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#16 Gamma

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 12:54 PM

Aloha BARE:

You must come to Hawaii to sample all the Asian Exotica, partake in some Maui Wowie, and get the big picture as Buddhadropping described.

The most successful market intervention and PigMen setup of all time just happened. The public has been piling into bonds the entire time, right at the top. Gradually, as the bond market topples, they will move their money out of bonds back into stocks.

The COT report shows that the commercials have nearly covered all shorts.

Bear market is over as long as the March lows hold. Cyclical bull now in control, until proven otherwise.

Look at a long term chart of MMM. Bull or bear action???

You must find some young, lustful, anxious girls coming out of the rehab clinic. They will be emerging in droves, ready for some manly action. Better get to the front of the line, so you can pick off the best.....

Aloha.....

I shorted Dell on Friday and looking at its valuation, it is a good short candidate. It can be a $5 share.

Long MCD? The following is the chart of MCD, it just rebound from the 52 week low of $12.12 and now has broken 50 week moving at $14.16 and now attempting to break resistance at $14.6.

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#17 bubbadropping

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:10 PM

Time away with my insatiable Swedish divorcee has given me welcome perspective on this silly game. TA is quite secondary at critical junctures. Sure everyone can talk about going long now but in reality 1100 points in a little over a week were missed by many. That ain't good 'science'. If you have to wait for some special crossing way up the road and lose heavily into it, that ain't a science worth engaging imo,sorry. Several members now crapitulating and setting up new 'targets' etc. Its like an addiction. There has to be a serious rexamination of technique. Brinkers move was intuitive and brilliant. 3 years in, understanding of History, Dover Sole markets,War on line, cheap oil prices ahead. Very simple and I doubt very technical at all. We have now entered a new bull cylce. People will probably continue to attempt to short the tops of it but I doubt that is the trend. We are in the early stages of a major political trend change in the world that is resuscitating the financial markets. As I have contended all along, Al Quaeda was more a device used by bush to pound the war drums than a serious contender in the World arena. Code coloring worked for the Matrix to muster support for the War and provide distraction. They are now in complete control and Bush should win by a landslide in 2004. Sorry. best of luck to all, anyone who can provide a list of good dongs with upside from here, it would be much appreciated. buddha

#18 Hypertiger

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:16 PM

You want a real education? Watch “Gone with the Wind” and study how “Scarlett” operates… Then it might dawn on you what it takes to build an empire…

My predictions are still rock solid... I see no miracle.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#19 mjkst27

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:20 PM

um er pictures please LoU?

#20 BAREister

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:27 PM

Wyndy, your exhortations w re to a visit to Hawaii are tempting.

HRFF hASS a cousin (bearing his name) who wuz, metaFURically speaking, the black sheep of the family, in that he elected to go to that place up in Boston, that UNMENTIONABLE someone else who attended was reFURring to re "the Yard" here SNOT a while back.

Well, dear cuz is a Bhuddist, inter alia. No WASP he. Theologically speaking, anyway. Bhuddist cuz has been yapping happily about the virtues of Hawaii FUR yearz and yearz and splits his year twixt Cambridge and Maui?, having bought a place there.

So HRFF has an EXCUSE to go. When HRFF's margin account improves he just might.

Butt, Wyndy, The BARE disagrees w your March lows ANALysis and characterization. Were we SNOT at WAR he might entertain it FUR a nanosecond, rather than a mentosecond.**

**The BARE will now PAWS to digress and say that, heretoFUR ™ he thot hisself possessed of an ATTENTION SPAN of the duration of a NANOSECOND fur simply ages, miss>STEAKunly believing that the shortest demarcation of time known. SNOT SEW!!! His Princeton Alumni Weekly (aka the PAW LOLOL) enlightened him just the UDDER day! Princeton, which has one of the best ASStrophysics ™ departments on EARTH was heavily involved in this recent discovery re BIG BANG. In the course of diss?>USSIN' ™ the myriad contributions P'ton's brilliant ASStrophysics minds made toward THAT it mentioned the early moments of BIG BANG and used the word MENTOSECOND. Or sumpthin' like dat der.

Well, time will tell, Wyndy. Butt don'tchew git yussELF too excited and lathered up about this bein' some new bull quite YET. Bear market rallies are NOTORIOUS FUR lulling FURmer bears into such a mentality. That's how the bear separates nearly everyone FURom their $.

We are now enveloped in the FOG OF WAR. maybe thou hASSt some special dispensation to view through that fog unlike UDDER ordinary mortals and pronounce what is to COME has changed character completely, Wyndy. Butt, at THIS point, your statements seem a bit .... rASSh ™.

Mortals in power rarely are ass powerful ass they like to think.
HRFF's read just a little too much history driving home that point.

Maybe the calculus has changed. Maybe American imperial might will rule the earth, at will, as this President intends it to.

Maybe.

Butt FUR now it's the time FUR the hurly-burly of battle.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#21 mjkst27

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:36 PM

Ummm, my small mind sees a small problema with the "off into the sunset" view regarding the Iraq conquest, and that is terroristic activity on Homeland soil. In other words, if there is terror retaliation for our attaq on eye-rack, then we might kiss our new-found consumer confidence bye bye, and welcome back Nolandian systemic risk. OTOH if terrorism is conspicuously absent in coming weeks and months, does this not expose the whole campaign as a charade, a figment of shrubadminimagination? Then what? Do we really applaud Cheney and His Gang of Number One Seeds for trouncing the backwater Tigris and Euphrates 65th seed play-in-gamers? Don't think so. I agree with LoU, the earphoria (gratuitous Smashing Pumpkins reference) will diminish soon, and then there will be questions and uncertainty.

#22 mjkst27

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:38 PM

Hey Zepp Ole Bear.....inquiring minds see you lurking and want to know what YOU think of this mess

And if you can croon like Robert Plant, that would be welcome too. Bring Jimmy Page and Bonzo along too.

#23 Charliss

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:40 PM

yes, yes, yes,  mkts can stay irrational a lot longer than one can stay solvent.   ANd yes, perhaps short is not the place to be,   but who wants to be long at these nose bleed levels?    Maybe flat, certainly, but this is a very dangerous spot for longs.

I now have both feet firmly planted on both sides of the fence. War and massive liquidity are adding fuel to the fire. Unintended consequences, surprise events and continued erosion of fundamentals could plunge the whole speculative mania into the abyss. Noland warns of credit market instability spiraling out of control fed ironically by the people intrusted to provide stability. Everyone is cornered and the only way out is to defend an indefensible position. The alcoholic paradox.

“I now have both feet firmly planted on both sides of the fence.”

(First, remove the fence)

This is fine as long as we do not serve two masters, which is confusion. This is fine as long as we are grounded in neutrality. No belief. No vested interest at the emotional level. No denial or defense of whatever appears at the moment on either side of the fence. This would be the middle ground, the balance point for initiating action. This is where the Buddha within says do not believe anything. Without belief, what is real can be experienced. Here, there is no bear, there is no bull. Only freedom…..and, let us hope, cash.

“Everyone is cornered and the only way out is to defend an indefensible position. The alcoholic paradox”

This is basically a spiritual dilemma. This paradox is present in all human activity (even credit markets) and is well illustrated in the case of the alcoholic. The drinking seems to soften the force of problems, and this is mistaken for the appearance of a longed for freedom. Alcoholism has actually been called a "thirst for freedom.”

When the giver of “freedom” begins to take away even this illusion of freedom, by causing additional problems, it is turned to in even greater devotion and hope that it will take away that which it brought. Romance novels about unrequited love are built on the theme that only the one who caused the pain can bring about the healing. Often too, political strategy is built on this theme.

Why is the wrong thing the very thing that is always turned to for a solution to that which the thing itself has caused? Because no other way is known. This is the spiritual dilemma. It is the place where there exists nothing but belief and certainity, and it is interesting that all this belief and certainity bring about such confusion, conflict, and great worry.

In time the illusion will be accepted for what it is, seen for what it is not. After all, this is the purpose of time, which is itself an illusion. Time is the context for learning, or unlearning. In time, only a real foundation will be seen as the answer. A foundation based not on belief but on knowledge, the experience of knowledge. Getting there will hurt for a while, but that’s how it works.

#24 longOnUranus

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:40 PM

buddha- i agree with what you say, and your insights are quite prescient. I actually thought, until quite recently, that Al Queda was a threat. When they caught that Joe Six Pack in a dirty T-shirt, hung-over, and found porno pix on his laptop, I thawt to meeself "this is our ENEMY???".

I would give your argument 66% probability. However, the downside is that, for the first time in this 70 year supercycle, the Matrix may fail vs. the forces of nature. If you believe we are still Masters of Our Destiny, then you are right. I have never believed that, spiritually, but our Destiny has usually meshed with what I thought was Manifest for our Country. But Today... we have to pump the bilge out of the boat daily (PPT). As the huge crowd swings from one side of the boat to another, it is now in danger of tipping over (at a true bear bottom, the crowd is very small and which ever side it is on, doesn't make much difference). This massive crowd, still "in" the market, WILL cause the boat to tip over this time (derivatives or bond market crash).

#25 mjkst27

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:45 PM

looks like I scared Ole Zepp right on outta here. Heh heh....maybe he went to find John Paul Jones.

#26 BAREister

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 01:48 PM

oh. "HAYWIRE" theory had better kick in here, pretty soon, too. We're at the point in this rally that it really could begin to gather mo' now that 200 day mvg averages have been pierced, slightly.

Of course, HAYWIRE theory inherently suggests that at least once it, too, could go HAYWIRE, especially in a bear market like THIS.

There seem to be a no. of folk around here who regard the advent of this rally as evidence that TA hASS stumbled, badly, in failing to presage it's nature or arrival.

Homage is being paid to events ass the great driver at the moment.

Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker may be right in that there is a tectonic shift aPAW.

HAYWIRE theory will have to be FURmly repudiated, FURst, however.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#27 Sphinxter

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:05 PM

My biggest problem is that I am saddled with the notion that investments must return your money, on a risk adjusted basis, at some point in the future. MMM at p/e of 26? MSFT with a mrkt cap of $250+B a p/e of 30 and a yield of 0.3%? Ford with a p/e of over 30 on a pro forma basis????

I don't care how long PPT/BoJ jam and jinx, sooner or later you have to ask, where will the money come from to buy this crap? Where will all this liquidity come from?

So I will admit to being a funnymentalist and have zero knowledge of TA and its many benefits. And I am a crappy market timer. I find that aggresive trading is a sure way for me to eke out hard won gains and suffer easy offsetting losses.

I ride the trends and can am betting my ranch on the LT trend which is a return to a bear market bottom of SPX p/e ratios at ~12 with yields >5%. We've got a long way to go.

These past 8 days do not signal a secular bull market start any more than I can dunk a basketball. All the fundamentals are wrong. A bull market has never launched from these nosebleed levels in all of history, why should now be different? While I will admit great respect for what the pigmen pulled off these last few days, I have grave doubts that they can prop this thing for much longer.

Even if they could, sooner or later a 10 Sigma event will push this all out of their control. A rogue nuclear event, a terrorist attack, etc. The market needs to exorcise its excesses and until it does, we will only be gyrating between different versions of the same illness.

This pig is going down.

#28 Hypertiger

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:05 PM

buddha

"Anyone who can provide a list of good dongs with upside from here, it would be much appreciated. buddha"

Just buy and hold the indexes... simple... eh. that’s all you need to do if your religious devotion to fractional reserve worship is where you believe you will find monetary salvation...

Cheap oil? Don’t make me laugh… The only cheap oil you will see is when the economy collapses and they can’t even give the stuff away.

Bush is an oil man and you think he is going to slap the faces of the people that put him where he is… When California was screaming for cheap energy did the great American patriotic ENRON corporation help you?…

I was in the oil business and know how the whole thing works… the greatest fear is low oil prices… “Wholesale cost” and exploitation is what this war is about, it will take years just to double production from Iraq and guess what? You know that blast of winter you folks got just recently? That was only a taste of what is to come…

Oilmen are pirates and the rigs are their ships.

If Afghanistan’s death toll in American soldiers stands at 1000 so far and they haven’t even got the pipeline built that will be blown up every month if they even get it built…

Iraq is so far going very badly… If the Iraqi people who have been bombed and starved by the US for 12 years don’t surrender give up their personal weapons and completely submit within 2 weeks… the 1.5 million to 2 million zealots that are waiting in Baghdad to “welcome the liberators” will fight to the death and Baghdad will be reduced to a smoking rubble pile…

Pray for the miracle so it will show up and I will see it and tell you about it…
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#29 morass

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:17 PM

Go long? How? For how long?
Long the ultra crap says Mark. Scary but not an all bad idea. Damn hard to do though. This will take some pondering and some help from Stool friends. Still, many think we are up to July. If so, there will be many long opportunities. Looking forward to Pile’s take on this strategy.

What about bonds? If stocks run up for 4 months, is shorting something like TLT a good option?
What about the lenders? CFC has never been higher and if there is a mad rush to jump on low rates, it could get another puff of crack before it cracks. Then there’s one of Marks favorites, NCEN. 33 again? Or will it break to new all time highs over 35?

Then for a good time, there are the chipy quippers and the cool cult crap.
Yes, TA, the Fed, the PPT, BOJ, Maria’s secretions and all the rest do matter but in this global fiat experiment, energy is the universal commodity. And oil is the most tradable form of energy.
On the PBS BS last night it was made very clear that a $10 change in the cost of a barrel of oil equated to a 100 billion dollar change in the US economy. If oil drops to $20 a barrel as a result of our current crusade in Iraq, the US gets a 100 billion buck boost. That could almost pay the war bill.

This time its different. Sorry just had to say that for fun. This new precision destruction has the potential of putting stool up the backs of some powerful people. What fun is it building up an army and cool palaces, only to have them taken away by remote control cruse toys? But all military breakthroughs have been haled as the end to war and all have been countered. Always interested in these cool war toys we pay for with our taxes, so I looked in on what was new with cruise missiles. Fun stuff until you read the warnings of how easy these things are to build with off the shelf parts. That makes an 80B+ Star Wars defense plan useless against a $40,000 cruise toy.

#30 brian4

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:21 PM

Fokker, Lou, Bare and Rayok-have it right-Mark how you can call a Bull Market after an 8 day binge that brought the averages up to their 200 day m/a is plain wrong. Yes-I'm still short and if we break 920 I'll go long for a bit this is far, far from over personally I doubt we break 920-we will see. This war and this rally is Hollywood manufactured all fantasy no reality. Simply put the world is broke and fighting a war using a credit card whose limit keeps being raised. The volumes of the rally say it all Joe Sixpack ain't buying cause he can't he is tapped. Enjoy Haiwaii while you can. Trade Safe!





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