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#31 3Martinis


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 06:58 PM

*hic* OT...


You may already have dis, BUTT here's a link to a (near) real-time earthquake lisht with globe locations and mucho detailsh........



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Posted 11 March 2003 - 06:59 PM

Re: BBOX nice call! Congrats! :lol:

#33 BigWave


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:00 PM

BBOX warns big.  Halted.

that's on my Pig Pile :lol:

Jerry, ALTR's rally won't last long.

Great short opp!


Sweef, look at all those wave 2 a-b-c rallies. Its chock full of them. Holy cow we're going down hard.

I covered ALTR on Monday AM, early as usual. Looks like we get another crack at this now. Tanks for the heads-up JM.


#34 PileDriver


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:05 PM

High Five ! :lol:


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:06 PM

Hey Calculus - did you hear about the constipated mathematician? He worked it out with a pencil. :blink:

Pile - you doin the honors?

Had to cover my BER short for only a few hundred in the green. They nounced news of an .11 cent dividend increase
so I covered fast. It jumped about .40 cents. and will likely go up a dollar tomorrow. For an .11 cent increase!! sheesh!

Depends -- some back-of-envelope analysis and I think BER can be a good short after this dividend-related runup. They are a specialty p&c insurer with a leveraged balance sheet. Just issued $200mm debt and I guess part of that proceeds will be used to finance the dividend -- a pretty dangerous leverage play. After the debt offering their balance sheet will be even more leveraged - debt in total will be north of $700mm and equity at $1.3 bn, pretty high level compared to other insurance companies, and its stock appears to be overvalued at roughly 2x book value (normally p&c insurers valued at roughly 1-1.5x book). So fundamentally speaking it's a good short candidate if you have an intermediate time frame of 3-6 months.

#36 EasyAl


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:06 PM

NEWTON, Iowa -- Maytag Corp. (NYSE:MYG - News) warned it won't meet first-quarter expectations, as results began to weaken in February.

The appliance maker didn't provide specifics as to new guidance, but did say operating earnings in February were 25% below plan. It cited "weak volumes and deteriorating sales-mix shift to lower-priced models" of its Hoover floor-care products, as well as the weak overall retail environment.

When the company released its fourth-quarter results in January, Maytag said it expected "normalized" first-quarter earnings of 70 cents a share. The company didn't define "normalized."

One sad thing is that the domestic appliance and furniture makers have not benefitted greatly from residential real estate bubble. Marc Faber was saying that appliance and furniture imports from China have surged 70%. As the residential real estate slows down, many dometic appliance and funiture makers will fully participate the down side. Greenspan 12 rate cuts have created a lot of jobs in China.

#37 PileDriver


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:09 PM

here's another steamer


They report 3/20 :grin:

#38 flockofsheeples


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:11 PM

High Five ! :lol:

I'm with you pile...short the POS's in a down market. No sense in chasing ebay/amgn or any of the "strong" stocks...why bother? Have you got a prelim list to go dong with when we hit the bottom?
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:15 PM

cTanks TE.

Mark, the McClellan ozzie is indeed suggesting a very ST pop. That would be great, I would welcome it with open arms. I would love to see a little relief rally right up into the Bradley March 13th turn date that way the market can fall more :lol:

Looking at the Summation the IT trend remains down and that's what I follow now. BPI's aren't low enough to suggest a durable bottom yet and VIX and p/c ratios are not either, in fact they're still indicating a top - holy crap, when will those dippers give up?!

To me the ST pops don't matter, I positioned when it was the lowest risk time to do so (Dec/Jan), sitting on a huge pile of steaming dung and coin, and I don't have to worry and fret as much now. With each passing day it gets easier and easier as the noose tightens around my pieces of CRAPOLA.

The hard part is entering, that's why I pushed myself to get in back then. But more importantly the trick is to STAY IN and not let pops trick you out. That's why you have to follow IT indicators as well as ST ones.

Getting out solves one problem but gives you another - you have to figure out how to get back in.

When opportunity knocks...well you know.

Again, well said, Pile. This is exactly what happened to me -- got too freaked out and covered too soon beginning of last week and now wish I had stayed in, and wondering how I could go back in? Shoulda followed the IT indicators, like you said. Another lesson well learned. ;)

#40 FeedFool


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:33 PM

Waiting for a war rally?

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#41 depends


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:34 PM

Jerry - I may reshort BER once the news is absorbed. Tanks - I
know its a POS

#42 Rubadub


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:37 PM

RE: McClellan, the osc is showing very ST divergence, but

the bigger picture shows a descending triangle forming

from Aug to present. Also, the recent high is a few degrees

lower than a downside trend across the prior highs

showing erosion. The telling divergence, IMO, is that of

the Summation index with the McClellan. The last month-

long up move in McClellan was NOT accompanied by

confirmation by the Summation but rather a SIGNIFICANT

divergence to the downside (i.e. late Jan to about Mar 1st).

This is trouble for bulls IMO as neither the Osc or the

Summation Index are anywhere close to Dover Sole. Add to this

the "complancency" in the VIX the overall low volume as we

decline and I think you've got an ugly

surprise in store for the bulls.


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:48 PM

If you are patient with some of these insurance stocks shorts, the potential reward can be huge. Just look at what happened to UNM in the last two days. Overleverage and liquidity concern can kill an insurace company stock, very quickly. BER can be next?

#44 Cchan


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 08:13 PM

They just kick AMR out of S&p500, kicking out a loser and bring in another future loswer

#45 Oilman


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Posted 11 March 2003 - 08:20 PM

I you live in the US and want to short or long the DAX what can you do?

Many thanks,


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