Poole To Potato Head: "we Have A Problem"
167 replies to this topic
Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:17 PM
Wow, I think we can all see the game da boyz are playing at the moment. They bring the whole thing up to kill the bears and take in the bulls, then they take it down to kill the bulls and take in the bears. After all the selling take place (I did notice the orderly sell off today), they will rally this thing up again to kill all the bears if they are not smart and have stops in place (a plan) and then bring in the bulls once again and for the last time in the second half. What a sweet racket!
Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:26 PM
Maybe they'd better allocate $900 billion or so for rebuilding the NASDAQ.
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Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:34 PM
First of all belated tanks to Doc for defining "Everyone"; and tanks to BARE for history lessons (in the Friday/weakend M2M).
Is there only me who catches Shrub saying, "We want peace... so we start war"?
What amazing hypocrisy!
There is now no doubt the attaq on eye-rack will occur, imo - but what is the likely effect on mkts?
Mkts are moved by emotions. In most previous outbreaks of military hostilities, the public mood became one of solidarity as a common aggressor was resisted. This lead to a 'feel good' factor and general buoying of public sentiment which, in turn, led to a mkt rise.
The forthcoming USA attaq is not widely-supported, so it seems likely that no 'feel good' factor will ensue this time.
However, it is apparent that the mkts are in a holding pattern (range-bound) until the attaq gets under-way and uncertainty is removed. Once the attaq situation clears, the mkts will almost certainly make a major spike.
If the spike is up, we can, probly, expect a retest of the highs of the recent trading range, no follow-through and a rapid reversal. If the spike is down, we can, probly, expect a return to the primary ascending bull-line (drawn through Oct-02 and Feb-03 lows) before the next leg of the bear mkt gets underway.
P.S. This just in... France says "non!" and will veto the attaq. (Thanks to FxFox for the image).
Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:37 PM
In March of 2002, the USD was valued at $1.20 and Gold was valued at $290 USD / oz.
In March of 2003, the USD is valued around .97 and Gold is valued around $350 / oz.
This represents a 19% decrease in the value of the USD in one year and, on its face, represents a 21% increase in the price of Gold over the same time frame.
But since Gold is priced in US Dollars (as opposed to Euros or some other currency), doesn't this indicate that gold has not had nearly as significant a move as one may perceive - given that a purchase of gold one year ago (in dollars) would essentially only have acted as a hedge against the decline in value of the USD (give or take 2%) if you turned your Krugs back into cash today (not counting the 8% - 10% round trip sales commission)?
Don't get me wrong - I'm going to buy some physical gold at some point, but just had this revelation today, that gold not only acts as a hedge against inflation, but acts as a hedge against the dollar's decline as well (though more in a wealth preservation mode than a profit mode). This nearly 1:1 ratio against a deflating dollar is better than a stick in the eye until inflation finally kicks in - or the demand for delivery of gold lights a supply/demand fire under the physical gold market, but I'm just wondering, is the above analysis correct, or am I just missing something?
Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:43 PM
The cycles are down. It is only the duration and slope which are in question. Mostly the slope. When down phases are lined up like this, they almost always accelerate in the terminal phase. Could last 1 to 3 weeks. Thats enough time for it to get uglier than I thought it would be.
And I thought it would be damned ugly.
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Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:44 PM
According to WSJ article here the contract is valued at $900 million.Maybe they'd better allocate $900 billion or so for rebuilding the NASDAQ.
Posted 10 March 2003 - 07:50 PM
Doc, I've never found you sexier than you are at this very moment.
Posted 10 March 2003 - 08:22 PM
Anyone who bought physical gold using Euro 6 months ago has lost money.
So you are correct - gold has gone down relative to Euro as a hedge against the $. I wonder if that will reverse if Euro starts to go down due to the general malaise in Europe?
Posted 10 March 2003 - 08:27 PM
Well said BARE!
It really is sooooo sick the way these people think.It is difficult to believe that society has come so far in many ways,yet ends up with a leader and bunch of disciples to whom human life means zilch(unless of course they are American military personell-in which case they become heroes defending the fatherland).And even that feigned sorry from the polits cannot be dwelled upon for long, lest the public get the idea that war is really about killing and maiming and that it can also happen to the "good guys".
It is pretty obvious that they are predominantly a load of Vietnam draft-dodgers from a privileged elite who have never had any first-hand experience of the horror that war is.
It is also ironic that these uncivilized barbarians are about to destroy a part of the world regarded by many as "the cradle of western civilization".
And only barbarians without battle experience could think up a method of attack that involves the use of hundreds of cruise missiles full of depleted uranium on a densely populated city.
If I weren't an atheist I would be praying for a bolt of lightning to be directed at the guilty!
Posted 10 March 2003 - 08:31 PM
Hey October lows...
RYTPX (SPX) still outperfoming RYVNX (NDX)
Posted 10 March 2003 - 08:32 PM
Is that Merciless' BBQ I smell ? .....Australia and Japan getting smoked......good to have ya back!
" I' ve got a left handed hook and a right handed hook, the pros are gonna love me, I'm amphibious"
NC STATE UNIVERSITY
Posted 10 March 2003 - 08:41 PM
As usual we are so close to the DOOM zone.
Will it be a case of so close but no coconut.
Or will the donkey's back finally break.
Reflecting on Vesselin's graphical presentations of
market's collapsing despite Dover Sole conditions
I would have to say it is possible.
But sadly I think the market might survive another
3-6 months? So as usual I am being cautious.
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