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Program Robot Hysteria


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#16 coboy

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:24 PM

Since everybody is speculating;

Here is my SWAG :

There won't be any selloff anymore, all 10-9-8...whatever sigmas before were all GREAT buying opportunities.. This time everybody is assured almost daily by the Fed that THEY won't let it slide.. Who's gonna sell ?? Who's gonna left behind this time ?
Who didn't kick his head for selling or not buying after 911 ?

The only thing that can go wrong is, program robots may go ahead of themselves, in that case the curbs kick in anyway..

#17 The End

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:41 PM

Coboy,

Then go long.

If you think that the fed will prevent a decline at all costs, then go long.


Good luck to ya.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:45 PM

As long as everyone is giving their opinions on the market, here is mine:

The market requires buyers and sellers to operate. You will always have sellers as retirees have to take money out of IRAs etc.. However, buyers are a different story. For buyers to exist, someone has to put cash into equities. Since Jo sixpack has significantly slowed putting new money into the markets, the only buyers left are institutional(pension funds) and the gov't.

As the consumer continues to stop putting money into the market, pension and mutual funds have to buy additional equities just to get the market to stay even. There is a fine line where sentiment can shift and it doesn't take a lot of volume for a buyers strike to begin. The gov't can only interfere so many times.

All it takes is for a few institutions to want say that they want to get less exposure to the market. This makes more sellers, then all of the other institutions want to get out since they don't want their portfolio values to fall. As stock prices fall, pension funds have to sell more equity because they can't risk additional losses. Those losses come straight out of earnings. Those managers will get fired if they ride the market all the way down.

Only Joe sixpack will ride the market all the way down. He is too slow and emotionally attached and brainwashed by the media to the buy and hold strategy.

So we should all stay patient as there is no where for the market to go but down. It is just a matter of time. It is a matter of short and hold until the waterfall.

#19 PileDriver

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:48 PM

there's no need to speculate or gamble, the trend is your friend.

Its really not all that difficult to make money in the markets. No need for rocket science here. Just don't fight the trend. :lol:

Short shitty stocks in a bear market.
Dong quality stocks in a bull market.

Don't "think" too much, in fact don't "think" at all!

I'm up ~30% since Dec/Jan.

It's a no-branier dude!

Beware trying to outwit the market in the short-term, you'll only wind up outwitting yourself. Expect and learn to be humbled and "wrong" in the near-term, as long as the longer-term trend is going your way who cares.

#20 Dustbowl

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:59 PM

Coboy, I would rethink going long now. I sense you are just speaking out of frustration. Been there myself many times. Take a long walk, drink one of your favorite beverages, call a friend and offer to help them in some way. That feeling will pass. Hang in there. :)

#21 wndysrf

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 06:59 PM

Just checked the Intraday on most of the Dow stocks.

The rally was fake.

Chief Program Robot, operated by Al Green, basically pushed the Dow up with MMM, PG, and IBM getting the most action.

That's it.

Everything else was dead in the water.

Homebuilders got smoked again.

Tech was mixed. Some jammed, some fell hard.

Horrible breadth.
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#22 Hypertiger

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:02 PM

All of human reality is dictated by fractional reserve banking… The robots are in the same trap as the humans… Debt is fueling the fantasy and when the debt stops humans starve and robots are shut down… we are going nowhere… except down in a screaming fit of agony…

When? We have been for decades but nobody seems to notice even at this late stage, the “visible stage”. By the time that 100% proof shows up that it’s game over it will be game over… Too late...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#23 coboy

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:06 PM

Coboy,

Then go long.

If you think that the fed will prevent a decline at all costs, then go long.


Good luck to ya.


Well, I'll go long as soon as I arrange some funds..

Unfortunately, I was sold A.Crawford's doomsday weekend scenerio and cost me dearly..
Like Mark said countless times, bear case is not working right now..

I am not the issue here, I was a small potato anyway..

Am I the only one who remembers all that insane nonstop jamming during Afganistan war when any one of Bush, Rumsfeld, Powell or any general came on TV and boy they were on TV all day long..

Is this war gonna be any different ??

Isn't the low volatility telling us something ? Maybe it's not telling us that fear is low, maybe it's forecasting better times, doesn't market discount everything ?

Does anybody think they will let that liquidity bubble burst in the middle of all this geopolitical mess ? I don't think so..

What kind of sigma 10 are we talking about ? Nuclear attack ? Aren't we sure that they will put EVEN on that a bullish spin, so far sheeple are obliging, what would change ?

Maybe a very big dislocation in the society like prosecution of Bush & Co. as war criminals or something may trigger some selloff in my opinion..

Anyway, I'm just thinking out loud, ignore me..

#24 phatbubble

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:08 PM

if yo' ass think dat da damn fed will prevent some decline at all costs, den go long.


dair be no need t' speculate o' gamble, da trend be yo' homie.


da waterfall's comin', i kin feel da mist an' haih' da damn roah'. git short.

duzn't waste time. becuz dair be not much time t' waste.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#25 The End

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:14 PM

Coboy,

It sounds like your taking my response to you as a personal attack. :cry:

Do whatever you want. It's your money. I don't have a say and niether should anybody else on this board have a say in what you do or don't do with YOUR money.

We could all be wrong.

Do what you want.

One question though. If you where to go long, what would you go long. I don't see any leadership whatsoever. Again, JMHO.

Ooopps. One more question. How did Arch's call hurt you so badly. Are we not back down anyway?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#26 lucy

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:16 PM

On the beach, if you're still around, love your avatar!!! Can you tell me how to forward an attached image like that??? :huh:
lucy

#27 Old Habits

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:18 PM

Piles - i suppose INTC could cause a waterfall decline by Friday, either that or the famous "sigma 10" whatever that might be. (terrorism on our soil?) Otherwise, your drip, drip, drip, pop scenario seems more likely.

Bare - I luv ya man. BUT, this war is BARELY a contest, which is precisely why the world is so concerned. France stands to lose the most because of oil. This will go very smoothly and the French, especially Chirac, will look like the complete fools that they are.

Will any of this cause the market to rally? Maybe short term, then the focus becomes the economy again. Real estate is gonna dump, so where does the money go?

I think you guys are dead on, we continue lower, but I don't see a waterfall in the distance.

#28 The End

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:23 PM

Old Habits,

Where does the money go. Ask japan. IT WILL NOT GO BACK INTO STOCKS, after the next decline of 20% or so. IMHO.

The point of recognition is comming sonner then you think.

Can it be delayed by a few moments (define moments) yes, but, it is comming very soon.

Be well OH.

TE
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#29 flockofsheeples

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:24 PM

What, nobody buying munis? :P
http://story.news.ya...satoday/4918160

I live in WI, our new governor (after Tommy Thompson for 14 yrs.) just allowed the local tribe to add craps and roulette to try and make up for some of the 250 million $ deficit this year. Amazing what these guys are thinking. :blink:
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#30 wndysrf

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Posted 05 March 2003 - 07:25 PM

When the bombs start dropping, we will have a 200 point rally in the Dow, for two days in a row.

Then all the longs will be in, and there will be no more buyers.

After that, the waterfall starts.

There will not be any bad news to trigger it.

It will simply be a lack of new buyers.

Arena Participants will be shocked to see the markets drop so quickly without a catalyst.

I say INTC misses tomorrow night, gaps down Friday, but the dippers will show up and drive it back up.
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