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Stage 2 Blastoff


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#1 DrStool

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:30 PM

I am sure Mark is having more fun in Hawaii than most of us bears had here today.

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#2 Drano

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:35 PM

Doc, perhaps you could start another pooper-scooper for a server upgrade fund for those of us who use IDS.
Of course I'm caustic!

#3 Stoolander

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:36 PM

I wouldn't normally waste valuable bandwidth by posting my half-baked ideas here but since Mark's away ...

Despite the drivel I hear from Crapvision, what my charts show is that in the last 12 months every time we've had a 90% up day, we top in 0 - 2 days.

This includes Jan 2 2003, July 29 2002, July 5 2002. We didn't quite get a 90% up day off the Oct 2002 low.

It was just last week Piss-on-me was crying about the 90% down day (March 10) we had ... oh how soon they forget. Normally a bottom comes after a number of 90% days within a few weeks. Nice try bulls, we didn't get it.

#4 The End

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:46 PM

Still Straddled. Took one call off at the close. STRONG rally but breadth wasn't up to snuff. The vix bothers me but, the trin negates it. Ahh, option's expo. Gotta love the criminals.

By the way max pain is 850 on the spx. Been there done that.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#5 Stoolander

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:47 PM

Here are the mcclellan readings off the July and Oct lows:

July 23, 2002 -310
October 9, 2002 -248

We only got as low as -92 at the March 12, 2003 "low" (time will confirm if it is indeed a low). Not much of a pull on the elastic it looks to me.

#6 anjing bau

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:52 PM

Posted Image

The financials are still below the 50 dma

#7 The End

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:54 PM

Here are the mcclellan readings off the July and Oct lows:

July 23, 2002  -310
October 9, 2002  -248

We only got as low as -92 at the March 12, 2003 "low" (time will confirm if it is indeed a low).  Not much of a pull on the elastic it looks to me.

I'm still on the lookout for a buy spike but, todays move will no doubt bring the oscillator to 60+, IMHO.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#8 anjing bau

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:55 PM

show me 725.......

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#9 Stoolander

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 05:57 PM

Here are the mcclellan readings off the July and Oct lows:

July 23, 2002 †-310
October 9, 2002 †-248

We only got as low as -92 at the March 12, 2003 "low" (time will confirm if it is indeed a low). †Not much of a pull on the elastic it looks to me.

I'm still on the lookout for a buy spike but, todays move will no doubt bring the oscillator to 60+, IMHO.

I got mcclellan +99 as of todays close.

#10 FeedFool

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:01 PM

Any drop will be brought as top takes time to build. Only thing in bearís favors is ultra low TRIN. One needs to wait for volume (Fuel) to dry up before any one considers long-term shorts. The Fun manager Jamboree is not far away so best time for shorting will be in April.

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#11 The End

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:01 PM

+99 is even better then i thought. Good. Closer to a retracement.

Perhaps?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#12 sweefraapp

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:04 PM

On the few OEX puts that I checked - quite a few traded toward the end of day - much more than usual.

#13 Pee Brain

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:09 PM

slight indulgence requested.

paid off the house today - feels great - FREEDOM! i mentioned it to some buddies who called on the phone - do you guys realize how stupid one has to be to actually pay off a mortgage? jeez, what a dope i am! the debt bomb mentality is alive and flourishing, as is consumerism. one guy told me to do something for myself like buy a new car - thats the last thing ill ever do - i told him i was gonna do something for myself soon and take the rest of my life off from work! the same folks who think paying off debt is stupid, are the same folks that have been long this market since march 2000. why should i start listening to them now? :lol:

thanks for the indulgence. :P
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.

#14 crooked_analyst

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:10 PM

DOW JONES NEWSWIRE:

FED WATCH: Economists See FOMC Warning Of Economic Risks

By Michael S. Derby of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The meeting Tuesday of Federal Reserve policy makers will almost certainly see the central bank hold interest rates steady and warn that risks to the economic outlook have clearly worsened.

But for many in financial markets, the Federal Open Market Committee gathering, which usually commands a central focus for investors, will be overshadowed by the near certainty of war in Iraq in the next several days.

Indeed, it is the war and what the anticipation of it has done to the economy that's been the central bank's prime bogeyman for many months now. Fed officials have repeatedly blamed the current sluggishness in the economy on uncertainty related to a potential war to disarm Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

They've argued the impending conflict is causing business to hold back on investment and trim payrolls, while making consumers reluctant to spend. Echoes of that uncertainty have been seen in a manufacturing sector where output is barely growing, a labor market that lost 308,000 jobs in February, and in falling retail sales.

Normally, such an ugly confluence of events would be a green light to cut interest rates, even as those rates are already grazing historical lows and are coming dangerously close to hitting a bottom. But the source of the weakness in the economy this time around is making Fed officials confident they can wait, in the belief that things will get better once the war passes.

As a result, the majority of primary dealers - banks that deal directly with the Fed - expect the central bank to stick to its current 1.25% fed funds target rate, a level many think will hold for a number of months. Most also believe the Fed will at least give a nod to the soggy economic environment by warning risks to growth are clearly growing.

The meeting "is about the playing out of the scenarios (Alan) Greenspan has talked about" for some time, said Charles Lieberman, an economist at Advisors Financial Center in Suffern, New York. "It's going to be impossible to discern what other things are holding back the economy" with the war looming, so the central bank will for now simply stand aside, he said.

Rising Risks

Most observers believe the Fed will note its concerns by flagging the adverse impact of rising energy prices and the Iraq war.

As such, many Fed watchers expect to see the FOMC break out the same "oil price premiums and other aspects of geopolitical risks have reportedly fostered continued restraint on spending and hiring by businesses" wording used in the statement accompanying the meeting that ended on Jan. 29.

Even though there's a strong consensus for the central bank holding steady, some heavy hitters think the Fed will cut rates again Tuesday, and they include J.P. Morgan Chase and Merrill Lynch. Wrightson ICAP economists had until last week predicted a 25 basis point easing, but took back that call Monday after the Fed refrained from sending any of its normal signals that action is possible.

Economists at Lehman Brothers don't think the Fed will ease Tuesday. But they do believe a half percentage point rate cut will come during April, outside of a regularly scheduled meeting. It will be followed by another quarter percentage point cut at the May meeting, to leave the funds rate at 0.50%, they argued.

While Lehman is alone in that call, many Fed watchers believe the central bank will guard against adverse economic and war developments by saying in Tuesday's statement that it will be "closely monitoring" events. That's Fed code that leaves open the possibility of an intermeeting rate cut.

Economists' views on the outcome of the Fed meeting differ somewhat from financial markets. While expectations have faded back in recent days, fed funds futures contracts see around a one-third chance of a rate cut Tuesday, and much stronger odds for easier policy in the months ahead.

"There's probably less conviction about the various choices the Fed has" among economists and the market, and that explains the somewhat fractured expectations, said Jim Glassman, economist with J.P. Morgan Chase in New York.

-Michael S. Derby, Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-4192; michael.derby@dowjones.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

03-17-03 1645ET- - 04 45 PM EST 03-17-03

#15 MrHanky

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Posted 17 March 2003 - 06:14 PM

up 365 points from the low today.I guess all the exitement last nite from the futures tanking was once again meaningless.this market makes everyone loose money in the end.long or short.


dow up 750 points in 4 days
nasgap up 140 in 4 days
s&p up 72 in 4 days

I'm just glad that they did not overreact and only quality low pe stocks were bought.....yeah right.

this will be the mother of all blowoffs,but no telling where it ends.

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