More Robot Volatility
145 replies to this topic
Posted 11 March 2003 - 06:58 PM
You may already have dis, BUTT here's a link to a (near) real-time earthquake lisht with globe locations and mucho detailsh........
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:00 PM
I covered ALTR on Monday AM, early as usual. Looks like we get another crack at this now. Tanks for the heads-up JM.that's on my Pig Pile
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:06 PM
Depends -- some back-of-envelope analysis and I think BER can be a good short after this dividend-related runup. They are a specialty p&c insurer with a leveraged balance sheet. Just issued $200mm debt and I guess part of that proceeds will be used to finance the dividend -- a pretty dangerous leverage play. After the debt offering their balance sheet will be even more leveraged - debt in total will be north of $700mm and equity at $1.3 bn, pretty high level compared to other insurance companies, and its stock appears to be overvalued at roughly 2x book value (normally p&c insurers valued at roughly 1-1.5x book). So fundamentally speaking it's a good short candidate if you have an intermediate time frame of 3-6 months.
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:06 PM
One sad thing is that the domestic appliance and furniture makers have not benefitted greatly from residential real estate bubble. Marc Faber was saying that appliance and furniture imports from China have surged 70%. As the residential real estate slows down, many dometic appliance and funiture makers will fully participate the down side. Greenspan 12 rate cuts have created a lot of jobs in China.
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:11 PM
I'm with you pile...short the POS's in a down market. No sense in chasing ebay/amgn or any of the "strong" stocks...why bother? Have you got a prelim list to go dong with when we hit the bottom?
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:15 PM
Again, well said, Pile. This is exactly what happened to me -- got too freaked out and covered too soon beginning of last week and now wish I had stayed in, and wondering how I could go back in? Shoulda followed the IT indicators, like you said. Another lesson well learned.
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:34 PM
Jerry - I may reshort BER once the news is absorbed. Tanks - I
know its a POS
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:37 PM
RE: McClellan, the osc is showing very ST divergence, but
the bigger picture shows a descending triangle forming
from Aug to present. Also, the recent high is a few degrees
lower than a downside trend across the prior highs
showing erosion. The telling divergence, IMO, is that of
the Summation index with the McClellan. The last month-
long up move in McClellan was NOT accompanied by
confirmation by the Summation but rather a SIGNIFICANT
divergence to the downside (i.e. late Jan to about Mar 1st).
This is trouble for bulls IMO as neither the Osc or the
Summation Index are anywhere close to Dover Sole. Add to this
the "complancency" in the VIX the overall low volume as we
decline and I think you've got an ugly
surprise in store for the bulls.
Posted 11 March 2003 - 07:48 PM
If you are patient with some of these insurance stocks shorts, the potential reward can be huge. Just look at what happened to UNM in the last two days. Overleverage and liquidity concern can kill an insurace company stock, very quickly. BER can be next?
Posted 11 March 2003 - 08:13 PM
They just kick AMR out of S&p500, kicking out a loser and bring in another future loswer
Posted 11 March 2003 - 08:20 PM
I you live in the US and want to short or long the DAX what can you do?
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