Top Or Bottom?
122 replies to this topic
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:07 PM
The topic title says it all. Here we be. Take it away, Stoolies.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:14 PM
Definitely much closer to the top than the bottom -- but . . . the final topping could be painful.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:15 PM
I'm placing bets on some miners, with some tight stops. I've got a feeling they're ready to rip, but could just have my ass handed to me as well. Some of you sports fans might want to check out the charts on FCX and SLGLF.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:16 PM
Ooops. I'm off topic already. Dang! I'm responding to Phat's last comment on the FED 'no comment' in yesterday's M2M thread. Ignore if you wish....
Can anyone explain what this ongoing growth in productivity is? Where I went to school, I learned there is a clear and important distinction between efficiency and productivity.
Efficiency implies the same output in the numerator but fewer inputs in the denominator. Conversely, productivity means greater output in the numerator with constant inputs in the denominator.
Why get all bogged down in what seems to be a semantic argument? Because simple efficiency will not fuel the types of expansion and long-term benefits that Al G. is pinning his hopes on. I think he's confusing true productivity with efficiency and has made a terrible mistake in focusing on this one poorly defined and probably mis-termed 'metric'.
Example: If you have a machine that can kick out 1000 cans per hour but is only running at 750 cans/hr you are missing some opportunity to make more cans with a given capital investment. However, luck of all worlds, you find a better mechanic who tunes your machine to produce it's actual theoretical capacity of 1000 cans/hr. However, while this increase in efficiency is a good thing, it does not change the fundamental underlying equation of your situation, it just optimized it. You invested capital with an expectation of return and you are now getting that return.
Your competitor, however, has found a way, using the same machine purchased at the same cost, to produce 10% productivity gains year in and year out. Next year he is producing 1100 cans/hr from the same base capital investment. The year after that 1210 cans/hr. Your competitor has now changed the fundamental economics of the equation and will soon hand you your a**.
Productivity gains are sustainable and cumulative, efficiency gains often are not (try running your car at it's theoretical maximum and see how long it lasts...). I thoroughly applaud any and all efforts to increase efficiency as it's good business practice, but it's not the same as productivity.
I have seen nothing in the recent economic reports to suggest that we are getting more out of our capital investments than in times past. Our 'productivity' miracle is a complete sham. Nothing but simple, unsustainable efficiency gains.
Loooong way of saying I think Al G's fixation on Productivity is a stoolpid as his inability to spot a bubble. Is this guy trying to wreck the economy?
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:17 PM
Up is Down. Bad is Good. War is Peace. Slavery is Freedom.
Ignorance is Bliss.
Applied Materials advances after cuts
By Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com
Last Update: 4:09 PM ET March 18, 2003
SANTA CLARA, Calif. (CBS.MW) - Applied Materials shares rose on Tuesday after the world's largest manufacturer of chipmaking equipment said it will eliminate 14 percent of its workforce as it continues to cope with lackluster demand.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:24 PM
ORCL and MCHP getting taken out behind the woodshed and raped furiously.....ORCL printing 11.69 and MCHP printing 20.45
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:26 PM
While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing. Not enough debt being created to employ human beings However, the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums BS excuse and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties Join the army the pay is good. The Committee believes that as those uncertainties lift replaced with new ones, as most anal cysts expect snake oil salesmen, the accommodative stance of monetary policy Lending to dead people , coupled with ongoing growth in productivity More lay offs, will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time In a couple decades.
In light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run we're lost in space and their apparent effects on economic decisionmaking rape and pillage, the Committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. We are useless Rather, the Committee decided to refrain from making that determination until some of those uncertainties abate replaced with new ones to use as excuses. In the current circumstances, heightened surveillance is particularly informative If you see us running for the lifeboats it is not a drill.
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:28 PM
America is simply going to downsize its way to profitability....it's brilliant! If AMAT's stock is up having now fired a quarter of their entire workforce, just imagine how high their stock will trade once they've fired everybody! It's the miracle of the Internet. None of the old rules apply any more. New Math.
Keep an eye on the airlines for the big reversal (as they've just had the big squeeze with no good news in sight). CAL just announced it's cutting back on some international routes due to uncertainties surrounding the war. I'll bet you anything it has more to do with keeping potentially SARS infected Asian passengers out of their system.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:32 PM
Well, just look at how much more productive AMAT is now. That deserves a nice reward from the street, wouldn't you say?
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:37 PM
Individual issue will get hit but Bush and his gangs are fighting war and have intention of letting indexes go down in front of the world. All u have to do is think like a crooks. Same way they will take Iraq oil away from them.
I have a competition date for the pattern. I will leave that out for now. Let see how it plays out.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:38 PM
Apparently GM and Ford are going to be more productive producing less vehicles too.
Once the shooting starts, we're all just going to sit in front of the TV and be exceptionally productive. Long Beer, Long Fear, Long Dominoes Home Delivery.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:40 PM
Now back to full straddle. I don't think I will stay that way too long.
Good luck fellow stoolies.
I agree with Docs cmaps.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:49 PM
1 in 7 getting laid off. bet that gives the other 6 outta 7 that warm fuzzy feeling. seriously, the rising unemployment is gonna cause the remaining employed folks to cut back on spending - and thats before considering the need to reduce household debt.
the FED/govts cant have it both ways (every way) at the same time. it cant constantly print money, have almost every entity running large deficeits, fight wars, rebuild countries after said wars, support the world, police the world, and on and on; but at the same time keep inflation low, stave off deflation, keep the economy humming, support uncle buck and avert a debt crisis. it cant happen, its not possible. so today they blamed war and terrorism and just admitted the truth - they dont know what the hell happens from here - and the market rallys out?
this all started out as a soft landing and is now a soft spot in the middle of a credit and real estate bubble. and what does a bubble look like? it makes you look like a fool when other continue to pyramid beyond any reason. this started out as a big pimple and is now morphing into a huge boil.
EDIT: hypertiger - ROFLMAO!!!! thats for the translation!
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 18 March 2003 - 06:56 PM
On a side note, the company has often mentioned that its
board of directors reviews its pension assumptions
annually, usually in February. Merrill would not be surprised
to see the company lower its anticipated rate of return on
its pension assets from its current 10.1% level to the 9%
area, causing additional expenses in FY2004.
was thinking FEDEX would get a pop from all the shipping to IRAQ - until i read the above. additional expenses???? WTF?????
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
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