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#16 lb

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:57 PM

Boy, you guys can be so negative.

ORCL beet by a penny and MCHP is no doubt an isolated incident. Company specific.

The market rallied because we are going to have a quick and easy war.

After that the stool knocks the fan off the table and into the hot tub.

#17 phatbubble

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:57 PM

i don't think they'll let the war start without a couple more bugles stuck up everyone's asses, but the world economy is going down the drain. interventionist saves have become commonplace, to the point where, *yawn*, it's just Them doing that Jam Thing again. it's easy to forget that they're working desperately to stave off a global financial meltdown. this thing's cooked. it's just taking a while for word to get around.

anybody got any news on mousey?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#18 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:02 PM

Ooops. I'm off topic already. Dang! I'm responding to Phat's last comment on the FED 'no comment' in yesterday's M2M thread. Ignore if you wish....

...coupled with ongoing growth in productivity...


Can anyone explain what this ongoing growth in productivity is? Where I went to school, I learned there is a clear and important distinction between efficiency and productivity.

Efficiency implies the same output in the numerator but fewer inputs in the denominator. Conversely, productivity means greater output in the numerator with constant inputs in the denominator.

Why get all bogged down in what seems to be a semantic argument? Because simple efficiency will not fuel the types of expansion and long-term benefits that Al G. is pinning his hopes on. I think he's confusing true productivity with efficiency and has made a terrible mistake in focusing on this one poorly defined and probably mis-termed 'metric'.

Example: If you have a machine that can kick out 1000 cans per hour but is only running at 750 cans/hr you are missing some opportunity to make more cans with a given capital investment. However, luck of all worlds, you find a better mechanic who tunes your machine to produce it's actual theoretical capacity of 1000 cans/hr. However, while this increase in efficiency is a good thing, it does not change the fundamental underlying equation of your situation, it just optimized it. You invested capital with an expectation of return and you are now getting that return.

Your competitor, however, has found a way, using the same machine purchased at the same cost, to produce 10% productivity gains year in and year out. Next year he is producing 1100 cans/hr from the same base capital investment. The year after that 1210 cans/hr. Your competitor has now changed the fundamental economics of the equation and will soon hand you your a**.

Productivity gains are sustainable and cumulative, efficiency gains often are not (try running your car at it's theoretical maximum and see how long it lasts...). I thoroughly applaud any and all efforts to increase efficiency as it's good business practice, but it's not the same as productivity.

I have seen nothing in the recent economic reports to suggest that we are getting more out of our capital investments than in times past. Our 'productivity' miracle is a complete sham. Nothing but simple, unsustainable efficiency gains.

Loooong way of saying I think Al G's fixation on Productivity is a stoolpid as his inability to spot a bubble. Is this guy trying to wreck the economy?

The productivity mirage can be summed up in two words.

Hedonic deflation.

#19 MrHanky

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:02 PM

The only short fund I have traded this year is drcvx.closed today @4.57 and was as high as 5.03 last week.in mid january it traded as low as 4.37 and I'm wondering if I will get the opporunity to buy near those levels in the near future.

That's about another 4-5% move from here or so.I'm being very careful not to go short too early this time.

Nothing


#20 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:17 PM

Just wondering what the pro's here like TE and brian4 think about SPY. Very small range today. Do you have targets for pullback to get long, or blow off top to get short? All is so driven by news from the war front, and could be extreme in either direction. 1. Iraq troops seen waving white flags (5% rally), 2. Someone sprayed some chemical weapon (5% down). Seems like even a CNN rumor could really whip things around wildly.

#21 rog

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:17 PM

ORCL is a disaster. Company benefited from a 400 bp drop in the effective tax rate to make their numbers. Additionally they offered results adjusted for currency. Absent this adjustment sales were down not up: database down 11% and apps down 8%. Funny they never adjusted sales down to account for a strong dollar.

The cherry on top was the warning and guide down. Preannouncements have started, in the short-term the market may ignore the first few. By the end of March however the weight of preannouncements and the end of the nintendo portion of the war will weigh on the market.

#22 The End

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:20 PM

I spoke with Mousey at around 3pm est. He is doing ok. The doctor has him on blood thinners.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#23 phatbubble

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:22 PM

it's easy to forget that they're working desperately to stave off a global financial meltdown. this thing's cooked. it's just taking a while for word to get around.

....which is, admittedly, completely useless as a market forecast. eifuku! ok, here:

if we don't break SPX 920 in the next two weeks it's even money that we don't do it for the next fifteen years.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#24 DrStool

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:25 PM

Stop, Look, Mull and Log In 3/18/03

Stoolies today raised some questions about Doc's tentative projected targets for the 10-12 month cycle. Doc answers. Doc is like the Prime Minister of Stool, you see. When the Stoolie MP's yell at him during Prime Ministers Questions in Stool Parliament, Heyyyyy Heayyyy, Hoooo heeee heeee hyah hayh, Doc listens.

Doc stops, looks, and mulls and renders his judgment. He describes the dangers of the moment, examines the Feed and monetary data, chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this moonshot is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, the Long Bong Hit, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Drop by your stock proctologist's office, and get the inside picture, all in the Anals tonight.

Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet!

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#25 FeedFool

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:26 PM

(Sphinxter @ Mar 18 2003, 05:16 PM)
Ooops. I'm off topic already. Dang! I'm responding to Phat's last comment on the FED 'no comment' in yesterday's M2M thread. Ignore if you wish....

...coupled with ongoing growth in productivity...




Is this guy trying to wreck the economy?




Yes and he is doing a good job doing it




:(

#26 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:29 PM

ORCL is a disaster. Company benefited from a 400 bp drop in the effective tax rate to make their numbers. Additionally they offered results adjusted for currency. Absent this adjustment sales were down not up: database down 11% and apps down 8%. Funny they never adjusted sales down to account for a strong dollar.

The cherry on top was the warning and guide down. Preannouncements have started, in the short-term the market may ignore the first few. By the end of March however the weight of preannouncements and the end of the nintendo portion of the war will weigh on the market.

Thanks for the summary. Much appreciated.

#27 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:31 PM

In Korea, the Credit Bubble appears to have popped.

SK scandal pops credit card bubble

#28 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:36 PM

You people are so jaded. Don't you know that people are bearish at market bottoms? You'll be in a world of hurt when this market zooms back up to 5,000 and you are still shorting the QQQs!






(That's sarcasm, folks!)

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:37 PM

Al calls the CEO of Oracle today to ask how his numbers will look tonight when released. CEO tells Al the unvarnished truth. Al soils himself, and spills the beans to those assembled for the FOMC meeting.

"Now how are we going to release this BS statement on the present state of the economy - that we've been concocting all morning, when this Oracle bomb is going to hit the tape tonight?"

"Now we definitely can't lower the discount rate even if we wanted to, because it will set off a panic. And we can't release any statement on the economy, because with this Oracle news, we'd look like idiot/cheerleaders and nobody will believe us."

So Al remembers his Momma's advice..."if you don't have anything good to say, don't say anything at all."

"No Rate Cut...No Comment!"

Al's saving his last remaining bullets for a stick save on the "Sell-The-News War Collapse"

The boys will smell the panic in Al when he jumps-in with a half point cut in the midst of mayhem...and it's a long way down the falls.

Plunger

#30 phatbubble

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 07:42 PM

Doc .... chronicles the market cycles, and tells us where this moonshot is heading

jeez, i'll miss the 'shipwreck'. had a great image of this old battered galleon with torn sails, some cannonball holes, listing slightly, sort of drifting hither and yon amongst various lethal crags of rock. thoroughly doomed.

'moonshot' sounds all satellite-guided and precise and seamless. like it can't not go to the moon. how about 'potato launch'?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.





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