Yet Another Round Trip
152 replies to this topic
Posted 25 February 2003 - 06:56 PM
Hyper--How cynical and depressing, maxing out unsecured credit cards to buy gold. I didn't get whether you recommend declaring bankruptcy so as to keep this stash of gold coins with a zero cost basis. The whole thing is kind of ironic (now that I think about it) and poetic, as fiat credit would be used to buy real money, the act of which would contribute to the demise of the credit system.
Jerry Mc--Yeah, GG is a good buy. . .and RGLD and GFI and GLG and DROOY are all becoming buys. Make sure you have it clear in your mind whether you are looking for a trade or for longer term investment. The golds may consolidate for an unspecified length of time. The HUI has possibly 5-8% more vulnerability. Check with Charmin on Stool's Gold every night.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 06:57 PM
when folks realize that real estate is cracking, then we get the waterfall - nothing will hit home faster than sheeple losing their homes. imagine the stark recognition when the jonses next-door cant service their household debt when momma gets cutback at work and they file BK.
lets face it, many families have upgraded/sustained their style of living via home equity (now debt ). when their remaining r.e. equity evaporates as a result of steep price/value decline, they are going to wake up and realize that their net worth is less than ZERO; thanks to depreciated asset values of cars, boats, furniture, george foreman BBQs, etc and a mortgage balance in excess of the value of their home. much of the MFD exchange activity is comprised of "investors" faced with exchanging into overpriced C- properties to avoid paying taxes - thats not necessarily market value! they will absorb the huge trading costs to realize (temporarily) their inflated equity, so they can max leverage it into another inflated property; probably at very high projected rents, increased operating efficiencies lower expenses, etc. in other words: on a PROFORMA basis!
nothing pays like patience. just try and imagine mr. jones - his home finances are priced for perfection - everything must go perfect for him, no room for error. he has no savings and a big monthly nut. occassionally when he wakes up in the middle of the night, it flashes thru his unconsciousness( ): "whatta i do if something goes wrong." as his 401-K drains away, his wife loses her job and rumors at his business begin to circulate about cutbacks when they lose that manufacturing contrat to the chinese firm, he starts to sleep less each night... the voice in the middle of the nights gets louder: maybe he should convert that 401-k to cash (the company stock is in the toilet anyway) just to be safe. and there are now lots of houses for sale on his block - stupid neighbors are selling too cheap, why last year that house was worth $100,000 more and their asking price barely would barely cover the mortgage debt and sales costs! maybe he should move into a smaller house? nah, california real estate always goes up! he can always borrow to get them through the "soft spot."
it could be a sigma-10 event. but more likely, it is gonna be the real estate market and rising unemployment/under-employment that start the dominos dropping. then the downturn will gain strength exponenatially.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 06:58 PM
Ok that was a little scary, especially for a first post. I'm not sure whether to post this smiley or this one
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:00 PM
PALO ALTO, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Feb. 25, 2003
Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE:HPQ - News) announced that effective today, it will start using a new monetary system to compensate its employees and suppliers. Under the new system, HP will pay employees and supplier with pro-forma money. This radical move was expected by anal cysts for a long time. As one anal cyst noted "HP has been reporting pro-forma revenues, pro-forma costs, pro-forma income and pro-forma EPS for a long time. It only makes sense that they will start using pro-forma money as a monetary unit...".
The new pro-forma money will be printed at HP's printing and imaging division and will resembles legal US Treasy notes.
A reaction to the move by employees and suppliers could not be obtained at this hour, although HP comfirmed that higher management employees will remain under the old system of hard, treasury-minted greenbacks.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:04 PM
Mark, your warnings of the risk involved when "trading against your government" has never been more apparent to me than today. An almost 200 point Dow turnaround, 20 on the S&P and around 38 on the Naz with only minor noise which was bearish in nature. There were gaps to fill but, the power of this kind of jamming really shows what "da boyz" can do. Al is cornered and rabid. The kiddies down on Wall St. and up on Sixth Ave have definitely learned the art of the coordinated squeeze.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:05 PM
anyone have an AH quote on cdwc? Thanks.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:09 PM
Last 42.35 BxO 42.33x94
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:11 PM
In the interests of having more meaningful figures
a 88% rise in San Francisco home prices over 5 1/2 years
equates to around 12% pa.
Which in a low inflation environment equates to a pretty
good real rate of return.
Anyone have any historical precedents for what a sustainable rate of return on residential property might be?
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:15 PM
Thanks microdon. Can someone take a look at the chart of SOHU? I have a short position which is about breaking even right now -- it looks to me it's retesting the high from mid Jan on lighter volume, is it bearish in the s/t and i/t? Just a little afraid that it may repeat previous patterns and break to new highs.
I know I should listen to Pile -- only short the sick ones Believe me I will. Thanks everyboday...
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:29 PM
Posted 25 February 2003 - 07:42 PM
After an "inside tip " on CC that cost MOB 40k, he is back in action from a much needed vacation. No problems though, Mob has learned to take advice from only himself from here on out. Mob is going short AMZN and YHOO for the full long term tomorrow...not 1 or 2 points , but an all out tankage. Something ominous is brewing, and the hype from the Financial news and very low upside volume is speaking to me.....A gap down is coming...Not because MOB has a "feeling"(well he does) or because he wants it to....its just coming and it is going to be like nothing we ever seen before. I wish the govt could let us go into a recession and accumulate cheap shares of stocks, but the fact is they are adamant on holding this thing up short term and in the next 2 years putting us into a full out depression. Sun v Beeches....Mob will be shorting any rallies from here on out with a vengeance.....especially the DOW stocks like IBM...AMZN and YHOO should be shorted and held , regardless of rallies, until they are halved...this is the last chance to make money, and everyone knows it....hence, the rallies on miniscule volume....MM and funds are hoping to get shorts to cover early and suck in new longs before the devastation
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:03 PM
Interesting... I tripled my $$ on a house I bot here in 1978 and sold in 1994(16 yrs)... But since 1994 I bought another home, and tripled up on it in the last 8 yrs...
Of course I live in the SF Bay area, with a killer view of the Bay and Mountains...
I wrestle with the sell or stay dilemma like everyone else here sitting on a huge windfall profit...
There seems to be only 2 available paths for R.E., at least here in CA, we either go into the asset bubble deflation path, or the runaway inflation path... I was reasonably certain a year ago, that deflation was coming... Now, even at these insane valuations, the market is poised here to go higher... and it could, especially if the $$ turns into a peso... Put a fresh coat of paint on inside and out, just in case I decide it's time to make my move... still wrestling.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:10 PM
anybody know best way to play canadian $ or aussie $(i have FAX) or Yen
i tried punching in CANDLR1 for can$ on etrade..no luck.. anyway to buy currency
through etrade or ameritrade..dreaming i guess
euro seems stuck...
as for GG
i sold GG at 11.30 a hidden pivot on the breakthrough and then it tried to go up past it and it was stuck at the 11.32 pivot-Ackerman seems to think 10.45 is in the cards-
scary looking bear flag on the $HUI projects to 122ish i ambuying there..
interesting currency intraday support and resistance
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:14 PM
Your forgetting the leverage. The ROI is far higher, dependent of course on the amount of money down, the mortgage rate etc.
And the beauty part is that almost anyone can play with the leverage and to make it even sweeter there is no risk. (sarcasm alert)
War is the last great hope of the incompetent to order the unwilling to attempt the impossible.
could burn down
We jammin still
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