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Stage 2 Blastoff


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#106 buttugly

buttugly

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 10:11 AM

I hear DJIA has to go to 9000 before we see 6000! :blink:
Too many shorts!

Look at these unfolding short squeezes:

Short Interest (Feb) > 5%
19.8% AMZN $12.26 to $26.55
15.8% QLGC $19.66 to $39.99
13.6% DISH $13.41 to $29.72
10.5% JNPR $4.15 to $9.09
9.3% EBAY $49.25 to $87.00
8.5% SYMC $27.21 to $46.99
8.3% MERQ $15.15 to $34.99
7.3% NTAP $5.18 to $11.45
5.3% NET $8.14 to $17.85

Short Interest (Feb) < 5%
4.6% BEAS $4.59 to $11.62
3.3% ALTR $8.32 to $14.82
3.0% GENZ $15.64 to $35.35
2.8% CMCSA $17.05 to $29.38

#107

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 10:17 AM

Checking in I note that many technicians and Ewavers are flabbergasted. Imo, TA will never effectively chart the lion's share of huge moves like this. This is a forensic move based in the recent memory of the Afghan bombing run and concurrent stock buying fever. I said a week ago that this war would be bought, not sold and I got alot of grief for it which is fine and its what this board is all about; dialogue. Clearly the Matrix is staking its future on a quick and easy and overwhelming victory in Iraq conjoined with a 'return to the bull market' in stocks on the 3rd anniversary of the bull top. This is why Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker is in. No other reason. Its geo-political positioning for the next great blast of greed in the cycle. No way this government goes to War without everyone on the same page and without a massively sympathetic stock rally fueled by Y2K type liquidity embalmings. Essentially the Corpse is being shocked into new life. I said last Tuesday that PigMen on the floor would know before many in the Pentagon what the go date for the War invasion would be. They have demonstrated this reality since Thursday. Clearly this information was leaked and they have been manuevering at the Trough ever since. The 'summit' in the Azores was all a silly ruse. It was less than 2 hours long and was fronted in the media as a last ditch effort to promote diplomacy and peace. Nothing could be further from the truth and Wall Street knew it, they knew to game the event since it was really a war conference on an aircraft carrier. It was the opposite of how it was portrayed. Wall Struck loves setups like this, they were insider trading that thing 2 days in advance of it. Again, my timetable has an attack coming this weekend or shortly thereafter. The airforce much prefers a dark sky so the end of the month is better but I think they will jump the gun and go into a quarter moon since they are now so deeply arrogant and self assured. Imo none of this is technically tradeable. It is in fact quite simply the single biggest geopolitical event since Nazi Germany attacked Poland in September of 1939. It is a watershed Sigma event that challenges the whole notion of multilateralism, shames the U.N. and marks a profound change in the world dynamic. best,buddha

It's a beautiful thing when someone can write like that. Now if we could just get you to break it up into neat little paragraphs. :lol:

Hear, hear!

Please, folks. Some of us are not native English speakers. When I see a huge paragraph like that, I start losing the thought and slipping towards the next message after the first few sentences.

Pretty please, buddha?

Regards,
Vesselin

#108

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 10:47 AM

OT

titus, .jpg files are already compressed. won't compress more.

#109

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 10:49 AM

Vesselin just freaked me out completely with a chart posted below.  I'm going to watch some TV and chill for awhile.  If the top downsloping trendline connecting the highs doesn't hold this puppy back, it looks like a bull flag breakout.

Here is a better illustration of it with the bull flag breakout outlined:

Posted Image

Of course, neither I nor, I believe he, expects the implied bull flag target of 1935 to be reached.


Correct, I don't. I don't have any reasonably reliable upside targets yet. Let's see first how the price reacts around that gap.

Regards,
Vesselin

#110

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 10:52 AM

Interesting crb trend change......any theories?

The impact of oil's (heavily weighted in the index) and gold's war-related drop muddles the picture somewhat. But the $CRB has been a Short since the second week of February - even before it made the final high. It is now accelerating to the downside. I doubt that the 200-dma would stop it...

Remove the war-related oil and gold spike and you'll realize that the economy is headed towards deflation.

Regards,
Vesselin

#111

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 11:00 AM

But remember as quoted last week - my St Barts pal (who I put on a par with Vesselin) said

"Up BIG then down HUGE".

Hey, thanks. :rolleyes: I agree with that, BTW. Once this bear market rally ends, the decline will be something to behold.

$CPC 21-day is not far off a short signal.


We can't know that. Remember - the levels don't matter there; it's the pattern that matters. The 21-dma has to make a local bottom and turn up, in order to give a Short signal:

Posted Image

Regards,
Vesselin

#112 phrith

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 12:08 PM

I'm not shorting yet, but my inclination is that this could well be a sell the war type of rally. SOX looks to have strong resistance at 325. Was it Vesselin who said that this could be a scenario where the market basically treads water at these highs for the next month or so before it rolls over.

#113 phatbubble

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 05:36 PM

tossing a post in here for timestamp's sake, in case tonight's thread dunt get opened.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#114 phatbubble

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Posted 18 March 2003 - 05:43 PM

"no comment" explained:

While incoming economic data since the January meeting have been mixed, recent labor market indicators have proven disappointing. However, the hesitancy of the economic expansion appears to owe importantly to oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical uncertainties. The Committee believes that as those uncertainties lift, as most anal cysts expect, the accommodative stance of monetary policy, coupled with ongoing growth in productivity, will provide support to economic activity sufficient to engender an improving economic climate over time.

In light of the unusually large uncertainties clouding the geopolitical situation in the short run and their apparent effects on economic decisionmaking, the Committee does not believe it can usefully characterize the current balance of risks with respect to the prospects for its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. Rather, the Committee decided to refrain from making that determination until some of those uncertainties abate. In the current circumstances, heightened surveillance is particularly informative.


you can kinda guess who wrote this, huh. maybe 'explained' is the wrong word....

(from today's fed statement)
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.





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