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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:18 AM

Aloha Riverboaters:

My 4 shorts were stopped out today for a dollar loss. Too bad. So much for my brief attempt to outrun the freight train in my beat up Chevy Impala at the railroad crossing.

I underestimated the sex drive of the 21-year old MTV Spring Break girls. Eight days in a row? Seems impossible. But it happened.

In fact, it doesn't appear that she will even let you out of bed for a drink of water or to take a leak!!

I'm not waiting around for the 200-day to get busted. We will stop short of that line, and go sideways for awhile to build up power to break that 3 year trend line.

I suspect that the Mark To Market theme for the next several months will need to be changed. From now on, we will have a contest to see who can lay the girl with the worst self esteem, and ride her the longest.

Micron (MU) anybody? I'll probably jump on her next week.

How about EXPE?? Talk about high maintenance! Wow, what a run. Anybody here got the nerve to ride her up to $150?

Where is PileDriver? He needs to get a list of the worst junk stocks possible for us to do from the backdoor. Imagine the gains possible when those Vegas Strip Girls decide to start moving...

Anyway, by the end of next week, a retracement should be completed. By then we should all jump on the worst of the worst for some joy rides.

Anyone read Noland tonight?

He says the Commodity Robots and the Derivative Robots are now running all financial markets, including the currency markets. Now is not the time to fight the Robots when the MoGauge is in hockey stick mode and Al Green is ready to levitate at will.

Way too much cash floating around.

Keep an eye on GE. Look at the monstrous volume coming into that one. This rally is for real. Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker was correct. We are now in a cyclical bull market, driven entirely by market internals, now controlled by a massive unwinding of bear market hedge programs, which could care less about fundamentals.

I haven't had time to look at many charts lately. But we need to look for a list of screaming psychos real fast.

Bears need not fret. Lots of money to be made on the upside. Lets go find some dongs.

Get ready for the ride of your life......

The longest running MTV Spring Break is breaking world records...

My Hawaii vacation bull market run has broken all records, and there is another week to go...
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 BAREister

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 02:39 AM

ohhhpuhhhhhhlllllLEASE!!!!*@#*!@#%$&!*!!!!!

gimmea(spring?)BREAKwouldya?

a cyclical bull market???

what BULL!!!!!



a ferocious bear mkt rally, to be shurrre, butt (_)_) a bull market?????

The BARE duzn't TINK sew! NOSIREEEeee, SNOT by a 'long' shot!

our columnist has been sitting on the beach downwind of someone partaking heavily of Maui WOWie!!!, it seems.

The BARE hASS never seen such running and ducking FUR cover when under heavy FUR.

CRAPitulation right and left.

All hedge funds, now, izzit?

oh yeah?

all these theories, all these rationales, all these excuses.

Well, they MIGHT be right. But they're as much post hoc rationalizations ass anything else and to make things even more tenuous they're extrapolating linearly in their ASSessment of what is coming (see the start of this thread FUR a -pardon the parlance: "prime" example of THAT) in a market that hASS been anything BUTT.

The BARE hASS his dander up. He'll post in LOB over the weekend at least SOME of the reasons why he thinks talk of this ilk by Wyndy and Bhudda and UDDERS is likely, in his opinion, incorrect, SNOTwithstanding the rally in motion.

Price, of course, is the final arbiter. Again, these fellows might be right. BUTT:

HRFF thought bears here made of sterner stuff.

He will conclude THIS post with the following thought: We are at WAR, gentlemen. And there is NOTHING on this earth more capricious or uncertain than WAR. We are JUST starting this war.

We have been VERY lucky.... so FUR. Luck, always an inconstant and fickle companion, is particularly capricious in time of war.

It's been that way since time immemorial:

'The event corresponds less to expectations in war than in any other case whatever.' -- Livy

"War Involves in its progress such a train of unforeseen and unsupposed circumstances that no human wisdom can calculate the end." -- Thomas Paine



“The statesman who yields to war fever must realize that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.” -- Winston Churchill


So what have these MORONS on Wall Street been doing FUR the pASSt eight DAZE (and The BARE DUZ mean DAZE gentle reader!!!)???

well, this country lad will quote a 'hackneyed' phrase:

"Counting their chickens beFUR they HATCH!!!"


Cyclical bull market, my KEISTER!!! sayeth The BARE.

Yogi, where R ya?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#3 wndysrf

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 03:17 AM

Aloha BARE:

You must come to Hawaii to sample all the Asian Exotica, partake in some Maui Wowie, and get the big picture as Buddhadropping described.

The most successful market intervention and PigMen setup of all time just happened. The public has been piling into bonds the entire time, right at the top. Gradually, as the bond market topples, they will move their money out of bonds back into stocks.

The COT report shows that the commercials have nearly covered all shorts.

Bear market is over as long as the March lows hold. Cyclical bull now in control, until proven otherwise.

Look at a long term chart of MMM. Bull or bear action???

You must find some young, lustful, anxious girls coming out of the rehab clinic. They will be emerging in droves, ready for some manly action. Better get to the front of the line, so you can pick off the best.....

Aloha.....
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#4 Goldmember

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 04:54 AM

No point in standing in front of THIS global freight train

Enjoy the vacation Windy! Impecable timing for a sun, surf and muff dive. :lol:
Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#5 Drano

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 10:20 AM

Just posting to bring this thread up to the top.
Of course I'm caustic!

#6 soup

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 10:34 AM

Qustion: in the history of this board has it ever been this bullish? Hey maybe this is the new age, I can not say. But guys comparing this to 1982 is devoid of all facts and obkectivity. THis is not 1982. If wwe break above and close over 900 I will not stand in the way, but to mindlessl go long after 8 up days in the wake ofg the worst fundamentals this country has ever seen, well perhaps folly.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#7 soup

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 10:37 AM

yes, yes, yes, mkts can stay irrational a lot longer than one can stay solvent. ANd yes, perhaps short is not the place to be, but who wants to be long at these nose bleed levels? Maybe flat, certainly, but this is a very dangerous spot for longs.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#8 DrStool

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:21 AM

In the cases of the 3 previous bubble unwindings of the last century, all launched gigantic rallies 36 to 39 months from the peak. Only the 1932 launch of the Dow was the first leg of a bull market, and that upleg was subsequently followed by an 80% retrace. The Nikkei and gold both had gigantic rallies, but remained in bear markets.

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#9 speculator

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:31 AM

Qustion: in the history of this board has it ever been this bullish? Hey maybe this is the new age, I can not say. But guys comparing this to 1982 is devoid of all facts and obkectivity. THis is not 1982. If wwe break above and close over 900 I will not stand in the way, but to mindlessl go long after 8 up days in the wake ofg the worst fundamentals this country has ever seen, well perhaps folly.

Funnymentals rule in the longer term but - look at the massive short position in the markets, look at the % of the market that is owned by institutions and funds that NEED this market to go up and have size, look at the spectacular decline in the past 3 years where those with deep pockets have made a fortune on short and hold, look at the massive liquidity bubble that has much further to run.

There is no reason why we cant have a bull run to unwind the massive short position and suck in the huge amounts of cash thats in the bond market. Makes sense to me anyway.

But I'll follow the charts and let the market tell me what to do.

#10 rayok

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:34 AM

This may be a cyclical bull market but for how long? One month? Two months? More? Collapsing bubbles are about unwinding leverage. No leverage has been unwound due to the constant lowering of interest rates. If anything, the average investor is acquiring more leverage through home refinancings and is speculating on catching the bear market bottom. The average investor does not even realize they are a leveraged investor. Before this bear market is over they will. A leveraged investor is a weak investor. When the stool hits the fan, which one of these leveraged investors will choose stocks over their home. The leverage will be unwound, sooner or later. Ride the freight train but get ready to jump, there's a cliff ahead! :P

#11

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:35 AM

yes, yes, yes,  mkts can stay irrational a lot longer than one can stay solvent.   ANd yes, perhaps short is not the place to be,   but who wants to be long at these nose bleed levels?    Maybe flat, certainly, but this is a very dangerous spot for longs.

I now have both feet firmly planted on both sides of the fence. War and massive liquidity are adding fuel to the fire. Unintended consequences, surprise events and continued erosion of fundamentals could plunge the whole speculative mania into the abyss. Noland warns of credit market instability spiraling out of control fed ironically by the people intrusted to provide stability. Everyone is cornered and the only way out is to defend an indefensible position. The alcoholic paradox.

#12 speculator

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:46 AM

yes, yes, yes,  mkts can stay irrational a lot longer than one can stay solvent.   ANd yes, perhaps short is not the place to be,   but who wants to be long at these nose bleed levels?    Maybe flat, certainly, but this is a very dangerous spot for longs.

I now have both feet firmly planted on both sides of the fence. War and massive liquidity are adding fuel to the fire. Unintended consequences, surprise events and continued erosion of fundamentals could plunge the whole speculative mania into the abyss. Noland warns of credit market instability spiraling out of control fed ironically by the people intrusted to provide stability. Everyone is cornered and the only way out is to defend an indefensible position. The alcoholic paradox.

The recent agreement by the BOJ to work with the FED will insure that the FED can print dollars with abandon for much longer since we now have unlimited access to the hords of cash those hard-working japanese have stored away for us.

Dollar collapse has been "stick saved", for now.

#13 rayok

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 11:55 AM

The recent agreement by the BOJ to work with the FED will insure that the FED can print dollars with abandon for much longer since we now have unlimited access to the hords of cash those hard-working japanese have stored away for us.

Dollar collapse has been "stick saved", for now.

Yes, but how much longer will Japanese savers co-operate? :P

#14 longOnUranus

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 12:19 PM

I feel like a burnt out coke addict going to the Clinic for some 12 Step help, but here goes. A question not answered here yet: Why should 3 mega political events (Y2K, 9/11 and GulfWarII) act as pivot points for what is undeniably the START of a large, decades-long economic downturn cycle? There was no such political parallel in the 20's & 30's. Did FDR's New Deal revive the economy? Duhhhh.....

Yet many "bears" here, including our most erudite minds, think that these events will have something to do with the unwinding of the bear.

Due to rampant corporate spending and record "profits', did the stimulus of Y2K cause the bear (knowing that they caused the blow-off top of the bull) ? If so, the demand wash out would have been quickly recoverable if you use the traditional inventory stores argument.

The downtrend was well in place before 9/11 and the recent GWII. And will continue, with perhaps a brief interruption for this bear rally.

Sentiment? Every US War since WWII has left an American public increasingly impatient to deal with the economic consequences of it. Look at GWI. Great success, a year later PapaBush is flat on the pavement. LBJ had to back out of the race due to Nam. The public demanded a negotiated settlement in Korea. Leadership will always demand "more time", but the public increasingly refuses to give it. No "Marshall Plan" has been even remotely successful since WWII. Example: how did VietNam get back on it's feet? With US Aid?????

Point: I would give the national euphoria over this another 48 HOURS. Reality will return strikingly quick. The media is already gloating over the "oil field dividend". The Arab World will be furious, as am I, over the lack of humility regarding OUR use of THEIR resources. American's, being mostly just people, will sicken of this opportunism VERY quickly.

The problem I have with going long, the problem I have had since 2000, is that I am trading against the Trend. I have had short positions since 2K and have made a tidy six-figures, on NOT a large initial investment. I'm in and out of options, but I'm always, on net, in line with the trend. Scalped a long recently and sold way too quick. My timing is much better with bottoms than with tops. Which is why I re-enter shorts too soon.

But to go long? If someone at this Weekend Clinic can convince me from a TA standpoint that this cyclical bear (in a still secular bear) is over, I'll close my positions, buy some more gold/silver and hit the beach. No way will I go long. But if you are going to use political and semtiment arguments based on the orgasmic activity of the past 8 trading days...gimme a break.

re: MTV --- my daughter and her three 17 yo babe friends were in THE Pool for 2 hours on MTV Spring Break in South Beach last week; aired yesterday. Hung out wit da starz. The phone has been ringing non-stop, everybody in the school saw it. I would have preferred she model underwear for Victoria Secret than to have been on that show...tough being a dad)

#15 GregFokker

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Posted 22 March 2003 - 12:47 PM

Just logged back in after clicking the bloody screen off at 3:30PM yestiddy. I suggest that everyone take a deep breath and review the sentiment and commitments of traders at www.vtoreport.com. It appears to me that nothing has changed, beyond some small traders getting blown out.

I'm terrified at the sight of the COMPX closing 6 points above its 200 day ema, but the same thing occurred at the December 2002 highs, and persisted on 2 daily candles before the pig stopped flying.

I'm still net short the QQQ and net long the CRB and HUI, to my chagrin, but the world does not appear to me to have changed.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty






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