The Swap Meet
128 replies to this topic
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:34 PM
France sees US "Empire" in decline... (Article from New Zealand press)
FRANCE’S "NON" ON IRAQ IS THE FIRST OF MANY IN THE FUTURE
There ya go H.T.... have fun.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:38 PM
I know a place where you can get new teeth for zero interest,zero down,and zero payments for 2 years.Wow, you managed to insult me, my half-brother and my step-mother all in one article. Am i supposed to say, thank you, or something?
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:44 PM
HRFF finds the whole notion of rallying pretty idiotic. At least with war looming.
We'd ALREADY be in the middle of one, NOW, he suspects.
Fleck never GOT his February rally, really, now, DID he???
Wyndy throws in his towel.
AGES ago, HRFF said he steaks out positions and hangs on FUR dear life.
Doc describes that as "nervejangling".
Can be, butt HRFF will wager that Wyndy's capitulatin' at the time when the mkt is demonstrating there are limits to upside machinations.
It's rather redolent of misbehaving 12 year olds, who, wanting to be bad, just FUR the sheer cussedness of it, find ways to pull wool over their parents' eyes repeatedly, until they're too clever by half, and get caught, and punished as much for the deception as the errant behavior sussed out.
Did Da Boyz think they could get away with jamjobs indefinitely? Did/do they think they can hold off the secular trend indefinitely?
Or is this some REAR-guard ™ action to prop it up until war arrives when IT can take the rap FUR their errors/missteps?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:44 PM
I say we have a massive rally, and also a crash. I know I'm right, but I can't say anything about the timing and which way which turn time will go. Ad nuaseum...
I'm tired of chicken sh** prognostications, wrapped in innuendo, masquerading as expertise. I know Newman, Ord, etc. know much more than I, but lately they've all been flipping the coin.
If you take either side, at some point this year, you'll probably be right. The only question is at what level the market will descend/ascend.
Shorted more SPX at noon, made back yesterday's loss x 2. Will go flat into the wekend, so I'm looking for an exit point tommorrow or Friday. This market IS untradable, but that does not mean one can't have positions. Just need to hold 'em for a little while longer than you normallly would. And have some degree of conviction regarding your trades.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:50 PM
TOOT, TOOT...aaaall aboard!
Last stop: "Orgy High"
Time: Dec 2, 2002 (and mid Jan 03)
Next stop: "Panic Low"
I got my boarding pass back at "Orgy High" and I'm not getting off until the next stop.
Wake me up when we get there.
This rapids ride down to the waterfall is actually kinda fun.
Can you hear the roar in the distance? I can
Posted 26 February 2003 - 06:57 PM
Was this why the market was soft....
Secretary of State Colin Powell (news - web sites) attended the ceremony and told reporters while en route home Tuesday that the United States was playing close heed to the North's nuclear activities.
He said the North had not restarted either its nuclear reactor or its reprocessing facility. "I think that's a wise choice if it's a conscious choice," Powell said.
The administration learned Wednesday morning that the reactor had been reactivated, said the U.S. officials, asking not to be identified.
For the whole article, ....
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:09 PM
Just found out my property taxes are going up another 17%.last year they went up 28%,and 20% in 2001.
I'm gonna puke.
Called my parents for some sympathy,they told me their house just got re-assessed from 230k to 480k,their taxes just doubled instantly and my father retired 4 weeks ago.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:09 PM
And not only that, in a break from the classic protection racketeers who put drag on margins this is an industry who’s muscle is provided by the tax payer. Ohh. I mean the customer whether she’s paying taxes or working the swamp meat circuit in her Land Cruiser.
Lest we forget about the vested interests of our accomplices in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia with their own mouths to feed and investments to protect. It was telling to hear the announcement out of SA after the market close. Apparently they’ll blow out their quotas and make up for any Iraqi shortfall caused by the war.
Who needs thugs when you’ve got the bully pulpit and the greatest war mahcine of all time shrilling like the fly in the web 'help me' 'help me'.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:16 PM
as problems go, thats not a bad one.
as an aside, i am now the proud owner of a "what me worry" capitalstool sweatshirt .
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:19 PM
I wholeheartedly agree regarding war profiteering. Many are looking to the defense sector which has not run whatsoever, but the true gains are being seen in the oil service names. Notice even today with the market as ugly as Molly Ringwald, the OSXers still went positive, same story on Monday.
I may have to sharpen up my boomerang.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:26 PM
Um...France has had a declinist view of the west, not just the US for 100 years, it's part of their capitulation culture.
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)
"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).
It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)
Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years  ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:33 PM
Mark thanks again for your work as it is the first thing I read when I get home. This market is untradeable as you stated, however, if you look at the longer trend (down) and patient it could be very well KA-Ching! In the short run, they will take your money as they have real time information, like stop lost on these shorts. In the long run, the market can not be manipulated.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:40 PM
As in Los Angeles, so in Buenos Aires. Appealing to human vanity apparently is a recession-proof business:
"Despite the economic hard times, much of this elegant capital, often compared with Paris for its leafy boulevards and cafe culture, retains its style. In the southern hemisphere's summer, men wear suits, or at least dressy shirts and slacks. Liposuction and breast implants, advertised here the way health clubs are in the U.S., are more common than ever."
Keeping up appearances
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:55 PM
ROID-You are right Mark just described and then insulted over 1/2 the residents of Stoolville-GRIN! Chibear-But WHO ?? will bring the beans! I don't know HOW the market can be untradeable the thing just kept falling down the stairs all day. Interesting they couldn't keep the JAM going-DA BOYZ may now be like NED'S motto-"can't get traction in this MUCK!" Well I got in a straddle yesterday not so much because of the rally we had but the chance of a war rally-I aborted that straddle today and am again 100% short. I now do not think war rally the reason being there is NOTHING to hang a rally hat on-the news just get's worse for the companies, the consumer is maxed out and scared and as Mark alluded to the funds are damn near tapped out. They tried and tried today to keep the jam going and turn it again-the ticks were bouncing from plus 500 to minus 500 all day-BUT THEY COULDN"T DO IT. Now PHAT correct me if I'm wrong but today was a Bradley turn date was it not?? if so we rallied into it so should decline from here-notice the aftermarket is getting whacked-tomorrow should be interesting-Trade Safe!
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:57 PM
From SI...A worthy note...From Rick Ackerman on Inflation/Deflation debate:
Higher Prices Deflationary?
Since the early 1990s, writing in Barron's and the San Francisco Examiner, I have steadfastly maintained that an outbreak of inflation was all but impossible. My reasoning, even a decade ago, was that disinflationary forces in the global economy had become too powerful to yield to the kind of price pressures that had prevailed during the 1970s. As a corollary I asserted that there was no way the world's second-largest economy, Japan, could sink into the deflationary mire without taking the first-largest economy with it. So far, nothing has convinced me otherwise. Another prediction I made was that certain hitherto intractable engines of inflation - namely housing, college education, medical care and government spending - would at some point grind to halt. That has not occurred - at least, not yet - but as the recession persists and deepened, my logic should be more compelling now to those who might have been skeptical just a year or two ago. Is college tuition at a private college on its way to $80,000? Will a routine doctor visit cost $200? We who would pay such costs know that our incomes will never keep pace. For individuals, as well as for governments, higher prices are unlikely merely because they would be unaffordable. Here is a note from the always provocative folks at Comstock Partners that drives the point home:
"Since the PPI came in at an unexpected rise of 1.6% for January, we are following up yesterday's comment in an attempt to answer the criticism of our deflationist stance. The fact that energy and other goods have increased in price in any past period means that businesses purchasing any of these goods undergo decreased profit margins if they can't pass the price hikes along to consumers. On the other hand, if they can pass along the increases, consumers have less money on hand to spend elsewhere. The past represents how much money the Fed was able to push into the banking system for consumers or corporations to borrow in order to purchase these same goods. The Fed may be able to continue this process indefinitely, which would produce the inflation most of the financial community believes is inevitable. On the other hand, if the goods and services are too costly, or the inability to take on more debt to purchase them is curtailed, it could lead to the deflation we are worried about.
"The Fed has been very successful in convincing whoever would listen, that there should be no concern about deflation as long as they can purchase Treasury Notes and Bonds or 'print money' in order to reflate and thereby offset any deflationary forces. We do believe the Fed can control the first part of the reflationary process. The FOMC can purchase Treasury securities from dealers such as banks, and pay for the securities with a new check from the Treasury. The part they can't control is the banks' willingness to loan the money, and a creditworthy entity willing to borrow the money. If the money is not loaned out to purchase goods and services, the jump-start the Fed made to stimulate economic growth comes to a screeching halt. This process is called the Velocity of money and is essentially nothing more than how much GDP is produced by each unit of money supply created.
"There is another scenario that could affect the balance of inflation and deflation. If the Fed were actually able to 'print' enough money to drive the dollar much lower, how do you think our trading partners (who pray each day that America will continue to buy their products) will react? For example, if the reserve currency drops by 30%, that would mean the main driver of the world economy just lost 30% of their purchasing power. Any car being exported into the U.S. which cost $100,000 before the debasement would now cost $130,000. This essentially exports deflation abroad, since our trading partners would probably have to lower the price of their exports to the U.S. The key to the battle of inflation or deflation is the direction of debt relative to GDP and the absolute level of debt. Since the destruction and elimination of debt is synonymous with deflation all you really have to do is to monitor the debt levels to determine which direction we are headed. Right now, the debt charts are continuing to grow. We are expecting this to change (probably later this year). With the U.S. economy continuing to deteriorate, and the global economy staggering, debt burdens can be the Achilles heel that trigger a wider slump. Under these circumstances it appears to us that deflation is a much greater probability than inflation."
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