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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 02:55 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – February 27, 2003

Today’s commentary will be brief, since I won’t be in the office much today.

As usual, the constant spinning and jamming of earnings releases continues. Tonight, NVLS will be reporting. NVLS is one of the three most important stocks in the world. Because the entire Dow Jones Global Stock Index is keyed off of its movement.

The fate of the U.S. Dollar.

The fate of the “V-shaped 2nd half recovery”

The fate of all other countries who rely on the U.S. consumer.

The fate of Paper Pyramid.

The fate of the Chain Letter.

The fate of the general social mood.

The fate of Saddam Hussein.

The fate of every hoper, clinging to his tech stocks.

It seems that the economic fate of the entire planet is dependent on whether NVLS moves up 5% tomorrow or down 5% tomorrow.

Here is my prediction:

“NVLS rose 5% in after hours trading after the company beat estimates by a penny. Profits rose to 8 cents a share, compared to 7 cents polled by Multex, First Call, Briefing.com, CBS Marketwatch, TheStreet.com, Morningstar, the SEMI Association, and all other Bullhorners. Revenues were flat, which were in-line with estimates. Pro-forma earnings for next quarter were raised to 10 cents, excluding layoff charges, but including the gains on stock options and pension plan contributions.”

Translation:

The desireability quotient of Catherine Zeta Jones rose 5% in After Hours at the Oscars party after she said that the number of cellulite pockets on her 4th quarter hip lessened from 8 dimples to 7 dimples per square inch. The number of dimples were in-line with the average estimate of onlookers polled by Multex and Thomson First Call. Despite the increase in cellulite and overall body weight, her Pro-Forma breast size increased from 34C to 36C, including one-time gains from WonderBra support, excluding restructuring charges from the plastic surgeon.


Really not much else to report. Seems like the spiking and jamming continues on a daily basis, as tech stocks are adored and gold and silver investments are shunned. The dollar was heavily jammed in the overnights. Never before have I seen such blatant life support operations attached to the Paper Pyramid.

As repeated, we will not see any real selling until the Geopolitical Shocker hits or when Joe Sixpack is finally gets a catalyst to sell.

Right now, $40 oil is no concern to anybody.

Why is that?

Because the Perpetual Motion Liquidity Machine can continue to multiply debt into money, as DiTech mortgages are round tripped inside the Atomic Particle Accelerator at Hyperspeed. Too many HedgeHogs are shorting the market, as evidenced by the astounding short interest reported in The Wall Struck Journal today.

There is simply no way for these shorts to be able to overpower the Matrix unless a selling catalyst emerges.

For now, the trillions of dollars inside the mutual fund complex that refuses to exit the fire escape at The Station remains in the Arena to be gamed incessantly by the HedgeHogs. In the meantime, the mortgage bubble is creating even more Keno Chips which are constantly Repo Blasted into the trading pits at regular intervals to keep the action going. Who can resist leaving the Casino when 300 point moves in the Dow come out of nowhere? Best to maintain a lifetime career, glued to a computer screen all day, watching Level II futures trading, and wait for the inevitable Program Robot Buying. How dehumanizing.

Just another example of the Service Economy. The leading economy of the free world. A world of pointers and clickers within the Paper Pyramid, all attempting to get rich on the next “surprise” 20 minute move to the upside.
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk

The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!

#2 Guest_jrmfl_*

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:30 PM

short interest new high... bummer.

#3 lb

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:36 PM

watching AMAT AH looks like NVLS is tripping.

#4 Yaryman

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:38 PM

You can't make this stuff up.

"Firm's morning note indicates that it does not anticipate disappointment from the call; firm
expects NVLS to at least confirm the original guidance of $0.07 (First Call consensus $0.08, Multex $0.07).
Fulcrum reiterated its Buy rating and 12-month target of $45, noting that NVLS is trading
near its previous trough levels from 1996, 1998, and 2002 (on a price-to tangible book basis)."

Price to tangible book basis?

I guess nobody uses that old standby Price to Sales.

#5 PileDriver

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:39 PM

So lets recap this bag of feces

1) extremely low equity p/c ratio & VIX
2) PMs down since Dec 1, look ready to blast upward (yes, emotionally this is hard to believe, poor Charmin)
3) NYSE only up .85%
4) wicked high tick jam job did dick to raise market
5) most of my pieces of pure dung went no where. Some went down!
6) today is 2/27 Fib date expected high
7) cycles still heading on down to the south side
8) neither overbought nor Dover Sole.
9) still coming off a major orgy high set in Dec
10) bearish wave counts
11) no follow through
12) no buyers
13) no volume!

I could go on but I'm lazy :lol:

Do you feel lucky Bully?

#6 Drano

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:41 PM

watching AMAT AH looks like NVLS is tripping.

Uh.... tripping like: it's falling over its own feet?

or tripping like: oh wow man, look at the moon -- rad...... :lol:

EDIT: NVLS down twenty cents right now at 4:50 Eastern time.
Of course I'm caustic!

#7 sweefraapp

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 05:51 PM

2. Bearish bets were also on the rise on Novellus Systems (Nasdaq: NVLS). The stock saw put open interest at its March 30 put jump from 5,057 to 9,682 contracts overnight, resulting in an SOIR of 0.89. This reading is higher than 74 percent of those taken over the past 52 weeks. In addition, short interest for NVLS rose 4.72 percent over the past month to 20.3 million shares. Brokerage firms are straddling the fence on this stock, with 12 strategists rating it a "buy" or better and 12 rating it a "hold." Technically speaking, NVLS is facing overhead resistance in the form of its 10-week moving average.

here

#8 BigWave

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:08 PM

You can't make this stuff up.

"Firm's morning note indicates that it does not anticipate disappointment from the call; firm
expects NVLS to at least confirm the original guidance of $0.07 (First Call consensus $0.08, Multex $0.07).
Fulcrum reiterated its Buy rating and 12-month target of $45, noting that NVLS is trading
near its previous trough levels from 1996, 1998, and 2002 (on a price-to tangible book basis)."

Price to tangible book basis?

I guess nobody uses that old standby Price to Sales.

We use P/S only when it meets our scam target...If not, we find another metric that supports our scam target...If we can't find another metric that works, we make up a metric that supports our scam target...

What a bunch of bullsh*t..

#9 Sphinxter

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:16 PM

"Markets rallied sharply today on news that housing starts enjoyed one of the largest month over month de-increases and exceptionally strong unemployment claims"

"Gold, meanwhile, was hurt by a sharply rising commodity index and US diplomatic statements that confirmed the US's clear intention of going to war regardless of findings or support"

Yep. it all makes sense to me. The 10:00 on the dot rally-bounce was priceless.

Another great one Mark, particularly the CZJones translation. Perfect.

#10 Hypertiger

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:17 PM

Posted Image

Note how the Trillion dollar boxes get smaller at the top right?

the mortgage bubble is creating even more Keno Chips which are constantly Repo Blasted into the trading pits at regular intervals to keep the action going.

To continue the above indefinitely those boxes have to get smaller indefinitely...

Note that the little squiggle at the top only equals about 500 billion... The boxes are getting bigger... or the end is near...

The whole sickening details on LOB...

Will it make you money tomorrow? Doubt it... but if you think things are bad now just wait once they realize that it took the elimination of 1700+ basis points to get here and we only have 124 left...
"We are completely dependant on the commercial banks. Someone has to borrow every dollar we have in circulation, cash or credit. If the banks create ample synthetic money (at the request of the consumer) we are prosperous; if not, we starve. We are absolutely without a permanent money system.... It is the most important subject intelligent persons can investigate and reflect upon. It is so important that our present civilization may collapse unless it becomes widely understood and the defects remedied very soon." --Robert H. Hemphill, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank,1938...

#11 lb

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:21 PM

Hummm tripping or tripping. The CEO never trips but he sounds like a trip. Nothing has happened AH. Sure no face falling anyway. What a trip. Trippy market. Trippy day. I’m tripped out.

Mark said it on IDS and many times before. No fun to trade against your own Gov. May be run by asses but they got no bottom.

#12 longOnUranus

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:25 PM

When are they (the public) gonna learn? These jockeys are salesmen. Discounting their wares is the last choice. Pump the product, expose a little more cleavage on the supermods, wave the flag over the consumer/homebuyer. I see auto dealer ads in the Sunday paper which are more believable than these shills...

I totally hate rodeo, but I heard a local sports/radio personality interviewing the Jack Nicklaus (retired) of bull riding the other day (forgot his name). He went into detail about how the best bulls are bred tougher, and exclusively, for bull riding these days. This came as a result of better trained riders who easily acheived mastery of the average bull, as audiences became disinterested.

Now I don't use the bull metaphor to exclude bears, 'cause this really applies to both. As the gamers get better at TA, gaming the market, etc, THE MARKET, through its inbred, genetic survivial mechanisms, will develop stronger, meaner bulls as the market gets harder to trade. Days like today, weeks like this week, months like the last 2 months, will become commonplace. No one will get the resolution they desire in this market until the animal has convinced all the buckaroos int he ring that its unridable.

I know my frustration is shared by many stoolies, who bemoan the fact that bulls haven't sold. A similar condition for bears must occur for an equilibrium to be reached, from which the market will do it's thing. This equilibrium is a lot, I think, of what Oyster is talking about.

As I do a reality check on my psyche tonite, I may decide the next act should be observed ringside, instead of crotch deep on a bulls back (were I to be lucky enough to get that far).

Thanks again, Mark. You've nailed it cold.

#13 The End

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:28 PM

We ar completing the triangle. It will take a little more time. i continue to short more into strenght.

Don't pay ANY attention to me, I reside in a mental institution, My roomate is Jim morrison. :blink:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#14 chibear

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:32 PM

What a snoozer.

Even the news seems self-conciously bland as we head toward the (inevitable?) war.

QLGC and KLAC are good day traders if you treat 'em like a commodity market.


ScrappleFace reports:

"Blix Orders Iraq to Destroy Human Shields"

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 06:34 PM

Iraq agrees to destroy missiles.
http://quote.bloombe...l6MdhYqSXJhcSBB

Does anybody know this came out during or after market? If after it could set up some crazy gap up tomorrow. Quote SG: "i could be wrong, hehe" :D





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