoming a services-based economy.

This massive pool of saving enabled the Japanese gov't to try and prop up the market,and keep the interest rate near zero. The result has been deflationary.

In propping up the market, they've failed miserably.
In keep interests rates low, they've been very successful.

In the US, the situation is quite different.
These is no pool of real saving. Instead there is very real debt.
Attempts to prop up the market will work just as well as they did in Japan.
Attempts to keep interest rates near zero will, unlike Japan, probably fail due to the massive gov't, corporate, and personal debt.

Instead of deflation as in Japan,
my view is that the US will experience very significant inflation.

This war and the subsequent occupation will prove to be inflationrary.

#45 Stoolander

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 04:16 PM

As well as a McClellan Oscillator on the NYSE, I also do a McClellan on the Nasdaq, Dow and Amex and overall.

While the traditional NYSE McClellan is at levels (+167) we saw off the July and October lows, THE DOW MCCLELLAN IS AT AN OVERBOUGHT LEVEL (+4.46) HIGHER than the rebound off 9/11 (+3.63), that makes me very suspicious. This tells me one of two things:

1. This is short term w-a-y overbought (my personal belief) and must retrace.
2. We could pause, let the internals catch up to the price and ease the extreme readings and then continue higher.





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