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#31 simple guy

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:20 PM

SIMPLE GUY WAVES THREAD

Tonight, discusses the terrorism alert drop and what it means... and basically... agreeing with Mark in so many words...

Found HereSimple Guy Waves Thursday night discussion thread

#32 BAREister

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:28 PM

Has there EVER been a sharp market decline with this high a short interest?

What are the COMMERCIALS doing, please?

Anyone know?

It's obvious what they're after tomorrow: anUDDER higher weekly close.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#33

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:33 PM

I think NOVL just cut one loose.

#34

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:33 PM

S&P 500

Commercials net SHORT 58,000 contracts

Large speculators net SHORT 6,373 contracts

Small speculators net LONG 64,373 contracts

#35 Stoolander

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:37 PM

Bollinger is a crock.

He lives in my neighborhood, and I run into him occasionally at the coffee shop.

He looks like a used car or home appliance salesman.

What an idiot.

Just another Bullhorner, a perennial cheerleader for Crapvision.

Truly a disgrace.

What amazes me is that a guy could build a reputation based on naming the drawing of standard deviations on a price chart. <_<

#36 The brown one

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:38 PM

Funny that OEX p/c ratio has dropped so dramatically.

Seems like everyone is getting bullish for the war.

#37 machinehead

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:44 PM

Bollinger is a crock.

He lives in my neighborhood, and I run into him occasionally at the coffee shop.

He looks like a used car or home appliance salesman.

He used to be a movie cameraman before becoming a market seer.

Probably general interest stuff though ... not bukkake films. But you never know!
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#38 BigWave

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:48 PM

Bollinger is a crock.

He lives in my neighborhood, and I run into him occasionally at the coffee shop.

He looks like a used car or home appliance salesman.

Next time I see him, I'll corner him, and I'll whip out one of my Gold Eagles which I now carry constantly in my pocket.

I'll tell him that the Bollinger Bands on the Paper Pyramid are tightening, and that doubling the amount of credit and 12 rate cuts has only eeked out a 1% increase in GDP.

I'll tell him that I'll sell him all the stock he wants to buy, and I'll buy all of his wife's jewerly today at the spot price.

I'll tell him that one day his wife will reach the Wild Cornered Animal Stage when the Paper Pyramid collapses and she can no longer buy any more Gucci Bags because Crapvision has been replaced with re-runs of the California Gold Rush from the History Channel.

What an idiot.

Just another Bullhorner, a perennial cheerleader for Crapvision.

Truly a disgrace.

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

#39 The End

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:50 PM

Machine,

I did save it. In print form.

I checkeed the archives on stool for a half hour last week and coudn't find it. I think it's in the board just prior to this one.

If you can't find it, I'll type it for our new stoolies.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#40 BAREister

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:54 PM

The two of you (SG and Wyndy) are, pretty much echoing what HRFF hASS suspected FUR some time: There's a cabal to keep the market at right about these levels, meaning DJIA 8000 and NASTY 1000.

The BARE still suspects we are in a huge stair-step down, controlled descent, but one designed to discourage shorts and bears, panic them periodically, shake them out of trading altogether, and slowly edge the market back up, ass they are trying now, in the face of looming war to prevent all-out panic, maybe, if they're lucky, even get a war rally going once it starts.

But there's no real rally sans volume and sans volume we have been and sans volume we will remain. (See remarx re the gullible vs the scared below.)

CrawFURd doesn't think the market will react positively to the advent of war - he thinks things will go....well....HAYWIRE, and needless to say, so, too, does HRFF.

Perry Leopold for you chartheads has his "inverse groundhog" chart up over on Crystal Ball where he moderates - this market has been the mirror image of pricing from roughly Jan 1 2000 through Feb of 2002 - he's flipped that upside down? or sideways? and superimposed against it recent pricing behavior. ANYway, there's a huge spike due if the mirror image is to continue to hold coming up soon. An UPward spike, so there's now a lot of chatter about "turn dates" over there and when, in March they'll fall. The BARE finds this whole notion while interesting as an artifact somewhat silly, as he does quasi-messianic expectations of "turn" dates looming in either early or mid? or is it now late Mar?. We were supposed to have had one circa the 21st FUR ex. that was yapped about FUR weeks in advance. Turned out to be a dud, pretty much.

The BARE still finds the notion of a meaningful rally BEFUR the start of war a ridiculous notion, sans that FUR-letter word that certain people here don't like that much, namely, NEWS. It might happen just FUR the reason (that it's so ridiculous a possibility without major news), butt he doubts it. That type of rally, sans news would take FUR too many gullible souls to sustain and even WITH news it won't overcome the secular trend. Souls aren't gullible any more - they're scared - countless legions of them are scared. Which, really, probably, is SG's point re "mood", writ large.

Therein lies the bulls' dilemna. The best they PROBABLY can do is shore it up, jam whilst they can to panic shorts out - or discourage 'em as you two guys are, clearly, getting and hope FUR that the economy begins to cooperate.

It won't.

Doc says his signals, ST are mixed. EWavers say the ST EWave stuff is hard to get a read on.

HRFF has been reading some simply superb TA work on Cramer's website hinthinthint that suggests, cogently, that we didn't/haven't yet plunge(d) to levels sufficient to permit a real rally - that, ass HRFF hASS noted many? X beFUR in this bear - the bulls impatiently want too much, too soon and will, probably, yet again, pay a huge price, literally FUR that impatience.

This market requires patience. It might be a bottom as so many are HOPING on the bullish side. HRFF will, of course, eat his FUR hat if that happens.

Butt that notion of patience brings back to mind (or what's LEFT of it) the FURmer Saudi Ambassador's quote this morning on The Idiot Channel: "Hope is a welcome/good companion butt a poor guide."

Who's hoping more, now, shorts or bulls?

Probably bulls. If bears start hoping ass much ass bulls, well, then it's time to be careful. But bears have a huge edge, pyschologically, over bulls. They know what endless weeks and months of frustration are like having lived through it FUR years. Bulls have no conception of that, being behaviorially conditioned linearly and accomodated until a (pardon the expression) "short" while ago, to instant gratification. Which is why they repeatedly try to resurrect the averages when letting them consolidate or drop further would, really, be in their better interest.

SG and Wyndy? seem to think it will take the little guy to move this market.

The BARE isn't so sure. He thinks a LOT of big boyz are sitting on their thumbs waiting for clearer signals - a LOT of institutions.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#41 The End

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:55 PM

Bollinger is a crock.

He lives in my neighborhood, and I run into him occasionally at the coffee shop.

He looks like a used car or home appliance salesman.

Next time I see him, I'll corner him, and I'll whip out one of my Gold Eagles which I now carry constantly in my pocket.

I'll tell him that the Bollinger Bands on the Paper Pyramid are tightening, and that doubling the amount of credit and 12 rate cuts has only eeked out a 1% increase in GDP.

I'll tell him that I'll sell him all the stock he wants to buy, and I'll buy all of his wife's jewerly today at the spot price.

I'll tell him that one day his wife will reach the Wild Cornered Animal Stage when the Paper Pyramid collapses and she can no longer buy any more Gucci Bags because Crapvision has been replaced with re-runs of the California Gold Rush from the History Channel.

What an idiot.

Just another Bullhorner, a perennial cheerleader for Crapvision.

Truly a disgrace.

Now THAT is the Wndy that I came to appreciate. :grin:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#42 Drano

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 07:57 PM

I guess I will go long term buy and hold then

I actually laughed out loud at that one.
Of course I'm caustic!

#43

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:04 PM

Best case for the bulls is Saddam and all his relatives who control the secret police etc. are taken out by special forces or rivals, or they voluntarily flee the country. A new U.S. friendly regime peacefully takes over and pumps cheap oil, the troops all come home and buy more new homes and SUV's and the economy booms. The odds of this are so low it is not worth betting on.

Worst case for bulls is war goes badly, chemical/biological/nuclear weapons kill many thousands of U.S. troops over there and civilians over here and general panic ensues, hostages and blackmail used to thwart U.S. while North Korea swarms over the DMZ and China seizes Taiwan. Massive terrorist strikes hit the U.S. homeland. This is possible but also unlikely.

Expected case is the Saddamites fight to the bitter end, lose, but create much fear uncertainty and doubt in the meantime which pops the bulls bubble of expecting a quick and easy war rally, so the market careens lower and the public remains way too scared to buy. It will not be quick and easy because unlike running the Iraqis out of Kuwait via an on-the-run target shoot, this time they are dug in at home among civilians and underground and it will take a long time to get them to surrender, they are not just surrendering an already raped/pillaged/looted country and running home with their loot, this time they are surrendering their home and their power and probably their lives. George W. and company, and the powers that be, have been planning this for a year and a half, and will spare no expense to conquer Iraq, and they will. But it will be very, very messy and dirty.

Until it is over (October?) all rallies caused by panicked shorts getting goosed will be selling opportunities until the Commercials have blown out most of the Small Speculator longs, and have covered their short positions at much lower prices than today.

When the housing bubble bursts those who were clever enough to profit from it and get out with lots of money will not be putting that money back into real estate, nor bonds.....they will be putting into selected commodities but MOSTLY back into stocks, which are much easier to manipulate higher to make money, especially once most of the public has been flushed out. There are already too many people focusing on being short, but the bear market is not over yet, it is just nearing its end. The Dow will bottom somewhere around 6500.

#44 brian4

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:07 PM

Look Folks today was a nothing day-yesterday we dropped a 102 today we retraced 78. The END is right we are completing the TRIANGLE-we WILL have the SELLOFF we all want. The Commercials are ass deep short and we will cover at the bottom when they do. On a bland day like today the hedge funds do their thing but it changes nothing. As for SoDUMB he is just playing chess well Bushie and the U.N. continue to play checkers. Iraq is cast in stone-will Bushie attack-YUP-will SoDumb destroy his missiles-YUP (but only the ones that don't work). Will there be a war rally-NO-watch the markets implode when the first shot is fired-this puppy is ready to go taking it's time circling the drain but down the drain it will go. California's deficit now 35 Billion and fitch and moodys downgraded them to dead last among the 50 states-New Yawk is just above them-the federal deficit will clock in at an all time record this year-market rally-I think NOT! Trade Safe!

#45 Tchaikofsky

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 08:14 PM

Machine,

I did save it. In print form.

I checkeed the archives on stool for a half hour last week and coudn't find it. I think it's in the board just prior to this one.

If you can't find it, I'll type it for our new stoolies.

The end Feb 20 2003, 05:28 PM

The SWUP (capitalstool and the Bearish Beat) Tanks machinehead.


I wanna tell you "bout Capitalstool and the bearish beat
I comes out of the Florida swamps
Cool and slow with plenty of precision
And a cycle narrow and hard to master

Some call it heavenly in it's brilliance
Other, mean and ruthfull of the bullish dream

I love the freinds stool has gathered together on this thin raft
We have constructed pyramids in honor of our escaping
This is the land where the poodits lied

The brokers in the forest, brightly feathered
They are saying, forget the slide
Invest with us in forests of azure
Out here on the perimeter there are no sells
Out here we is stoned- immaculate


 There is more. I just don't feel like typing.  :grin:  







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