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#16 soup

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:07 PM

absolutely incredible that one can be talking about blow off tops this deep into the mother of all bear markets. IT is beyond belief.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg

#17 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:09 PM

I'm really getting sick of this market. The NDX should not be up like this for so very long (half a year now) with such high valuations and rapidly deteriorating fundamentals. Yet, it keeps on ramping -- or rather, holding what it ramped before. It's as if bad news moves the market up. Sure, most people would think that good earnings, cheap oil, low unemployment, etc. are what the market wants. But what the market really wants is bad news, as this generates negativity which justifies ever higher prices because such negativity is arguably "too extreme" at any moment.... *head spinning*

#18 Rubadub

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:14 PM

I mentioned yesterday a bit after the close that IBM and

MSFT exhibited a lot of strength in their volumes, reversal

and outside day patterns. Also mentioned my plan to

buy these as a hedge which I did and which saved me

several thousand dollars in unrealized losses by days end

today.

I mention this because one of the primary problems on

the board seems to be that there seems to be a majority

personality that tends to personify the mkts as a living

breathing entity that is probably: republican, stupid, corrupt,

clueless, immoral, mindlessly bullish, couldn't trade it's way

out of a wet paper bag, etc, etc, etc.

And the board tends to think of itself as the opposite of all

of the above, or "liberal and elite" to put a term on it.

Being liberal and elite makes one very good about finding

fault with everyone else (kinda like the French) and as such

can really get one blindsided by such idealogical

constraints when days like today occur!

And here's the point:

An attitude like this (or the other extreme) is a near

guarantee of FINANCIAL FAILURE in the trading

arena.

So what they're just a bunch of dumb bulls, you just

got CRUSHED!

Good traders always keep in mind that trading is a

DEFENSIVE game first and foremost!

Days like today drove that point home hard!

#19 PileDriver

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:17 PM

Back to the drawing board. Got stopped out of some positions at 823. IMHO, we might get to 850 on this move.

I'll be busy trying to configure this new computer so I won't have time tonight to berate anyone.

See ya Tomorrow.

Ditto :lol:

Good thing for stops, still came out ahead bigtime though with plenty-o ammo to fight another day!

Just in time for vacation next week too - now I have no worries. Probably won't miss much as OpX usually goes nowhere anyway. :grin:

Perhaps the May/June/July --> Nov decline will be "the big one". We'll see.

Orgy Tops are easy to spot, really thought this pig would hit deeper Dover Sole before significant rally, but hey that may still be the case but I need a break for now.

Market always gives you another opportunity.

#20 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:19 PM

Back to the drawing board. Got stopped out of some positions at 823. IMHO, we might get to 850 on this move.


Ditto. Stopped out at 823, now completely in cash (for the first time since January).

Looks like Buddha's gonna be right again -- up into OpEx. As of right now, I'm looking to get back into my shorts in the 850-870 SPX range. Today's action increased the short-side risks substantially... of course, there's always the possibility it was a fake-out -- but hanging in right now is just gambling/wishful thinking, imo. Best to retreat while your casualties are minimal and reasses the strategy. As of this moment, late next week looks better for shorts. Of course, that could always change between now and then. <_<
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#21 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:23 PM

Jeez, Pile. I was actually typing my response when you posted yours, so I hadn't read it until after posting. Great minds and all that. :D
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#22 Slothrop

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:24 PM

I mentioned yesterday a bit after the close that IBM and

MSFT exhibited a lot of strength in their volumes, reversal

and outside day patterns. Also mentioned my plan to

buy these as a hedge which I did and which saved me

several thousand dollars in unrealized losses by days end

today.

I mention this because one of the primary problems on

the board seems to be that there seems to be a majority

personality that tends to personify the mkts as a living

breathing entity that is probably: republican, stupid, corrupt,

clueless, immoral, mindlessly bullish, couldn't trade it's way

out of a wet paper bag, etc, etc, etc.

And the board tends to think of itself as the opposite of all

of the above, or "liberal and elite" to put a term on it.

Being liberal and elite makes one very good about finding

fault with everyone else (kinda like the French) and as such

can really get one blindsided by such idealogical

constraints when days like today occur!

And here's the point:

An attitude like this (or the other extreme) is a near

guarantee of FINANCIAL FAILURE in the trading

arena.

So what they're just a bunch of dumb bulls, you just

got CRUSHED!

Good traders always keep in mind that trading is a

DEFENSIVE game first and foremost!

Days like today drove that point home hard!

This is a political rant.

#23

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:27 PM

I'm completely out. Stopped out on two/thirds early this morning. Closed out the rest later. Tried a nibble . . . it bit back. Made a profit but, not like the paper profit I had a month ago. Still here to short another day though. Judgement day deferred. May scalp a little dong. Depends on my work load at the Rock Quarry. Lately it has been tough to stay on top of things closely and I would want to do that donging, even in this environment.

#24 coboy

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:28 PM

W.D. Gann said there are times when a man can make money and there are times when he can't no matter what.. One should wait for his time to come..

It's so true for me.. :(

The following is so scary, take it FWIW.. Don't shoot the messenger..


This is from Linda Rascke ::

Nasdaq Point and Figure chart

Posted Image


Earlier, we posted a chart of a LOW ADX which highlighted a long sideways line. Point and Figure is a superior methodology to get a "count" giving a price objective for a move in the event of a legitimate BREAKOUT. You can see that the market has not truly broken out yet, but when it does, the count projects a move to 1435.

#25 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:29 PM

This is a political rant.


Maybe. But his (or her) point does seem to be the market and how attitudes can impact trading decisions. I'd allow it, but I'm not the judge. :wink2:
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#26 turtle

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:33 PM

This is a political rant.

If you can't tolerate this kind of comment here, I'm afraid this forum will lose its value.

(DrStool @ Mar 13 2003, 04:30 PM)
I spent a lot of time deleting posts today. Once thing I don't want is criticism of, or attacks on the expressions of other stoolies. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, and everyone is free to express themselves in a creative way.

No one is right all the time. Give people a break. If you don't like the way they express themselves, skip their posts. Easy!

There's one sheriff and a couple of deputies around here. Leave the policing to them.  

Later.  



Why that heavy hand? After all let stoolies vent some frustration is part of forums' purpose. Who wants to post to some places where no one is going to read? This site is losing indenpent voices, which is not good in my opinion. Anyway, it's your site, I'll shut up if you don't like it.



#27 PileDriver

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:35 PM

Jeez, Pile.  I was actually typing my response when you posted yours, so I hadn't read it until after posting.  Great minds and all that.   :D

What a goof.

I don't play the game of second-guessing and covering before things happen, I just let myself get stopped out. :P

#28 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:35 PM

Meh. It's a political rant combined with backhanded bragging in the form of insulting others.

#29 coboy

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:36 PM

Again from Linda Raschke :

Nasdaq - LOW Daily ADX

Posted Image


Look how LOW the Daily ADX is on this Nasdaq index! LOW ADX's highlight a long line. The longer the line, the greater the trend move that can come out of that line. This market has the potential for a SIGNIFICANT upside sustainable rally!

#30 GregFokker

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 06:39 PM

W.D. Gann said there are times when a man can make money and there are times when he can't no matter what.. One should wait for his time to come..

It's so true for me.. :(

The following is so scary, take it FWIW.. Don't shoot the messenger..


This is from Linda Rascke ::

Nasdaq Point and Figure chart

Posted Image


Earlier, we posted a chart of a LOW ADX which highlighted a long sideways line. Point and Figure is a superior methodology to get a "count" giving a price objective for a move in the event of a legitimate BREAKOUT. You can see that the market has not truly broken out yet, but when it does, the count projects a move to 1435.

I'm not up on my p&f charting, but it looks like the NDX is still in a column of zeros even after today- no p&f buy signal yet. I assume I'm missing something- what's so scary about it?

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty






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