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#31 PileDriver


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:09 PM

QQQ Max pain 24.5, guess where we are now? :P

I'll stay short thank you very much and add more.

Whoever placed that market on close buy order, gee thanks for the free money ! :grin:

Ugly decline still dead ahead, enjoy the rapids ride its part of the sport!

P.S. Don't think too much, you'll shoot yourselves in the foot.

#32 Mr. Beal

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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:16 PM

That was the easiest ramp job to participate in that I have seen in a while. Perhaps too easy?

The Transports were waaay overextended to the downside, and gave a huge buy signal while the Dow was still near the lows, leading the way yet again. Absolute no brainer.

Tomorrow's action is important. For the sake of the bear case, we don't want to see a whole bunch of long white candles here. We have some room to rally though, so even if we do get the big up day tomorrow, the bulls are not out the woods by a long shot.

Almost all of the major Dow and Naz stocks are still trading below their 120,180,240 min 200 MAs. And most are just starting to roll over. Until we start trading and consolidating over those, there will be no monster rally, just one day wonders. Of course, a one day wonder that runs up to those averages could lead to a larger rally after consolidation.

That said, we panic rallied (complete with +1200 tick) right up into a good resistance area. We "probably" go right back down tomrrow. This is where it gets really interesting. I'm in scalp mode again until either today's lows are busted, or it is clear that indeed we have made a bullish reversal. I still favor bearish resolution.

The charts of the NDX reflect pretty much where we are.

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I think K is on to it. We open down in the morning. Keep in mind we've got retail sales and unemployment claims data before the open then the action is critical. Things to remember:

1) These bounces have become very short lived.
2) Energy Prices have been relentless (Crude has broken $38 again in the AH's)
3) Yes the world markets are due for a bounce but what are they going to draw upon for inspiration - Dow up 28? Internals still quite ill.
4) 80% of these moves happen in 20% of the time, look at the number of reversal days in June 2002.
5) OE does present buyers but the longer term ‘long sales’ need the buyers to sell into here.
6) Shorts bailed out again we’ll need fresh buyers to extend this.
7) The UN/British thing is simply not going well for Shrub & Co.
8) It takes this type of back and forth volatility to get the VIX up and really get the longs rattled.

We all know - I don’t know dung! And, we do trust Doc’s excellent work which as of today was calling for a 3 day swup but again there are a whole lot of bears around here looking for a OE rally and if Doc has been off at all in his work lately, his errors have been on the side of underestimating the selling.


#33 PileDriver


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:21 PM

GTN, yet another grace opp to dump that RYVYX fund buddy. Panic now, avoid the rush!

#34 Mr. Beal

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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:24 PM

One more thing, I haven't heard this much 'not going BK' BS about a stock (F) since WCOM.

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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:31 PM

Fwiw, I agree with PD in we're staring at more downside s/t. Regarding the upcoming eco data someone mentioned, we may be in the period where bad news is good news with fomc on deck 3/18. However, I have us just completed day 10 of confirmed down cycle. The last two have went 12 days but I usually see 12-15 days. I suspected we go 13-15 on this one, but Ds is into o/s as of yesterday on the daily. We bounced last cycle as Ds 12 so we are geting close...but down ain't over for the week.

#36 K Wave Rider

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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:32 PM

One more thing, I haven't heard this much 'not going BK' BS about a stock (F) since WCOM.

Yeah, one idiot went so far as to say that you don't have to worry about Ford's debt, because it is backed by auto loans. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Speaking of auto loans, just checked ACF price, $1.76. :lol: :lol: :lol:

#37 TheDeepBlueSea



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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:33 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – March 12, 2003

But the real bubble is clearly in the bond market:

Foreign buyers bought bonds, lots of bonds-SIA by Greg Morcroft

“Despite a continued bear market, foreign investors acquired nearly $507 billion in U.S. stocks and bonds in 2002, according to the latest data from the Securities Industry Association. The group said the results were second only to 2001's record $521 billion, according to the SIA's "Foreign Activity Report." Asia, particularly Japan and China, led the way in U.S. acquisitions, reaching $200.4 billion. More than 90 percent of foreign investors' U.S. acquisitions were in fixed-income products, with a new record set in net purchases of agency securities at $191.6 billion. Foreign investors' purchases of U.S. stocks however, dropped in 2002 to $49.5 billion, the lowest level since 1996's $12.5 billion. "With conflict in Iraq looming, foreign investment (predominantly by private investors) flocked to the relative safety of U.S. Treasuries, acquiring $83.2 billion in 2002," the report concluded.”

Have fun in Hawaii, the playground of Asian Exotica, Mark.

As for the bond bubble . . .

It's a constant source of amazement to me how those money managers in Europe and Asia never tire of playing the role of the Sucker to whatever Grift the money managers in the US dream up.

This goes all the way back to the founding of the US of A.

The railway boom, the 1920's, the 1960's, the 1980's, and 1990's and now the 2000's.

Of course, they have the US of A's own retail investors for company.
It just that you'd think they'd know better.

Grifters have an affectionate term for those types, who once scammed, keep coming back for more. In the strange hope that the grifters who took them to the cleaners will be the one to help them recoup their losses.

Grifters call such types "Reloaders" :lol:

#38 Mr. Beal

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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:40 PM

One more thing, I haven't heard this much 'not going BK' BS about a stock (F) since WCOM.

Yeah, one idiot went so far as to say that you don't have to worry about Ford's debt, because it is backed by auto loans. :lol: :lol: :lol:

Speaking of auto loans, just checked ACF price, $1.76. :lol: :lol: :lol:

I liked the "you don't go BK w/$15B in cash" ohh... yeah what about the rest of the balance sheet dick head?

#39 seamus


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:51 PM

Covered NTAP on the push through 9.40 this afternoon...good thing I entered the order early - cable service was down all afternoon.

Still short JDAS, will cover on any strength, though I think it sits at 10 for the next week. Also bought more QQQ Apr puts near the close.

Watching the pm comeback had me thinking of one thing today - Buddha's repeated warnings over the past few days. Glad I have been covering past few days but for the small QQQ put pos

#40 wndysrf


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 07:55 PM

Several columns on RealMoney and TheStreet.com confirmed Robot action today.

Heavy Program Buying late in day. Rally breadth wasn't that good, confirming that only a few stocks were getting the buying.

Also confirmed that Bob Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker listeners were piling in with fresh longs. Most loaded up on the Nasdaq, since it is expected to "outperform" during the rally.

Once again, what are the odds that "Techs and Semiconductors" Lead AGAIN??

Anything is possible, since the InterNuts are already leading.
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#41 GregFokker


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 08:21 PM

Went to the Montreal office of Interactive Brokers today to sign the last sheets and hand over a cheque representing all of my liquid trading roll. Very nice guys in a small office. Both seasoned veterans from the pits. Stayed far too long and walked 10 mins to the parking lot with one of the guys. Small little office full of servers. Showed them the Stool, and thought they were gonna bust a gut. Were floored by the Anals- one guy said he couldn't believe how much was packed into it.

Also got a demo of their interface, and can't believe they have any competition. By far the most comprehensive platform I've seen yet. Can't believe I've been suffering with Whattaho all this time, for 4-7 times the commissions.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty

#42 MaxxPain


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 08:24 PM

I covered my shorts on GE and C today. I just want to plan my next move. I'm still short 100 shares of AMGN from 52.7, no biggie wiggie deal. Still long GG. Still long May corn. I need to improve my trade management, my time management, my life management. I got alot of stuff to do.

#43 brian4


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 08:24 PM

Piles-K-wave and Beal have it right-it ain't over till the fat lady sings-anyone hear singing??? Dow-36 new highs-315-new lows-NazQuack-26 new highs-138 new lows. Down volume swamped up volume -the Dow is up 28 and the Spoo's 2 you call this O/E week racketeering? What this was today is an Dover Sole blip and a test of the weekly pivot of 789.40 on the Spoo's. Will it go higher-well there is resistance at 813-14,821 and massive resistance at 828-35 any of which could turn it back down or it could just croak at the open tomorrow. The wave pattern is incomplete so to me it means I raise my stop back to 831 for now and see what tomorrow brings. The news just gets bleaker another 5 states got downgraded today by Moodys and Fitch. The office of the Comptroller of currency reported today that derivatives at the 2nd quarter of 02 totalled 53.2 trillion UP 3.2 Trillion from the first quarter the biggest players were JPM,C and BAC. Have a read of Thom Calandras column at marketwatch to see how the Gubmint is passing regulations that will help these pigs HIDE their derivative exposure. FITB which cracked in 1/2 today said they expect a MODEST INCREASE in net Chargeoffs this quarter from last quarters (get this) 49.5 Million -this means this mid size piggy bank will probably charge off 200 million for the year-what will we hear from the BIG BOYZ??? Tonite in Asia and early tomorrow will tell us if there is any oomph behind this. Trade Safe!

#44 Downtick


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 08:34 PM

Don't think too much, you'll shoot yourselves in the foot.

Amen PD. I would have been whipped around 20 times if I tried to trade every jiggle in this market. The indices point down. The Oct. lows are like a magnet, and last I checked the sky really was falling. I got a target on the Dow of around 6,500 but I'll be covering around 6,600.

No way we escape this tractor beam.

#45 Metamucil


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Posted 12 March 2003 - 08:45 PM

Buck springing a woody.

Foreign currencies and crb looking to correct a little.

Could provide some fuel for a small equity rally....a bear rally....for bears....

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