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#196 On The Beach

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 03:08 AM

Racketeering week and pre racketeering are a reality and must be taken into account. Can't get around it. It's there. I covered a few shorts last week, and switched into a few new ones that were more promising for near term swings. Today at about 1:30PM est I covered all shorts. Profits taken. I am still waiting to enter any gold stock. So now I am all cash. Additionally, Doc's work is a tremendous help, and so are all the really good postings here at Stool. I will be watching to get back in, and maybe missing a few $ will be ok....a small price to pay for peace of mind and regrouping....

Covered various core shorts today @1330 about 70% and everything from Decemebr on. Posted at 1332 on IDS FTFOI. Some large ETF shorts breaking down the equipment and getting out of the rolling tanks way...

http://www.capitalst...=3&t=1655&st=40


Oops...just in...Philips lays off 1600 more paycheck collectors. Looks like more Europe bourses may be heaving and retching again this A.M. back to 1994 levels.

#197 Drano

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 03:16 AM

Futures have fallen off the cliff.
Of course I'm caustic!

#198 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 03:20 AM

Are we standing in for other people? Since HT doesn't seem to be around let me say that in 13 to 18 months none of us will be alive, no currently established governments will exist, and the land (at least all of N America) will be ruled by warlords. For reference, rent Mad Maxx Thunderdome or Escape from NY, or maybe Waterworld. All the buildings will be reduced to smoldering rubble, and the only mediums of exchange will be silver and gold coins, 24 packs of toilet paper, and edible consumables. Stock up now. My garage is already full floor to ceiling with 24 packs of Kirkland double ply from Costco.

#199 FeedFool

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 03:29 AM

Wrecked him
Trying to stay with your post, reading it for the third time. Great stuff, I recently purchased Neelys book but know it will be months before I read it. May get a boxers fracture or two trying to understand it all...lol. With my funnymentals and your technicals on amgn we cant go wrong...keep up the good work.

I remember when I first started shorting. Most overvalued stocks always go up. Bigger the short position higher it would go.

Look at the moving average ribbon. What does it says?


Take care.

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#200 Hypertiger

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 03:54 AM

13 - 18 months until POR... Where the old way of thinking totally collapses and absolute capitalism takes over from social capitalism...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#201 Pigeon Drop

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 04:14 AM

By the way HT, I'm not sure when you started saying 13-18 mos, but you have to adjust it with each passing month. I know you said 13-18 in February, not sure if you were saying that earlier like late last year. Since it was 13-18 in Feb, for example, and we are March now, you should be using 12-17 now I think. Or best thing would be to give dates which don't have be adjusted. POR by 3/04-8/04 for example.

#202 Jimbo

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 04:14 AM

THE BIG DOWN DEVELOPS A PIMPLE

We are still in the big down.

This rally but a poping pimple.

Maybe an up week from here but big down will resume with a vengence.
timoleon

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 04:22 AM

Massive gap up in UK this morning on relatively small US reversal last night...

Note Far East indices predominantly down.....

Smells a bit rotten to me.....trapping people in like this does not signal a rally to me...

Regarding yesterdays action - see my post - about 5th at premarket IDS...stated I almost expected a reversal. So sadly predictable. In fact the best way of making a buck as a day trader is reversing gap ups/ down.

Still riding the waves - have a plan and sticking to it. 780 on Spoos at least, but prob less than that.... (next 2-4 week timeframe). Will reverse then. Not ruling out a rise today in US. However, I do not day-trade therefore do not worry about short lived panic-rallies....

All the best,

Mark

#204 BAREister

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 04:29 AM

Say, there, Jimbo, itz probably "popping" not "poping" u meant to say...

Just guessin....

The BARE has never seen so many NERVUSSSS NELLIES in his LIFE.

FUR too many around here a runnin' FUR cover, wringing hands about cycles, jamjobs, option expiration and whathaveu, expectin some major POP a comin'. Even CrawFURd thinks one's gonna happen this month.

oh, YEAH?

Well, lettuce take it one day at a time, shall we???

The BARE is still heavily short.

And dissssssGUSTed at the nervousness he sees here.

of course, y'all might be RIGHT and The BARE may get his CLOCK CLEANED by SNOT payin' 'nuff attention.

Butt HRFF is going to stick his ARSE out and say a few things.

He thought breaking 801 important. FURther he thought the ease we slid to 790'sh was a bad portent FUR bullz. They shouldawouldacoulda fought HARDER FUR 800. They didn't, or couldn't.

He thinks if a rally comes in here it a.) won't go FUR and b.) won't lASSt 'long' (if you'll pardon use of the woid) He hASS great confidence in HAYWIRE theory, especially in the context of this INSANE war we're about to wage. Why The Shrub can't even get the PRELIMINARIES right! What makes y'all think something will come along to permit a huge rally NOW?

FURther, he thinks the war WON'T go NEARLY ass well as it's planners are COUNTING on FUR the brutally simple reason that war NEVER goes well, or, at least according to PLANS.
(Unless you're the Wehrmacht, of course, in 1939-1941)

The BARE doesn't think there's going to be a rally PRE or POST war the way nearly EVERY Tom, Dick and Harry does.

He thinks the markets are suffering from what he is beginning to suspect just MAY be the terminal phase of capitalism going haywire, albeit VERY slowly and in it's VERY nascent stage(s). That's really what we're witnessing, now, globally. EVERY major economy is in trouble and, speaking of bombs, there are huge ones ready to detonate - mostly debt-related.

NO one has the answers - just look at the fumbling/bumbling/stumbling in the world's second largest economy, and they are beginning to push the panic button.

Capitalism clearly isn't dead - butt it's mortally ill and headed FUR a hospice - one without adequate life support.

And no war will change that, either.

Mankind proposes, the markets dispose. And BOY are they "disposing"!!!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#205 BAREister

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 04:40 AM

Well, it USED to be they'd try to jam using BOTH SOX and the financials. They can't do THAT any longer so now they're going to try to pull up their SOX?

LMAZZOFF.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#206 Goldmember

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 05:26 AM

Europe seems to have sprung a serious woody along with Uncle Buck! Morning ASS & PEE low could well be the last chance to cover your shorts without too much pain being inflicted. I suspect this rally may develop some legs. :blink:

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Anthony caused pearls to be dissolved in wine to drink the health of Cleopatra; Sir Richard Whittington was as foolishly magnificent in an entertainment to King Henry V; and Sir Thomas Gresham drank a diamond, dissolved in wine, to the health of Queen Elizabeth, when she opened the Royal Exchange; but the breakfast of this roguish Dutchman was as splendid as either. He had an advantage, too, over his wasteful predecessors: their gems did not improve the taste or the wholesomeness of their wine, while his tulip was quite delicious with his red herring.here

#207 torah man

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 07:38 AM

DBS,

I hope you are LONG and Stay that way. :angry:

:lol:

Hey GTN showed up - he was bearish..

Yeah, that's the bad news.

Usually when the bears are s***in' in the woods, and picking fights with each other, we go down big the next day. But we've never had GTN go bearish at the same time. Sideways motion tomorrow?

gtn talks bearish but he puts his money in like a bull. still holding a long position but hoping down???? :blink:

#208 GregFokker

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 10:13 AM

I've just finished deleting a slew of posts.

If you disagree with each other, then do so like adults. If you cannot, then keep it to yourself. Namecalling, insults, telling each other to go away, telling others to stop posting or to slit their throats will get your post deleted. If you seriously think that you've got enough on the ball to tell another poster that his analysis, opinion, bias or focus is not worth others' consideration, then think again.

The stuff I just read and deleted was an embarassment to this board.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#209 TheMotleyStool

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Posted 13 March 2003 - 11:05 AM

Say, there, Jimbo, itz probably "popping" not "poping" u meant to say...

Either that or "pooping."

Regardless, it looks like the degenerate gamblers have us against the table. Let's see if they can force a hammer and other bullish patterns and get Joe Sixpack to think it's safe again....





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