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#451 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 01:47 AM

Magoo: "Pick up the damn receiver. I know you're p***d at me butt we need to talk!!!"

Shrub: "Hello?"

Magoo: "Well, are you going to move? Tokyo's cratering, so is HK."

Shrub: "Can you keep NY propped up FUR just a few more days? We've got to screw around with this BLEEP! UN thingy one more time."

Panic, what panic?

Their big problem is that the banks count their stock holdings as part of their reserves. If the market keeps falling, the banks reserves wil fall below the 8% or so required by the Central Bank's Bank - the BIS.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Govt, BOJ Poised To Avert Stock Market Crash

Monday, March 10, 2003 (The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Monday evening edition)

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The government and Bank of Japan are ready to do their utmost to prevent any sharp decline in the stock market, government and central bank sources said Monday.
The central bank will consider pumping more liquidity into the banking system, so that fears about financial institutions running out of funds prior to the end of their fiscal year on March 31 will not cause a fund shortage in the money market. The Ministry of Finance and the BOJ will also sell yen to curb any rise in the Japanese currency.
A further drop in share prices is expected to negatively impact the operations of banks and life insurance companies, which have substantial shareholdings, prior to the end of their business years. The widely anticipated U.S. war against Iraq is also adding to jitters in the stock and currency markets.
At Monday's Diet session, Economy and Financial Services Minister Heizo Takenaka said, "We must stay alert considering the Iraqi situation."
Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi has also repeatedly said that the government will act to stabilize the securities market.
The government and central bank, however, have already exhausted almost all the policy options at their disposal. While the Diet is now debating the fiscal 2003 budget plan, the huge budget deficit makes it difficult to implement additional fiscal or tax measures. Although Takenaka hinted at taking action to counter market jitters caused by the looming crisis in Iraq, he has yet to formulate any specifics.
If the yen keeps appreciating, amid a major stock market slump, the Finance Ministry and BOJ are likely to resort to massive intervention in the foreign exchange market.
The central bank has been conducting "covert" yen-selling operations since January to hide its interventions in the market. But if international tensions over Iraq heighten even further, the BOJ will likely take more dramatic action to curb the yen's rise, anal cysts say.

#452 dumpabuck

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 01:52 AM

"Mr. Nikkei, he dead."

Drops below 8,000 Intraday

Translation:

Nikkei-san wa shindai yo (!)

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 01:56 AM

DeepBlueSea, Woolworths (WOW) is regarded as a well managed company however I think retail is doomed because of the looming recession/depression scenario. The daily chart also appears to be forming a massive head and shoulders formation (2000 to present). It is possible that WOW could retrace all the way to $A5.00. I'm sure you have all the appropriate stops in place though :)

#454 dumpabuck

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:04 AM

Here is somthing to think about: what about liquidating your 401K and eject the powder from the matrix. I am not saying I am going to do it, but just thinking out loud. If hypertiger is correct, then our 401k will not be worth anything anyway.

Oilman

Be interested in others' suggestions, but the only way to do it w/o penalty is to roll it over, currently 3K / yr (soon, 4K then 5K / yr) into a 'traditional' IRA, then (later) convert this to a Roth IRA, from where you can do withdrawals w/o penalty.

What I haven't figured out is how to 'continuously' convert from traditional -> Roth IRA. But the Feds might radically change IRA law anyway soon.

#455 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:07 AM

DeepBlueSea, Woolworths (WOW) is regarded as a well managed company however I think retail is doomed because of the looming recession/depression scenario. The daily chart also appears to be forming a massive head and shoulders formation (2000 to present). It is possible that WOW could retrace all the way to $A5.00. I'm sure you have all the appropriate stops in place though :)

Thanks for the info on Woollies (WOW)

Wouldn't recognize a stop if it bit me on the nose.

So it's probably time to think about selling. :)

Fwiw, thinking about Darwin made me nostalgic (can you believe it?)
and I looked up the Hotel Darwin. Was very disappointed to see that
it had been knocked down in 1999 despite being a historical building and one of the few that survived the great cyclone of 197?.
It held great sentimental value for me :cry:

The Grand Old Duchess - Hotel Darwin

#456 buttugly

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:09 AM

Talking good franchises - there is a franchise
in Australia that I think offers a near religious experience
- boostjuice.com.au I don't know how they do it but
it is awesome stuff. I think it would do well in the US -
particularly in CA.

But then I thought In&OUt burger would take over the
world and it hasn't? :blink:

#457 ThorAss

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:19 AM

Down at KKD, Doc's favourite is obviously the KKD, the Karlos Kastaneda Doughnut, a perfect konfection lovingly prepared with golden dough, sweet sugar and generously laced with peyote.
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.

#458 BAREister

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:36 AM

It's cASStenada, u MAROON, SNOT "Kaste>>>NADA" LOL

And you r supposedly supposed to CHEW peyote "buttons", he sez.

KKD's MELT IN YOUR MOUTH*!!!

*M&M's is p****d as sh** about that and it's going to SUE their d*** a** over it, TOO!!!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#459 BAREister

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:40 AM

"Their big problem is that the banks count their stock holdings as part of their reserves. If the market keeps falling, the banks reserves wil fall below the 8% or so required by the Central Bank's Bank - the BIS."

Don'tchewASSk what's been goin' on lately in that regard in the UK with the guys who have the REAL $ - the INSURERS.


Just don't ASSk!!!
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#460 BAREister

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 02:43 AM

Doc, u have a cup of steaming hot Java at midnite and you'll be up until 3 a.m., easy! LOL
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#461 lb

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 03:00 AM

Doc, u have a cup of steaming hot Java at midnite and you'll be up until 3 a.m., easy! LOL

Thatís right Doc, just say no to drugs.

#462 stiffed

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 03:14 AM

Don'tchewASSk what's been goin' on lately in that regard in the UK with the guys who have the REAL $ - the INSURERS.


But that is an interesting question though....

UK insurers (who I hear are carrying a lot of counterparty risk!! :D ) have to keep a certain reserve available to pay claims. Problem is that they are allowed to keep that reserve in stock (and property investments). As stocks have fallen, so have their reserves.

Three weeks ago, the UK Financial Services folks changed the laws to allow UK insurers to keep less reserves.

Hey! if the rules don't fit reality - change the rules!

However the UK FTSE indexes have continued to fall, so it looks like all the FSA has achieved is to make sure the insurers are legally unable to pay the claims that are being made on their reserves. I can't believe that two million years of evolution have brought us to this!

The FSA has also been warning for about nine months that a major UK financial institution is about to go to the wall.

Rumours have been flying around that it is huge UK insurer Equitable Life that it is talking about, but other rumours point to British Bank Abbey National (which started playing in the junk bond sandpit and then discovered how sand gets in your eyes).

Wouldn't surprise me if 10-Sigma came out of the UK. But then it wouldn't suprise me if it came out of anywhere else either :blink:

stiffed

#463 Guest_alex_*

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 03:52 AM

Could someone pls get that kid a kleenex? :P

Doc, I thought there was a minimum age restriction on this site.

#464 K Wave Rider

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 04:36 AM

Let's see how the market handles this one.

Economists Chop 2003 US GDP Forecast

#465 On The Beach

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Posted 10 March 2003 - 05:26 AM

Let's see how the market handles this one.

Economists Chop 2003 US GDP Forecast

More absurd, irresponsible blame cast upon Iraq 'uncertainty' and weather. YA-f'king -WN. Who actually belives this crap? THE FACT IS present economic growth is totally dependent on rapid debt growth and debt is imploding. When all these poor saps buying homes realize how much their state and muni taxes are going up and actually start to sip on the boubona and muster up the courage to peak into those 401K returns they keep tossing...bye, bye housing bubble. Hello, my big fat American Depression. Of course, LA will be the last to fully deflate and be hurt the worst.





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