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Where Do We Go Furom Here?


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#1 BAREister

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 01:08 AM

Well....we've got CMAPS sayin' we're peakin', butt mebbe SNOT (see tonight re readjusments thereto) we've got all manner of TA indicators blown out that have been bearish FUR daze if SNOT weeks; we've got Wnydysrf apologizin' and coverin', we've got up to resistance butt not thru it, MEANINGFULLY; we've got guys like Inger foamin' at the mouth about a W bottom; we've got ASStro boyz like Arch repeatedly stopped out on the way up a la August callin FUR higher highs this week butt not yet takin a position in the major indicies on ONE hotline, anyway, describing recent pricing action as "very strange"; we got all manner of people buying all manner of garbage; we've got the NASTY risin' fASSter than the S&P led by same and the old suspect, the SOX and a general rally led by the financials and oils too, the old dawgs w their old TRIX yet again; we've got nearly every Tom, Dick and Harry w the slightest bullish susceptibility
thinking Wed and FURday are a LOCK FUR higher prices, and the cycle boyz yappin' endlessly about the 27th ass a major (Bradley?) turn date but split over whether it's a high or a low; we'vet big $ on the sidelines yet to commit even tho there's been a nominal breakout; we've got Da Boyz jammin FUR all their WORTH; we've got some like MERCI shortin', here, and udders, maybe thinkin' it's a top; we got Neely 50% short from slightly lower levels, and maybe a lot more things in addn to all these.

So out of this cauldron what is the most important in the witches' brew?

HRFF is guessin' but he thinx too many think this week is a sure-FUR ™ bet FUR higher prices, and that is how Ms Mkt might disappoint the most.

Of course this could be just anUDDER bear sandbagging, a further notch or scalp to dangle from the belt, a step on the way to a Dec rally to try to defeat a down year in the S&P and DJIA fueled by unseen FURces.

We'll c, the mkt looks like it may pull a punch here.

Emphasis upon "MAY".
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#2 chasmo

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Posted 26 November 2002 - 08:11 PM

Bare.... check out the bradley sidegraph. Has us going down now till 3-13- 03.Its record this past year pretty good.
http://home.san.rr.c...siderograph.gif

Have not posted much myself of late but always love reading your posts.
My concern about where we are going
with what the Bush people are up to probably as great as yours.
Has not been this bad since Johnson went to war in 1965. But t here is something different this time that seems even more scary.Bush is a throw back to the reactionary nationalism that got going world wide around 1880.The consequences of that had not played out till 1945.
I blame that partly on the romanticism In European thinking in the early part of the 19th century combined with the pseudo science of the late 19th wiith a little bit of Darwin thrown in. This led to racism and nationalism and this Bush would bring back with his finding a new enemy as an excuse for Pax America.
Iam a Bear partly as I see it as the only thing that can weaken the thrust the Bush people have as there is nothing like a bad economy to make their pontifications ring hollow.
Lets hope that Bradley thing is right. Myself Iam very confident that pluto next years destroys the tendency of Americans to live in a dream world and dream reality as it comes to the US mars and 90 degrees to the US Neptune.This starts in Febuary and will be a long term trend. I doubt we see the final bottom in March as some are thinking here. Once people see that the credit markets are a house of cards the consequences will play out for years.

#3 Guest_Guest_*

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Posted 27 November 2002 - 12:53 AM

BARE just hopes we're not on the cusp of some new Dark Age...

Who, really, here WANTS this market to crash?

HRFF doesn't see much choice; the Fates have decreed it MUST in his humble? LMAZZOFF opinion happen and, maybe, FUR sooner, rather than later.

This rally may be a lASSt gASSp ™ to FURstall ™ the inevitable.

We've sown and sown and sown and sown.

The whirlwind will be simply STUPEFYING when it arrives is his GUESS.

but who knows, maybe we can all AVOID it another FIFTY years. Shove it off on the KIDS, wot?

#4 BAREister

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Posted 27 November 2002 - 01:21 AM

BARE just hopes we're not on the cusp of some new Dark Age...

Who, really, here WANTS this market to crash?

HRFF doesn't see much choice; the Fates have decreed it MUST in his humble? LMAZZOFF opinion happen and, maybe, FUR sooner, rather than later.

This rally may be a lASSt gASSp to FURstall the inevitable.

We've sown and sown and sown and sown.

The whirlwind will be simply STUPEFYING when it arrives is his GUESS.

but who knows, maybe we can all AVOID it another FIFTY years. Shove it off on the KIDS, wot?

ADDITIONAL: BARE noted SNOT 'long' ago, here, oh, say around 890-900'ish on the S&P that it might constitute one of THE selling opportunities of the year. If Bradley is right, then, maybe, JUST maybe, BARE will be VINDICATED by enSUEing ™ pricing action. He said at the time that he thought the decline to come would be a slow, drawn out afFUR ™ rather than a precipitous plunge from around these levels.

In ANY event, the mkt hASS succumbed, once more to HAYWIRE theory, so FUR, anyway, being turned back from a crucial level.

Can they punch thru tomorrow and FURday?

We'll find out.

Today's action suggests SNOT, but these folx have all manner of TRIX up their sleeves, wot?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#5 Hypertiger

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Posted 27 November 2002 - 01:30 AM

Need another powerful bloodbath tomorrow to see whats up...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...





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