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March Madness Failure?


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#16 BigWave

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:17 PM

Off topic- Is there a way to empty my hard drive?

I am donating my computor to a charity and want to empty all my files before presenting it to them.

Re-format the drive and it's done.

#17 flockofsheeples

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:27 PM

Announced lay offs should come out tomorrow morning. Should be interesting.

Bank of Tokyo Layoff Table

It looks as if there is a concerted effort to keep the Dow within striking distance of 8000.

Also, Michael O'higgins spoke about the markets in a Miami Herald article on Sunday. He expects a depression. Interesting Read.

Miami Herald/O'Higgins Article

Thursday, INTC puts out it's mid quarter report. Down 3.5% today. Amazing how Dan Niles signals a top in INTC. Everytime he is positive in INTC, it tanks.

Is the Miami Herald guy a Stoolie?? :huh:
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#18 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:28 PM

TE, don't you think a little more volume on the ndx would have made it a little more persuasive?

Price is everything.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#19 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:30 PM

Off topic- Is there a way to empty my hard drive?

I am donating my computor to a charity and want to empty all my files before presenting it to them.

Re-format the drive and it's done.

How do I do dat der thing? :wacko:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#20 flockofsheeples

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:33 PM

Off topic- Is there a way to empty my hard drive?

I am donating my computor to a charity and want to empty all my files before presenting it to them.

Re-format the drive and it's done.

How do I do dat der thing? :wacko:

TE-you should have gotten a recovery disc w/ the computer. Put it in and it will tell you what to do. Choose the option with the big WARNING that says you will lose everything on your hard drive.
I don't know why they call it hamburger helper...it seems to do just fine on its own-Uncle Eddie, "Family Vacation"

#21 wndysrf

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:38 PM

Yeah, its quite shocking how little selling volume is coming in when so many geopolitical bombs keep surfacing.

We need acceleration to the downside ASAP!!!

We should be at the October lows by now, with all this bad news floating around.

What's going to happen when some good news comes out? A 1000 point day to the upside??

Bears are scared.

And they should be.
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#22 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:39 PM

Tank you very much. :)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#23 Hypertiger

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:43 PM

The "cascading" bankruptcies will destroy the debt backed economy...

There won't be enough left of the economy to fill an ashtray...

Blatant organized crime will be the "New economy"

It will be decades before you will be able to catch the next wave...

The time to declare bankruptcy and wriggle free in a prudent and civilized way is beginning to slip away...

When wild cornered animal stage begins it won't be civilized or prudent...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#24 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:44 PM

I took the news over the weak-end as good and so did the maket for 50 minutes or so. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#25 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:50 PM

The "cascading" bankruptcies will destroy the debt backed economy...

There won't be enough left of the economy to fill an ashtray...

Blatant organized crime will be the "New economy"

It will be decades before you will be able to catch the next wave...

The time to declare bankruptcy and wriggle free in a prudent and civilized way is beginning to slip away...

When wild cornered animal stage begins it won't be civilized or prudent...

You are invited to my next birthday bash. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#26 wndysrf

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:55 PM

Interesting chart from Morenmore at ClearStation.

Three attempts by the NDX. Three failures.

NDX Weekly


Anyway, anybody see that candle on the DAX today?
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The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#27 3Martinis

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 06:59 PM

There won't be enough left of the economy to fill an ashtray...


HYPERTIGERS NEW BALLCAP......

Posted Image

GO GET'M TIGER !!!

*HIC* :D

#28 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 07:00 PM

wndysrf,

For da record, are you bullish or bearish? :blink:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#29 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 07:00 PM

Pee Brain...

You are not alone.

Consumption spending in L.A. is totally and completely out of control.  Everybody buying now, no worries about the future.

No fear, no anxieties, no question about future prosperity.

It will take a nuclear bomb landing in the front yard to get them to pause and reflect for a moment.

All these guys will simply file bankruptcy and start over. I have two major builders here in the S. Bay who are millionaires, and they all have been flat broke twice already.

Just BK, start over, latch on to the next boom.

Lenders are suckers.  They will loan to anybody, and quickly forget about the past.

Enjoy the MTV Free Ride as long as you can.

Builders are like boxers in that they rarely know when to stop building or get out of the ring.

If properties continue to deflate for a while it may not be so simple the next time.
The Japanese experience . . .

___The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Tuesday morning edition___Tuesday, March 4, 2003

DEFLATION: Landholdings Turn Out To Be 'Negative Assets'

TOKYO (Nikkei)--A 54-year-old man living in Tokyo was unsure until the last moment before deciding to sell most of the family's land assets. "I still wonder if I did the right thing," he said.

Related Stories:

ANALYSIS: Land-Backed Loans Aggravate Corp Buy/Sell Binge

Wealthy Households Hit Harder By Falling Land Prices: Govt Poll

A decade earlier his father, who owned several pieces of land in Tokyo, took out 2 billion yen in bank loans to build a condominium. The condominium construction was intended to make it easier for his family members to pay inheritance taxes.
Afterwards, however, creditor banks moved to take other pieces of land than the land used as the condominium site as additional collateral as the value of condominium had declined.
The aged father fell sick and his eldest son was pressed by the creditor banks to make a decision. Parting with land handed down to the family from generation to generation was a very hard decision for him to make, but if land prices were to keep falling he would be forced to lose his own house. Eventually he opted to sell most of the landholdings to repay all bank loans.

Thing of past

Takashi Hongo, a public tax accountant, says an increasing number of property holders come to him for consultation these days. Visitors ask such questions as how to cope with the growing vacancy rates for rental spaces in commercial buildings they own, or whether they should sell off country houses they have in resort areas.
The problem common to such visitors to Hongo and the Tokyo family is that they have a lot of real estate but are having a hard time repaying bank loans due to little gains from the property. "Deflation has made individual property owners (as well as business corporations) keenly feel the risk involved in owning land," said Hongo.
Now the time is gone when land prices steadily kept rising to generate profits. Many asset holders who never doubted the value of land are now feeling the pinch.
Last year, the city of Kisarazu in Chiba Prefecture was rocked by two land problems. First, the city marked the steepest year-on-year rate of decline in land prices in commercial areas around the train station for the third consecutive year. The second problem was that the Chiba district court issued an order to seize the salary of Katsutoshi Suda, the then mayor of Kisarazu.
Suda built his fortune through a land development business that was pushed forward with loans he gained by using land as collateral. His business, however, got bogged down soon after land prices tumbled. His borrowings swelled, and he failed to pay state and municipal taxes. In February last year he stepped down as mayor, and in September was arrested for allegedly embezzling funds due to be funneled to a landowner partnership.
According to a nationwide government survey on household spending in 1999, households in the highest income bracket, many of which own residential land lots, suffered a 30% drop -- the largest rate of decline in any household category -- in the value of household assets from five years earlier.
Asset deflation has influenced the payment of inheritance taxes. Takashi Onoda, mayor of Tokyo's Shinjuku Ward, left some 1 billion yen in arrears in inheritance tax payments because the value of inherited land sold fell short of the tax amounts due to falling land prices. Taking the blame for the trouble, he resigned from his post last autumn.
If anyone seeks to avert the heavy burdens of inheritance taxes, the only choice would be to pay them "in kind," transferring the landownership to the state.
In a quiet, residential area of Nishi-Azabu in Tokyo Minato Ward is a luxury condominium named Park House Nishi-Azabu, whose rooms were all sold for more than 100 million yen. The condo site was formerly owned by the Mitsui, the founding family of the now-defunct Mitsui "zaibatsu," or industrial conglomerate. When the head of the family died in 1992, the family submitted the vacated site to the state treasury in tax payments by 1994, and Mitsubishi Estate Co. (8802) won a bid for the land and built on the property.
During the two years until the tax payment in kind was completed in 1994, the land price used to calculate inheritance taxes around the Nishi-Azabu district dropped by half. So, if the Mitsui family had opted to pay the taxes by selling the land, the proceeds from the sale would have stopped short of the tax amount.

. . . etc.

Real estate comprises three-quarters of the country's household assets. The challenge landowners face is to make effective use of landholdings and gain profits that more than offset the costs involved. Only those who conceive of feasible ideas of realizing the goal can thrive.


Corporate Profiles:
Sanko Soflan Co., Inc.(1729)
Mitsui Fudosan Co., Ltd.(8801)
Mitsubishi Estate Co., Ltd.(8802)

#30 The End

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Posted 03 March 2003 - 07:07 PM

A conversation with Zoran about Today.


Chris,

The problem with the drop from Friday week is that it came down as a
zigzag.
That was not impulsive sending signals that something else was occurring.
That fact was sealed when the recovery exceeded 61.8%.

There are two alternatives as a result of that cahnge of events,
The first is with the additional swing that a TRINAGLE is forming as was
seen by some members of this list.
The second alternative that the drop down last week was WAVE-4 (T4) of
the TERMINAL and that this FIFTH WAVE of that TERMINAL finished today.

From a trading point of view it does not matter much if it is a
TRIANGLE or a TERMINAL.
The initial implications are the same
I prefer a TERMINAL "C" wave because it fit the larger patterns better
and it is a TYPICAL WAVE TWO conclusion.
It also sits well in the scenario painted two weeks ago whoich was
based on longer term ruling charts.

If the TERMINAL concluded today (and I expect it has), the S&P is at the
start of of wave three the most volatile of Elliott's moves and also
where panic phases are apt to occur.
As with all Elliott analysis, the prognosis should fit 5th Wave TERMINA,
as events unfold.

The expectation here is for a fast down move.
If it does not occur then the circumstances have changed or the
interpretation is wrong.
The move down from here SHOULD NOT RECOVER MORE THAN 61.8%.
If it does, then the TERMINAL is wrong and a more complex TRIANGLE is
forming.

There is of course the unlikely possibility that a reversal is forming.
That scenario will be eliminated with a definate break.
I have learned a long time ago one must be prepared for all
eventualities and always examine "what if" possibilities..


Zoran




chris whittington wrote:

>As someone struggling with EW analysis, and also following the S&P today, it
>looks to me as if:
>
>i) S&P tried to breach the 853 barrier, failed, bounced off and fell through
>the triangle support at 845, decisively breaching it. The next support is on
>the triangle (Zoran's B and D line) at about 826. I guess the S&P will
>breach this tomorrow.
>
>ii) Zoran might move his [C} to the [E] marked on the 2-3-2003 chart, or
>else he'll carry on calling this a triangle A,B,C,D,E, with E as the
>bifurcation point, and mark it as (2).
>
>iii) All implies we are now back in downwave 3 of 3 of 3 (the panic wave
>Zoran described last week), with a target of 785 (I think).
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters





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