Getting Closer To My Masterwork
75 replies to this topic
Posted 27 February 2003 - 04:47 PM
Masterwork of crap
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...
Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:02 PM
Not that it will change anything, but do you think we will see a mad dash by the lemmings to buy housing once mortgage rates tick up a bit? A "last chance saloon" type deal? Buy now or forever regret your life for not buying a mcmansion when rates were so low!
Just before they bulldoze the mcmansion over the cliff
Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:55 PM
Only if rates were to start rising tommorrow morning. The problem is there is a foot race going on by banks beginning to deal with defaults (mortgage credit standard tightening at the margins, first uptick recorded since 1988 just occurred) and rising unemployment, regadless of the totally false govt. statisitcs. Secondly the lemmings are pouring money into bond (12 billion+ inflow in January) funds as opposed to equity funds. Sorry Doc but it hasn't been 401 money inflow supporting the equity markets. Wrong diagnosis. (January outflows of 474 million and estimates for February are 12 billion+ outflow). It is entirely feasible that you would see mortgage rates rise as the bonds backing them are increasingly called into question while treasuries fall in a safety bid....for a while at least. In the short to intermediate term though, mortgage rates will likley track treasuries. In other words by the time mortgage rates start rising significantly there will be few if any qualified buyers who haven't already bought. If you look at Doc's mortgage charts you can clearly see we already have a solid downtrend in purchase applications in spite of the lowest rates in 40 years
You might also want to take note that both median and average home prices are slipping meaning re-fis are going to get tougher regardless of rates.
Of course this will never happen in Southern California or in Fartpolios gated community.
Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:30 PM
If house prices are going up, probably so. I contracted to buy a house in Aug. 1980. House prices were roaring, but after bottoming in March 1980, so were interest rates. Mortgages were ticking up from 9% to 10% to 11%, as the Fed cranked Fed funds higher by half a point every 2 or 3 weeks. Several colleagues at work were frantically scrambling to get on board the "Housing Inflation Express" before the fare was raised again, while cursing the ball-busting bastard Volcker as he mercilessly tightened the screws. (Uncle Al is a pussycat by comparison.)
I ended up with a 12.5% mortgage, adjusted to a T-note index every 3 years. It now bears interest at a crushing ... 4.5%!
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
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"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
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[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:28 PM
Hypertiger.. I just want to say thanks for your dedication to a cause you believe in.
That cause is to warn as many people as possible of the fact that you see a systematic collapse of the United States economic system within the next 24 months. (correct me if I am wrong)
I did get the opportunity to talk to you on the phone and would like to give my take..
Do you guys and gals remember the twilight zone episode when the gentleman was on an airplane flight and he looked out the window to the airplanes wing to see the most terrifying thing..
An alien looking monster was smashing the wing with what looked like an axe or a pipe of some sort.
He alerted the flight crew and thinking he was crazy, they sedated/tied him up. (assuming he was nuts)
When the plane landed they service crew found the wing was smashed to pieces and had no way to explain the damage.
The one everyone thought was crazy reminds me of Hypertiger..
Nobody likes to hear predictions of gloom.. no matter how well founded they may be!
Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:45 PM
That is a great parallel to Hyper crying out in the wilderness, but it isn't the whole story. The passenger saw this gorilla out on the wing, tearing it to shreds, and obviously trying to make the plane crash. So, when the passenger can't get anyone to listen to him, he smashes the window and goes out to fight the creature. He knocks it off (I think he actually has a gun and shoots it -- so much for THAT episode looking plausible to today's kids), is dragged back in by the flight attendants who of course don't believe him and he is carted off to the loony bin -- his reward for saving the flight from crashing. Then indeed the mechanics puzzle over why the hatch to the engine is missing, etc.
The mere fact that the whole thing is impossible from a scientific standpoint (no way you can have wingwalkers on modern airplanes traveling at high speed at high altitudes), nor could you break a window without serious complications for the plane) pales in comparison to the truly bizarre fact about that episode.....
The lead actor was none other than William Shatner!
Of course I'm caustic!
Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:51 PM
I'll stop lurking here for a moment. That was a very good and well informing post to those that don't have a clue? I must commend you for your efforts!!! I would add something here, but you seem to have it covered...Bubble bubble, we are brewing trouble!
Posted 27 February 2003 - 09:06 PM
HyperTiger...... ON FIRE !!
Dat's a helluva peice Sir.
My Hat is off *hic*.
Posted 27 February 2003 - 09:13 PM
OK. . . OK. . .. So . . .OK.. . .so that means that in 35 years Hyper is going to be selling cheap airline tickets on the telly for some internet ticket auctioneer! Right? It does all make sense now!
Seriously, Hyper you are something. As always you walk us right through the whole game down to the checkmate.
Posted 27 February 2003 - 10:02 PM
SG posted up his Deflation issues thread last night, and basically Hyper Tiger just slam dunked it...
The reason we havent collapsed big time yet is because credit is still easy... but as I also stated... subtle changes are afoot....
Nice work H.T.... you are gifted, and yes...I understand everything you wrote... and its all spot on... and when it hits... ee gads.
Posted 28 February 2003 - 01:23 AM
Banks have debt on the books that they know is bad -- both commercial and consumer. They won't write it off. Government supports hiding bad debt because if they force banks to fess up then the banks stop tossing the good money (lol) after the bad (debt) Result = more people dine at the soup kitchen.
It's like a slow motion train wreck. While the Fed struggles to control the crash Stoolies sit here in awe amazed at how long it is taking for the crushing end. Do I have time to jump the train?
Lol, I think I need to bookmark Hypertigers post and read it a couple of paragraphs a day. I'm slow, but I'll get it. The charts help a lot, a lot.
Posted 28 February 2003 - 12:23 PM
A portion of one of the 'Simpsons' Halloween Specials' had a similar storyline-Bart sees a gremlin on the side of his schoolbus, unscrewing the bolts that hold the tire in place.
Posted 28 February 2003 - 01:04 PM
yes, buyers on the fence will take action. but, sellers that have been holding off selling, will add supply quickly to the market. prices on homes already listed will be dropped (after the initial jump in sales) as sellers will be afraid of not getting out and having to ride another cycle.
so after the initial surge in activity, the uptick in interest rates will "flip" psychology and it will be time to get out while the getting is supposedly good.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
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