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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 04:09 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – March 6, 2003

Every guy has gotten into that argument with their girlfriend about the proper “body weight”.

“I think you are gaining weight.”

“No, I’m not, I’m still under 135.”

“What?? 135 is too heavy. You should be in the 120’s.”

“No, the acceptable range within my height class is 126 – 134.”

“So how much do you weigh, exactly?”

“I’m 134.”

“Well, that’s right on the border. Two more pounds and you will be “topping estimates” and will fall in the “fat” category.”

“No, the 126-134 range is the “average” category, and some actually use a higher range, more like 128 – 139.”

“No way. Anything over 130 is “beating the street” and is “fat” in my opinion. You should try to get down to 128, at least.”

“Everyone knows that there is nothing more important than a woman’s body weight. Success or failure in that department can determine whether or not the guy is going to stay in the relationship or bail.”

And everyone knows that 118 is the proper weight for any woman around 5’4”. Anything materially higher than that is fat, chunky, thick, big boned, or round. Period.

Wall Struck is no different. Things are getting out of control, and have now bordered on the psychotic. Never before have I witnessed so much intraday volatility and gaming based on miniscule changes in economic data points or the guidance of one company.

The most important data point coming is INTC’s revenue guidance. Where will it be? $6.8 billion to $7.1 billion? Or will it be $6.6 billion to $6.9 billion? Or how about $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion? Will the range tighten? Higher or lower?

Which range constitutes “growth”?

Which range is considered “mature” or “flat”?

Who cares? Unless INTC comes it at $8 billion, it is clear that the company is at best a 5% growth model. Is that worth paying 5x sales and 40x earnings? NO.

But to millions of gamers and HedgeHogs, I guess it doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is tape direction, and or which side of the boat is overloaded. Millions of speculators worldwide, buying or selling simultaneously. Nobody is making independent decisions. Everybody is watching what everyone else is doing.

Millions of hands on the mouse ready to click on “buy” or “sell” EVERYTHING, depending on which way the herd moves.

Billions of market cap is at stake, across 25 stock exchanges worldwide.

Junk Bond spreads are at stake.

The strength of the dollar is at stake.

Saddam Hussein’s future is at stake.

The entire future of the Global Economy is at stake.

The Supermodel Index being the leading indicator of the decline and fall of Western Civilization.

Never before has The Paper Pyramid been in such a fragile state. Any slight negative utterance from INTC could cause it to tumble. Any positive news could trigger euphoria immediately add 5 new layers of participants and make it even taller.

Just goes to prove how the Stock Market is the Economy. The Mania still lives. So many Pyramid Players transfixed on the SOX, and its oldest and grandest supermodel, Kathie Lee Gifford (INTC).

With so much in the balance, what happens if the Mania turns into a Panic?

I’m amazed at how may bullhorns and loudspeakers are blaring out there, talking about “compelling valuations”, etc. and so many no-name anal cysts supporting and propping HPQ and all the other “key stocks”. It never stops. Relentless. Every day.

Who is listening??

Joe Sixpack? No. He doesn’t even look at his statements, and he certainly doesn’t watch financial news to remind him that the Dow is now below 8000.

How about overseas investors? I doubt they really care. Now that the dollar is in freefall, they will be looking elsewhere. All they need is another push to get them to sell.

The only people listening are the daytraders, HedgeHogs, and Mutuals. The battle every 5-minutes to buy and sell, only be in stocks which are moving up. Losses are cut instantly, and traded for others which have the “nice charts”. They don’t really listen to the bullhorning, other than to use them as catalysts to see which way everyone else will be moving.

It’s all such a hysterical scene. So many gamers, trying to scalp their way to riches before the big recession hits. Get your $1 intraday move on EBAY and AMGN before they fall apart. Quick, watch out for those short squeezes. Grab ‘em fast for a 7% move. Stay on the side of the Program Robots. When will the next Program Buy hit?? Can’t take your eyes off the screen for more than 20 seconds, or you will miss it. AutoRefresh can’t work fast enough.

Every potential “waterfall” event turns into a massive short squeeze. Because every HedgeHog is now gaming for the next big move, up or down. So nothing happens, but the same old rattling around in the same trading range.

Note the increasing amount of desperation and concentration, measured by the Stock Packing Factor. Every fund manager is piling into EBAY. How high can it go? It could go to 200. If that move really gets going parabolic, there will be a buying panic. No different than QCOM in 1999. It could happen to any stock. EBAY happens to be “the one” right now. Why so much money piling in? Because no real money is leaving the market yet. Just the same rotation of musical chairs. Joe Sixpack is hanging on with a death grip.

And there is no end to all the gaming options. Speculation has gone completely mad. Anyone up for trading Saddam Hussein futures contracts?

From CBSMarketWatch:

“Recent U.S. diplomatic maneuvering and military action in the Mideast has led to rising trading volume in the online futures market that tracks Saddam Hussein's tenure as the head of Iraq. "Over the last 24 hours, the probability that he will be out of power, according to our traders, by the end of March has gone up by around 7 percent," said John Delaney, CEO of TradeSports Exchange in Dublin. The probability now stands at 28 percent, he said.”

Now, More Than Ever. The Speculative Intensity is accelerating. Giant home runs are being attempted by the Riverboaters, because they know the end is coming. Everyone groping for one last scalp. Everyone hoping to be on the right side of the trade, along with the Office of Plungeland Security, who is desperately checking chart failures 3 or 4 times a day. Everyone watching for a possible failure. Everyone thinking they will be the first ones out with a profit, before thing collapses or before another last upside explosion.

Notice how the VIX and VXN refuse to move. They could go anywhere, up or down....

Just one giant game of “chicken”.

Oh, by the way. Check out the photo. The Grand Matron of Weight Watchers. Has anybody ever thought she was thin enough?? No.
Just another overvaluation, struggling with hype and hope, attempting to "justify" the numbers.

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#2 merciless

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 04:42 PM

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWZZZZZZZZZZZAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA


gee, good to be back on land in the g'd ole U S of A-
man this S & P sure looks good huh?

bwahahaahahahahaahahahahahahahaahahahahahahahahaahhahahahaahaaa

how's the whole crew, everyone still here, i've been in Caribbean for three months and spent some time in Brazil for the Oba Oba, got back today and looked at my account- ready for this one boys and girls. I've been short 1 spooz this whole time from 930 or some such- bawahahahahahahahahha- gotta love that clerk on the Merc - he just kept rolling the winner!!!!

oh well- it'll take me awhile to catch up on 3 months of va cay reading on g'd ole M2M but it is good to be back.

BTW gang me and Lana made some purchasees in the Caribbean- bought 3 acres of virgin(yes pun intended) beach property with some of my cash, an dno i didn't bury any of my Krugs there so don't ask. But i ama gonna buy a nice boat and get a little place put up down there before the year is out- its even more tranquil than Sarasota, plus no tourist for miles.

Well I look forward to all your posts- i will be trying to catch up and get up to speed as fast as possible, but hey most here already know what I think about this pos market- just smoke em baby just smoke em. Bombs over Baghdad any day now so, i had to get back to command central - safety first you know- bwhahahahahahahaha


Lana baby, get the mesquite ready- unfurl the blankets sweetie its Pork sizzeling time - SUUUUUUEEEY .

PS mmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm jerk pork was sweeeeeeeeeeeetest in Jamiaca- no problem.


stay nimble stay focused and hey, smoke em"

so says i,

MERCILESS



stay

#3 wndysrf

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 04:52 PM

Merciless:

Welcome back, bro.......
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#4 GregFokker

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 04:57 PM

Missed you, Merciless!

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#5 Kid

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:18 PM

INTC getting slammed!!!! in afterhours

#6 K Wave Rider

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:18 PM

INitial INTC reaction down Hard $15.95

Dell Following


Welcome back Merciless, good timing. :grin:

#7 Direwolf

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:19 PM

INTC just dropped a turd....$100m-200m light in revenue...doh!

covered short scalp.....LMAO

dw

#8 flufflander

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:19 PM

Intc wacked. Merciless back. Tears coming to my eyes.

#9 sweefraapp

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:21 PM

Too much for me. I'll wait. Might miss tomorrow's fall, but no problem.
38.2% retrace on OEX.

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#10 PileDriver

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:24 PM

Great to have you back Merciless.

Just in time...

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#11 sweefraapp

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:25 PM

IBM down another .50.

#12 mjkst27

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:28 PM

Whoa, fellerz. Sox Bear over on PrudentBear's board saying all INTC did was narrow the revenue range: was 6.5-7B, now 6.6-6.8B. Anyone have a link?

#13 Kid

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:31 PM

Whoa, fellerz. Sox Bear over on PrudentBear's board saying all INTC did was narrow the revenue range: was 6.5-7B, now 6.6-6.8B. Anyone have a link?

Perhaps that's all they did, but the perception is sell!!! Now below 16!!

#14 Mr. Beal

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:31 PM

There's some ass kicking going on in AH and I don't mean stoolies.

#15 Ned38

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Posted 06 March 2003 - 05:31 PM

OK boys

Logging off and getting on the train

See ya's at Abigaels





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