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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 04:49 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – February 21, 2003

Today the market opened flat, tried to rally, then dropped off a cliff when news of a refinery explosion hit the tape. That selloff lasted all but 5 minutes, before the Program Robots came in with the usual “stick save”.

Al Green has instructed the Gang of 22 to issue immediate, automatic buy signals in the event of any terrorist attack, earthquake, maritime disaster, explosion, anthrax outbreak, holocaust, locust swarms, assassinations, derivative meltdowns, hedge fund failures, bank runs, dollar failures, or price spikes in gold.

What would you expect?

And did anybody notice the immediate spike in Uncle Buck by the ESF? They must have also installed some Program Robots over in Chicago.

Your tax dollars at work, debt ceilings ignored.

Nothing has changed.

Nothing will, until Joe Public has a catalyst to sell. Where will that come from? When will it happen? Next month? Next year? Who knows. We must wait for the Bull Market in Liquidity and the Perpetual Motion Machine to run out of gas.

Not much to report today, other than a few items from The Wall Struck Journal:

Regarding the trade deficit: “If you are a foreigner trying to sell a product and your other markets are weak, you redouble your efforts in the U.S. market, which is the biggest and deepest.”

Yet another example of the incredible global maze of hope and circuit cables, wired directly to the borrow and spend U.S. consumer.

Germany’s banks are under intense pressure. The IMF is worried that a global financial crisis will start in Germany, so they are going to start a review of the banking sector to review its ability to absorb shocks, such as market speculation about about perceived weaknesses, liquidity problems, high bad-debt provisions, and other structural problems which point to a systemic crisis:

“Chancellor Gerhard Schroder and the finance ministry have sought the input of Germany’s financial-services regulator, its central bank, stock-market operators, and the chairmen of major banks, on ways to deal with future external shocks.”

Mark’s Translation:

European financiers continue to maintain envy of their U.S. counterparts. They have been watching in awe of how effective the futures pumping in the overnights, the Repo Blasts, the short squeezing, the Expert Matrix Media Manipulation, tape painting, and damage control have prevented a meltdown in the U.S. financial markets. The DAX is close to breaking the October lows, yet the NYSE remains resilient. Studies will be undertaken in order to duplicate a Plunge Protection Team in Europe, so that Germany will not be left alone to sink in the abyss in the event of a systemic crisis.


Over in Japan, more money is being thrown at the banking problem. New stock offerings or convertibles are being offered to new investors, who will be “guaranteed” against principal loss. Existing shareholders will have to take the shaft. Who will be the buyers of these new issues? Probably HedgeHog arbitrageurs, the ultimate in Hot Money.

“Selling pressure has picked up at the Japanese banks despite a flurry of fund-raising plans announced recently to help them shore up their capital bases in time for the March 31 deadline. With Japanese interest rates near zero, the megabanks are raising money at a cost that will destroy shareholder value, doing nothing to improve profits. Longer-term outlook for recovery ultimately hinges on a recovery in their business fundamentals.”

“The Bank of Japan may take further monetary-easing steps or increase the amount of shares it buys from banks looking to “unwind” their “cross-shareholdings” totaling 2 trillion yen.”

Yet more paper, more debt, more stock to mask the problems of banks.

After a brief honeymoon period, the corporate debt market is coming under stress again. Two high yield offerings from Mandalay Bay and FastenTech were postponed this week. “Equity index weakness has finally caught up with the high-yield bond market.”

But Auto Erotica continues full speed ahead, with Nissan Motor Acceptance pulling off a $1.6 billion securitization which was well oversubscribed with orders for four times the amount offered underwriters said. They cited a trend by investors to seek the relative safety of higher-rated debt securities that are ‘liquid’ or easily traded.

Once again. Debt treated as money.

Buddha showed up for about 5 minutes, but was disgusted with the sweeping and spiking, so he retreated to the Zen monastery:

“Try and take the day off, come in for a quick gander after a leisurely morning of headstanding and navel contemplation and what happens. O Sama boogie man is running rampant over the Street. Good to know that the Ministry of Information immediately emerged from their Nintendo game den beneath Tommy Ridge's vacation cottage in Wisconsin to drown all rumors with deafening full frontal work on the bullhorns.”

“Who cares? I'd like to know whats going on with Kathryn Tanzy. I haven't watched Crapvision in months and months. I had the false confidence that some things just never change. Like Tanzie's North Texas 'Super-Cut' hairdo that made her look like a check-out slut working the night shift at Target. Now this. Shes gone with the Egyptian black dye and spiked bangs that convince me she is in recent partnership with Leslie La Roche and working the dungeon circuit somewhere off of China Town.”

“Why not? More money in that trade than on Wall Struck. With top end clients from the film and news broadcasting divisions their business must be booming. They keep their day job reading the teleprompters for a basic wage, the exposure insures superb networking; the only downside is the cost of soundproofing and stocking the afterhours parlor. Now that all the excitement has died down and the children are back in their seats its time to retake the day off. Just another Options Racketeering Week, I'm looking for more lows in a few days per post OE trend but nothing is written in stone, not even the U.S. Constitution.”

Girlfriend of the Week

None other than The Bachelorette: Trista Rehn

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#2 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:08 PM

Enjoyed your article, as always, Mark.

For those of you who found today's action a bit stressful,
here's a Zen-like quote from one of the three wise men.

"Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy;
profit from folly rather than participate in it."

---- Warren Buffett

#3 machinehead

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:17 PM

"People with the human form of 'mad cow' disease apparently harbor the infectious protein in their noses, scientists are reporting, raising questions about transmission of the disease and opening a possible avenue for detecting it."

Poison boogers

So that's what happened to Krudlow ... done in by a bad batch of coke. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.
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#4 BigWave

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:22 PM

"People with the human form of 'mad cow' disease apparently harbor the infectious protein in their noses, scientists are reporting, raising questions about transmission of the disease and opening a possible avenue for detecting it."

Poison boogers

So that's what happened to Krudlow ... done in by a bad batch of coke. A mind is a terrible thing to waste.

:lol: :lol: :lol:

#5 morass

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:37 PM

Thanks Mark,

Yesterday we had inflation and it was good or bad. Today we have no inflation and it is good or bad. Which is it today MH? Or is it?

#6 Drano

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:37 PM

Someone posted about a new "lie detector" technology that uses computer imaging to determine whether a smile is authentic or forced, because different muscles are used in a real smile than in a fake smile.

Gee, I wonder which kind "the bachelorette" is displaying, in the photo Mark posted?
Not this one: :grin:
Of course I'm caustic!

#7 bubbadropping

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:38 PM

I wrote a tag on this out of Clearstation that was swiped due to obscenity. Did anyone check out that "Are You Hot Enough" show on ABC last nite? Theres alot of good material in there for me and Mark to mine next week. A complete laugh riot farce. Paddy Chayevsky is no doubt spinning in his grave and sueing for plagiarism. Unbeleivable trailer park culture we now witness nightly on the tube. I was in hysterics and had trouble rolling over to sleep it was that good.

#8 Drano

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:40 PM

"People with the human form of 'mad cow' disease apparently harbor the infectious protein in their noses, scientists are reporting, raising questions about transmission of the disease and opening a possible avenue for detecting it."

What's that poem or song... "My Love is Like a Red, Red Nose"?
(Picture of The Bachelorette reminded me of it.....)
Of course I'm caustic!

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:51 PM

I wrote a tag on this out of Clearstation that was swiped due to obscenity. Did anyone check out that "Are You Hot Enough" show on ABC last nite? Theres alot of good material in there for me and Mark to mine next week. A complete laugh riot farce. Paddy Chayevsky is no doubt spinning in his grave and sueing for plagiarism. Unbeleivable trailer park culture we now witness nightly on the tube. I was in hysterics and had trouble rolling over to sleep it was that good.

I did not catch it but, walking into the subway entrance this morning some illegal shoved a copy of the "New York Sun", some 16 page rag that is giving them away as they try to start up. They too mentioned "Network" and Paddy in regards to this show and said it isn't even . . .
Anyway Buddha, below is the article from their web site if you care to read it. It's amusing.

http://www.nysun.com...e.asp?artID=566

#10 Fartpolio Manager

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:52 PM

Velly interesting day today... note the silence of the SOX today. Something tells me by the action I saw in some of the chips today, that we'll see some sort of an upgrade there next week, too easy to run it right up to 315 here, 300 looks like a slam dunk, Then I'd be looking for that big gap/Maria wet panties opening... I'll be watching closely for that chip borking...

#11 wndysrf

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:57 PM

Buddha:

I missed it. Saw the very beginning, but fell asleep.

Did you check out those posers?

Truly an accurate picture of the MTV Spring Break society.

Wish I would have stayed up. Hopefully, I'll find a re-run of it somewhere.

Good thing you stayed out of the market today? Have you ever seen such hysterical action?? +1400 TICK readings, flatlining at MaxPain mid-day, then the late jam to get a positive close for the week?

Truly, the markets are 100% traded by gamers and Robots. What if Joe Public was forced to watch the intraday action every day? He would be sickened by the blatant manipulation and Keno Jamming and would pull his money out immediately.

A daily 5-minute chart of the QQQ with the Color Commentator's blow by blow description would be a great opening monologue for our new television show:

"Wall Struck on Cheat Street"

Let's call MTV and see if we can get on.....
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#12 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 06:06 PM

I wrote a tag on this out of Clearstation that was swiped due to obscenity. Did anyone check out that "Are You Hot Enough" show on ABC last nite? Theres alot of good material in there for me and Mark to mine next week. A complete laugh riot farce. Paddy Chayevsky is no doubt spinning in his grave and sueing for plagiarism. Unbeleivable trailer park culture we now witness nightly on the tube. I was in hysterics and had trouble rolling over to sleep it was that good.

I did not catch it but, walking into the subway entrance this morning some illegal shoved a copy of the "New York Sun", some 16 page rag that is giving them away as they try to start up. They too mentioned "Network" and Paddy in regards to this show and said it isn't even . . .
Anyway Buddha, below is the article from their web site if you care to read it. It's amusing.

http://www.nysun.com...e.asp?artID=566

I wonder how just low our society will go regarding what we tolerate in the media before a majority of people start to say "Enough!" and society starts to bungee in the other direction?

Not that it's any better in, say, Italy. ;)

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 06:12 PM

I like that part where the writer quotes the late comedian, Ernie Kovacks on why they call television a medium, "because it is neither rare nor well done." :D

#14 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 06:12 PM

Someone posted about a new "lie detector" technology that uses computer imaging to determine whether a smile is authentic or forced, because different muscles are used in a real smile than in a fake smile.

Gee, I wonder which kind "the bachelorette" is displaying, in the photo Mark posted?
Not this one: :grin:

Don't know any about the show, but it goes to show that taste is very personal.

I don't find "The Bachelorette" attractive.
To be fair, she'd probably think the same about me.

I think it's the smile. It strikes me as very forced.

But then I think the dark haired asian woman in the "Harris Direct" ad that pop-up everywhere is incredably hot. Those cheekbones, those lip, those . . . :blink:

#15 Pee Brain

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 06:16 PM

i cannot speak to other areas of the country, but the socal apt. market is just unreal.... and yet, there appears to be a lack of product for buyers; the demand has gotten past scary - its manic. even allowing that home prices have increased and become less affordable (even with low interest rates) so that apartment demand and rents could increase, buyers have lost their senses. folks have literally made millions ($$$) here on smaller plex properties in the past 2-3 years and their neighbors are rushing to latch onto the train, not realizing that the only seat avalable is in the caboose. refi the house and invest in some units - you cant go wrong! great underwriting and honest appraisals will provide limited protection when this bubble goes "pop." this is not a minor ancillary "tangent" resulting from greenie's printing press: a shock event, major economic downturn, even modest demographic shift will boomerang loans and properties back to banks so fast they wont know what hit them. even subtle shifts in related areas of the economic base could cause major cracks in this market.

also, "ripples" will begin to hit competing markets as investors pyramid into other markets. forget the CDOs, GSEs, etc, inflated MFD real estate is providing speculative cash at an unsustainable rate. coming to your neighborhood soon: "a californicator" with a barrel of cash and a distorted perspective. everyone seems to have forgotten that real estate is cyclical.

this will end badly.
Iat least we're all safe for now. thank God we're in a bowling alley.





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