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#61 rayok

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:05 PM

So the QQQ's were up .2%. Wasn't that the squeeze from hell? Greenspan and the PPT don't worry me. Bill Gates is on my side, and we sell over valued tech stocks. Still positioned for a retest of the Oct. lows. :P

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:08 PM

Hmmmm where did I read that out of 100 people who start out to be traders only 1 actually makes it? Think it might have been one of Christopher Tate's books. Anyway, the point is that's its a huge challenge, certainly the hardest thing I've ever taken on. Unfortunately there's just no short cut, one has to experience the agony & the ecstasy and following someone else move for move is not gonna make you a trader. Observe with interest but in the end its YOUR money and YOUR life that's on the line.

http://www.signalwat...markets_dow.asp has some illuminating charts. Check out the 60 min, lurching from one bearish setup to the next. Might also mention that anytime the futures are down hard, that drop & pop scenario invariably appears...

Closed out Newscorp put on Fri for 57%. Not bad for a one week trade. Bought a Qantas put and still sitting in a couple of puts on retailers, one of which dropped below support on Fri. Any rise on the market I would consider a shorting opportunity at this juncture...

#63 ThorAss

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:10 PM

B4, Thanks for the kind words thanks also to Mark for keeping up his end so to speak and to Merciless for returning and all the others who make this colourful forum what it is. I do think that Windy was a little harsh on B4 but I feel for his sentiment.
For my part, neither a bull nor a bear be. Bear skins on my body and bull horns on my head. Know your timeframe, know your strategy, and trade against the primary trend of your timeframe at your own peril.
For those who want to find out "What's up with the precious metals?" I implore you to visit, Outpost #29.
Don't forget to check out Doctor Gold's spin on the PMS.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#64 gruff

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:12 PM

"There is absolutely no doubt that the QQQ bears have the upper hand in the current market struggle." - Adam Hamilton [in article linked by purdymouth]

If you review the results of successful mechanical trading systems, the "winning trades" are usually less than 50% of total trades. But since the dollar value of winning trades is typically 2-3 times larger than the losers, the system makes money on balance. A winning system has a statistical edge, but it isn't huge, and the system is more often wrong than right.

For any real-world system trader, a statement that "there is absolutely no doubt" that bears have the upper hand is ludicrous. It would be equally ludicrous if he had "absolutely no doubt" that bulls have the upper hand.

This kind of chest-thumping posturing is characteristic of poseurs who scribble instead of trade for a living. I like Hamilton's colorful charts and over-the-top huffing and puffing, as entertainment. But I'll bet he's a paper trader rather than a real-money trader. Successful traders are humble, because the market repeatedly humbles you.

Machine,

Never a truer word spoken and well worth repeating.

I would add: successful traders don't think too much - traders do not PREDICT, they REACT. They know the price levels which will initiate an action, be it buy or sell, then they simply do it. Now that , to me, is SIMPLE.

Oh... and a coupla definitions just for good measure:
Trader/speculator takes a short-term position based upon price movement ;
Investor builds ownership of/in a company over time.

success!
gruff.

#65 MrHanky

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:15 PM

I'm still here and checkin posts whenever I'm home.was setting up for springsteen all day and I have to go back soon.It's a struggle lately...not enough work to pay the bills this time of year .I think I should start a website and start cyberbegging because it's getting a little tight.

The only thing I own right now are some high rated corporate bonds and even they were down 2% on the week.

I feel I should be short but I don't want any position long or short right now.hoping to short a "war rally" if it comes.If it doesn't appear I will just stay on the sidelines.


I'm considering taking most my trading cash and paying off my house and and car so my monthly nut is more reasonable...not sure if it is the right thing to do or not.

Nothing


#66 PileDriver

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:15 PM

FWIW

John Murphy was just on NBR and says we are approaching a near term bottom. I will post the link tomorrow when they put the interview on the NBR site.

That's okay isn't it Doc?

He's right. It's called the October lows.

Regards

WH

yeah, I agree too. He's right.

We're "approaching"...

Gee thanks for the tip John!

#67 brian4

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:19 PM

WH and PHAT-priceless humour-pixie dust and approaching the Oct. lows-I luv it. Greg-You're a hell of a writer and know the wacko personalities of this board well. O.K. Driver we want the down and dirty details of BOYZ nite out-who got to push the wheelbarrow?? And since there is no Mousy tonite are we to assume he is worshipping the porcelain God?? Now on Gold if you've noticed the Commercials have closed 2/3's of their shorts-oooooh bottom time I say!

#68 wrecked him

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:23 PM

I'm watching the bull bear debate on Crapvision. Maybe I am having a mini stroke, but I cannot for the life of me tell the difference between the opinions of these 2 gentlemen. They're both bullish. They're just calling one a bear for the halibut.

Regards

WH
A generation which ignores history has no past -- and no future

#69 Jorma

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:29 PM

Globex is quoting the NDX at 970, the cash close was 986. S&P 811, cash close was 828. I assume this is a mistake. Right?

War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
William Eastlake 'The Bamboo Bed'

Change you can suspend your disbelief in.
Fafblog


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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:35 PM

Globex is quoting the NDX at 970, the cash close was 986. S&P 811, cash close was 828. I assume this is a mistake. Right?

Maybe a mistake but that is what I'm seeing too.

#71 phatbubble

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:36 PM

would you short this thing?

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Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:36 PM

Mr Hanky: pay off the debts, its the most wonderfully satisfying feeling being debt free. :)

#73 gruff

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:39 PM

Unfortunately, everyone is right, both here and in the market, and that's the whole problem.   Everyone is right in a different timeframe, on a different scale, at different times, and on and on it goes like a presocratic paradox.

I've managed to be short since the midpoint off the October lows.  I had at that time realized that I was paying more to Wattahose than to myself, and began to take longer leveraged positions and hold them.  It was precisely the wrong time for that strategy, but that being the case, I've managed to advance since then, money-wise.  I'm at about breakeven this year.  What's far more frustrating than the financial side of the trades is the emotional dimension, because I'm a fraction of the trader I was last year.  It hurts worse to not be nimble than to not make money, particularly because I see the plays all day long.  I need to bail on this position, let the cheque clear to my new borkerage, and get moving again.

Quick scalps with very tight stops is the right way.  Best is to position trade the secular trend and then hedge on hedge off intraday for profits, preferably with trailing stops.

Brian4 is too nimble for the average trader to emulate.  But more than that, every good trader is right, but in a different way.   How many can follow Blackbelt's trades?  How many can follow Oyster's trades?  The true value here is trickle down of trading brilliance, and comeraderie.  Mark, your balls-to-wall short n hold attitude taught me how to swagger in my trades and believe in my positions.  Doc taught me how to deeply understand a chart.  Bontchev taught me how to never stop learning.  Merciless taught me how to get off on what I do.  Brian4 taught me how to have no fear.  Simple Guy taught me to combine chart patterns with fib retracements and then to trust what I see.  Plungeprotector taught me to read the p/c ratio.   Blackbelt taught me to care about Time.  Piles taught me how I'd trade if I had a big account and could afford to do it optimally.  Rockhead taught me discipline.  Rich taught me to keep exploring.  Slothrop, Sweef, Sniff, Thor, ... the list goes on.

But my trades are my trades.  Advice on what to do and when?  I don't need that.  Feeble traders follow others' picks.  Real traders accept advice about how to be a better trader.  No one can be responsible for another's positions, and only a fool could believe it's any different.

I seem to have my 'parrot head' on tonight... but at de risk of repeating myself, GF's post is well-worth repeating.

I know I, also, have learned much from all the 'greatest' on this site. And perhaps, the greatest thing I have learned is that this bear mkt is definitely NOT for novices. A novice comes with the incumbent notion of 'buy and hold'. The novice then begins to think he's smart by reversing the logic: if in a bull mkt one buys-n-holds, then in a bear mkt one 'sells-n-holds' - right? WRONG!

Proof? In a bull mkt buy de 52-wk highs, and (chk it out for yourself) ye will do very well indeed. In a bear mkt sell de 52-wk lows and ye will get nowhere (at best).

A bear mkt is NOT de opposite and equal to a bull mkt, it's a completely different animal altogether.

By all means, pick any one of the accomplished traders on this site, who freely offer their trading prowess for all to examine and learn from, and follow their lead. However, only follow when ye understand their methodologies and the parameters of their trading systems.

Hint: keyword = traders. I see NO investors in these here parts.

success!
gruff.

#74 mjkst27

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:41 PM

Test post please ignore :)

#75 ernstime

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Posted 07 March 2003 - 09:51 PM

B-4 has always been helpful to me. He has answered a few of my questions personally. He has save me money. I do think he really cares and would not lead anyone astray on purpose. I like his enthusiasm. Thanks





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