Yet Another Round Trip
152 replies to this topic
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:16 PM
The End, you've got to work on your prediction skills man. Last night you said 839 would be the top today on $SPX. Dammit, you missed by 0.58 - fell below to boot. This may be close enough for government work, but we expect better, even if it comes after several Rolling Rocks. Now get to it
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:16 PM
I'm like that old Gene Autry song-"I'm Back in the Straddle again". It was a KACHING day for me today-when I saw the roll start I closed some of my most profitable puts for good coin and grabbed a Mittful of March 825 calls at $27.90 and they closed at $35.-. Soo I am still 2 to 1 net short but straddled and will make some coin on the short upside i BELIEVE this reversal will have. Let's talk about said reversal today was an inside day lower low and higher high generally quite bullish-but it smells like rotting fish! If you use candlestick charts like I do you would have seen an all engulfing candle that looked like a nuclear explosion on all the indicies as Da Boyz implemented the latest plan-you can't turn an Aircraft Carrier around in a bathtub -BUT THEY DID! Bob Carver over at Marketclues.com has an excellent frothing at the mouth rant about todays interference. He points out they poured so much money into QQQ calls that the dollar amount in Q's exceeded the $ amount in OEX for only the second time ever-the first time was the rally jam after 911. Now these BOZO's can't stop the rain but they can delay it-I suspect this may be the pre war ramp as the new moon is only a few days away. So somewhere between here and say 870 (I would be surprised if it got that high) it will be over. So protect yourselves hedge, fold or if you are out till April stay the course-you should be O.K. Yes it could be over tomorrow but at the mo it looks to me that they will try and push it higher. Gold looks to me like it is hammering out a good bottom here so yes I have been nibbling. Mousey you are right but non urbis carborundum (don't let the bastards grind you down!) Trade Safe!
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:16 PM
Mob, welcome back. Question for you - remember ZMH? You had it on your short list some time ago. It has broken out and is at 52 week high now. What's your take on it now - stay away or short?
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:27 PM
Brian, while my feelings of outrage at the goobermint manipulation is high, I'm as cool as a cucumber regarding my position. I too made money today.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:29 PM
Funny, you'd think gold was in a bear market and tech wreck stocks were in a bull market. In the ST that may be true,
But in the LT we know better - riiiiight Stoolies?!
Perhaps we go nowhere for awhile...
Fine by me cuz when you're holding short a portfolio of pure dung that has about one-in-a-million chance of making someone who was long them profitable then I have absolutely no worries about being short them in a SWUP to drip-down market.
Especially since most have been pounded to the point-of-no-return giving me a 25% cushion to flip the bird at the jerk-me-around days like today.
Ratchet-down [portfolio] theory. "The plane has taken off, you may now remove your seat-belts and are free to move around the cabin."
Welcome back Mobs, was wondering where you were. Read Jesse Livermore's - World's Greatest Stock Trader, would have saved you that 40K
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:35 PM
The Three Wedges
A Bedtime Story by Phatbubble
once upon a market there were three wedges:
one fine market open when their Great Grampa Wedge was dandling them on his knees, he smiled down at the three little wedges and said in a Big Grampa Voice, "well, my little wedges, have you figured out what kind of wedges you are?"
the three wedges looked at each other and scratched their declining angles. "no," they all said together.
"i'll give you a hint," said Great Grampa Wedge. "look at your little green rings."
the three wedges stared at their green rings and then looked at each other with wonderous looks and widening smiles. "hoorayyyyyy," they all yelled together. "we're bullish wedges! we're bullish wedges!"
and with that, oopy, goopy, and shmoopy scrambled down and went scampering off, as Great Grampa Wedge smiled after them with a big wedgie smile.
next time: do the three little wedges turn out to be bullish wedges????
to be continued....at the end of Mark to Market ....or, in a little while
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:41 PM
Mark, Those fidelity funds aren't new. In fact, they are fund of funds that are composed of assest allocations of other fidelity funds. (although none of them include a gold or commodity fund). One stop 401k, no anxious decisions on whether to be in the Fidelity Magellan or Spartan, just pick you're retirement and the fund-of-funds will do the work. I don't know how Fidelity is spinning them as new, they've been around.
"WE ARE BEING KEPT ALIVE by the Entropic movement of Dark Matter(Sino-Nippo-dollar purchasing of $UST)---as soon as there is a ringing sound,a sign of an clogged artriosclerotic wormhole on the emergency fiat-meter it will end--dynamic equilibrium,will have been achieved;better known as death" -- beardrech (Mar 15 2006, 01:17 AM)
"There's a good chance he was drunk or drugged. Only an idiot would jump into the bear cage." -- Belgrade Zoo Director Vuk Bojovic (August 20, 2007).
It's like you're dreamin' about Gorgonzola cheese when it's clearly Brie time, baby. -- Hitchhiker (S.A.M. 1998)
Mar 28 2003: July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move...then the first leg of the bear is over ...many will be caught by surprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years  ..."depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010. -- blackbelt (Mar 28 2003, 10:05 PM)
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:45 PM
Was the Fidelity ad the one with the Oriental babe on a leather couch with her legs spread? That'll certainly get one's attention.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:49 PM
Thanks to Woody on Traders-talk for reminding me to check this indicator:
Note the 10 day OEX put/call ratio is spiking higher (now is the highest it's been since the March bear slaughter last year) while the 10 day equity put/call ratio is dropping (to some extent this is influenced by those QQQ puts, so this is not as clear cut as I'd prefer, but it's a definite bearish sign). That said, I may close shorts tomorrow as we may get a similar ramp job to last March, leading to the mother of all tops.....
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:49 PM
"printing and IMAGINinG division" is more like it!!! LOLOL
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005
"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!
"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw
"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)
"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04
"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"
Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996
"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc
"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04
"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04
"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04
"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:52 PM
Try Bamex.com You can deposit US$Peso and exchange for any other currency without charge.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:54 PM
same old spin,day after day...the headline from marketcrotch in huge bold type...
February 25, 2003 7:52 pm ET
H-P's net profit up 49 percent
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:55 PM
Let me guess:
First wedgie (oopy) was 20 days after the March Madness highs on the Nasdaq.
Buddha's Blow by Blow on April 1:
"All I see is constant rotation of frantic money in the Nasdaq, no commitment whatsoever at all, easy news spooking of all issues, best way is to stay out and daytrade with smaller lots, not risking capital while Houses issue their manipulations, News oscillates Market like huge sheet of aluminum struck by a baseball bat."
Second wedgie (goopy) was the June spike on the Nasdaq after the "Black is White" "broken chart is fixed" May explosion.
Buddha's Comment on June 14:
“Crazed open, best entries are for sure at the time turns when one sees ticks at -1,000. This provided a 25 point low risk bounce and occurred just as leader on trading site was warning people about more possible selling, continues to be contrary indicator intraday. So many games, tiresome really. Broker had all wrong quotes constantly over last week in QQQ, nearly impossible to fill an order, if someone doesn't get you coming they try and get you going. Paranoia is the unfortunate and essential ingredient to good trading, wreaks havoc in personal life however, my dog now is possible collaborator with the Specialists, one bark and he is signaling to Mort Silverstein down on floor of Exchange that I am long, two barks mean I'm short, I must check His fur daily for hot wires and microphones. Best to merely sell into all expansion candles and take what feed is thrown out onto floor. Art Cashin last seen overwhelmed by huge expulsion of Methane onto trading floor, ambulance called in, subject revived and now back to trading heavily in the gold pits. Other younger neophytes not so lucky, death toll amongst 27 year old fund managers continuing to mount, only a matter of time before JanesAnus the once proud mutual fund of the go go era will be sewn up and given colonoscopy bag.”
Last wedgie (shmoopy) is the recent decline on the Dow from the January highs.
We are now suffering from that aftermath.
When will it end?
PigMen Proprietary Trading Desk
The Weimar Run: Bullphoria!!!!
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:59 PM
Mark, I think you nailed 'em. None are bullish...bwhahahahaha.
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