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#46 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 10:29 PM

Speaking of unemployment, I'm a bit confused as to how the US system works. I gather a worker pays insurance while employed against future unemployment.

1. After being pink slipped does the employee receive full previous salary, a % of previous salary or is it a calculation based on other parameters?

2. What happens if the employee leaves voluntarily?

3. Is there a basic living allowance payable after the insurance runs out?

Thanks if someone could answer those...

Aussiebear:

Most U.S. workers in the "dreaded private sector" have unemployment insurance paid by their employer. It's really a tax collected by the local state government. When someone is laid off, their employer certifies this is in fact the case (someone fired for showing up to work drunk and naked is not eligible to collect unemployment benefits; some other time, I'll tell you how I know this fact).

1. They receive a percentage of their salary up to a maximum amount which tops out not too far above the minimum wage.

2. Voluntary resignations are generally not eligible for unemployment compensation.

3. The only basic living wage payable after unemployment is called "family assistance" or "welfare". I believe it is even less than the unemployment compensation maximum, just enough to ensure one doesn't starve.

And the "best" part of receiving unemployment compensation: it is taxed as income by the government! :blink:

#47 SkiddMarket

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 10:36 PM

I'm piping up again. As I noted at 1:00 today, according to the SPX daily candlestick charts of the past 2 years, a long white candle is either followed by a shaved head red candle, a doji, or a long white candle. Since we opened at the yesterday's close and went up, we were either going to have a doji or a long white candle- no shaved head possible for a red candle. When we dropped BELOW the open, it was clear a doji was in our future, and I mentioned it well before the close.

OK now... The long white candle, doji combo has popped up quite frequently. The chart below shows all the APPROXIMATE appearances of this pattern in the past 2 years. I was very generous in interpretation to get as many examples as possible. Note that in all examples, there are really no candlesticks that rise above the close of the doji the previous day, and end up closing lower than the open. You either go UP or close unchanged. I'll be trying to take advantage of this little tidbit on Monday and will either make money or lose my butt. :blink:

Sorry about the resolution of the chart- 51K limitation. :(

Attached Images

  • 4chartsLowres.gif


#48 SkiddMarket

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 10:44 PM

Whoopsie- my hypothesis is open to misinterpretation. IF the SPX goes ABOVE the open on monday at any time, it is unlikely to close significantly below the open- it is likely to go right up or end in a doji. All down days following this pattern over the past 2 years did not go above the open at any time in the trading day. Please correct me if I am mistaken.

#49 Ned38

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 11:02 PM

Tim Ord's latest:

The Ord Oracle 3/13/3

Read, discuss, and possibly refute; but don't shoot the messenger.

Now I remember where I got the bright idea to buy BGO :angry:

#50 MrHanky

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 11:05 PM

I think we invade any day...B1 bombers hit radar sites.


http://story.news.ya...raq_military_61

Nothing


#51 Yaryman

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 11:15 PM

If only there was a name for rising prices during a recession.  :D

Just catching up. Stagflation?

OK, which one of those smiley faces do I use to indicate Sarcasm?

I was pretty sure everybody here knew the answer to the question, it was just my sarcastic
way of pointing out the obvious.

Obvious to one and all, except the Chairman of the Federal reserve board. (more sarcasm)

#52 longOnUranus

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 11:42 PM

Burnt to a crisp on The Keys. Never seen a town built around a bipolar drunk who could write brief sentences (Hemingway), but t'was quite cool. I dove a lot of the world until I got bent a few years back, much has changed (for the worse) marine-wise since the last time I saw the keys (early 70's)

Total crack market. Sold puts circa 803 mid week, built a straddle on XAU yesterday...had my computer off most of the week. Made more money this way and am a lot happier than if i would have chased the screen all week.

We have had so many false upside "breakouts" that TA types have bought into since October, I just don't buy it this tme. If it is a breakout, they (bulls) will have to prove it by traditional measures, not one day short-covering blasts from a record number of index puts and short positons...I have no interest in re-shorting until the War Premium is used up.

All this "uncertainty" and"inneptitude" over the Bush war plans is hogwash - a big headfake. There is so much misinformation circulating now, I wouldn't beleive anything that I can't see or hear first hand. I truly beleive this is all going according to plan.

Will short again when the reality of the true deepshit were in sinks home.

Pax.

#53 viperbear

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Posted 14 March 2003 - 11:44 PM

Incredibly Bearish Wave Count


We all know that that entire rally was among the silliest

Short Covering rallies in history.

If we open down Monday morning, (BIG IF)

We will have completed a failed 5th on two different levels.

Look at a 10 min chart.

We did a clean 3 waves up to 841. Then a perfect 3 waves down to 828.

then from 828 we did 3 waves up to 836 a fourth wave down to 830 and the 5th wave has so far failed to make it above 836 on the small scale and has so far fallen way short of 841.

If we open down on Monday, this wave structure will be studied in Universities for a hundred years.

If we break about 815 on Monday I predict the dow loses a 1000 points before friday.

Who do you suppose owns all those puts that were sold by frightened bears.

We may find out next week.

#54 maximummark

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 12:17 AM

Meanwhile, the undeclared war continues, with up to 600 sorties reported daily (and a B-52 run today for good measure), plus special forces seizing portions of the southern fields...Bush keeps the pressure on to invite an attack or Saddumb's asassination, with an international "coercive inspection force" as a CFR alternative so that everybody saves face...
Overall a positive for the market and it keeps the retail players off the field in large part, magnifying the volatility...But, that said, a puny followup, nothing like the repeated gaps in October, my bias is still to short, and playing DHB earnings walkup and FONR PR pops for kicks...

#55 turtle

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 12:24 AM

One other thing....

Poor Buddadropping will be retiring as the Color Commentator. He's had enough. He'll show up from time to time, but he has informed me that he has elected to enjoy life and remove himself from the Matrix Monitor......

That's what I was afraid of yesterday. Blackbelt, Fartfolio not post any more. Machinehead is not as out spoken as before. Mark is a bit worn out. Now Budda. Hate to see this site reduce to only waves and cycles.

#56 BarBu

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 12:32 AM

In my view using Fib's, e-waves, etc. to study market behaviour is like trying to understand the motion of planets using Ptolemy's medieval system (earth at the center of the universe) instead of Galileo's heliocentric solar system. Or search for black holes using astrology. :D

Science never stands still. Econophysics is breaking new ground.

Btw, today's is Einstein's birthday. Happy Birthday Albert! Wherever you are.

.....The works of Copernicus, Galileo, Keper and Newton gave astronomers an understanding of the way our Solar System (SS) functions. In his quest for geometric solutions to planetary motions, Johannes Kepler (1571-1630) discovered the first Three Laws of Planetary Motion... Newton would eventually demonstrate that Kepler's 'Harmonic Law' (like Keper's First and Second 'Laws') was a necessary consequence of the inverse-square relationship associated with Newton's principles of Universal Gravitation....

TheDeepBlueSea... You see, hereunto, there is a heritable heritage. I wish one day you will be the bridge links Elliott, You. and us. Before that moment, Elliott wave is as good as Keper.

#57 Drano

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 12:37 AM

Actually Blackbelt has been posting regularly on the TA intraday thread.
Of course I'm caustic!

#58 Grizzly_Canuck

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 12:56 AM

That's what I was afraid of yesterday. Blackbelt, Fartfolio not post any more. Machinehead is not as out spoken as before. Mark is a bit worn out. Now Budda. Hate to see this site reduce to only waves and cycles.

Yeah it's a shame Fartpolio left.

#59 Crapitulate

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 01:09 AM

Just to keep current.
I took my whippin' on RYVNX yesterday and decided not to sell at the close.
Today I decided not to selll again.
Reason; I bought it at 1310 NAZ and fully had faith the NAZ will beak Oct lows.
So I am down 11% or so.
However, if the NAZ does the eventual move down to where I believe it will, I have no worries.
So I hold.
If it goes too high, I buy more.
Until the long term trend is broken- we are in a bear.
So be it.

I'm kinda proud I didn't flinch.
Oct lows are about 300 points from here.

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Posted 15 March 2003 - 01:21 AM

(someone fired for showing up to work drunk and naked is not eligible to collect unemployment benefits; some other time, I'll tell you how I know this fact).

Sounds intriguing :wink2:

And thanks for the answers to my questions..





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