Al was a Rand follower and has built his own perpetual motion machine. The markets have been unbound from any old fashioned limits and absolutes.
I am serious about this. Derivatives are the realization of a libertarian ideal. If they crash, so what. That is what markets do.
Unless Al is trying to bring the system down (ala Atlas Shrugged), I am sure that Rand would disavow all that has transpired in recent years. He has gone against every precept he personally espoused in his Rand days.
You continually harp about libertarians, but apparently do not understand them at all. Our current situation is the antithesis of the libertarian ideal. We are mostly Austrian school economic students. That means, honest gold backed money and 100% reserve banking. The current crony capitalism and taxpayer backed Greenspan put is miles from the "libertarian ideal". And the derivative mountain that now looms over us would simply not be possible in an Austrian economy.
Please spend some time learning more about libertarians before posting such untruths.
So much banter about FEEDS ability or no in levitating this monster. This season is simply too important to the powers that be. A decision has already been made to begin hydraulic levitation. Why do you think that the Jake O'Neill and the FatMan were shown the door? Do not underestimate the pig headed foolishness of the frat boy in charge. I still think that a Santa rally will unfold shortly to the amazement of most bears. Sorry. Its a 'get out the consumer' event. The only thing that counters it is a geopolitical shocker. We still have room for one more in this time frame to fill our quota of reveletory surprises this year. Its always possible. But without something external to spike down the Market, the government will once again go on a goosing run here in my opinion. This is especially likely considering the new and emerging bravery of E Waving fanatics who after several miscues of no small consequence are now seeing their time in the spot light. Once again they will be foiled. They make excellent fadeable swing trades, the more certain they are of approaching disaster, the more likely disaster is to be postponed. By the way, whatever happened to the awesome 3rd leg down to the Apocalypse we were supposed to be witnessing in October? How quickly most forget and forgive. Betting on that kind of nonsense can vaporize ones account in no time. The time to short I suspect is not until sometime in January, the political agenda of the Matrix is too weighty short term to be betting against.
Comparing Oct low to Dec high is comparing apples to oranges.
Suppose a wave of selling hits, foreigners want out, not an unrealistic expectation since we are in a bear market, "they" won't be able to do anything about it. Nothing. Monday was a significant turning point, who cares if wave 3 or 5 or 1 lay ahead, either way you make money by gradually positioning now at a low risk point.
Oh, and by the way numerous non-ewave indicators are signaling major bubble top right now and a resumption of the main trend (hint: down) is already underway.
I'm sure a bounce will take place around year end or beginning of new year. I'm counting on one, its where I plan to pony up. The question is how much of a bounce and will it return to Monday's high? Doubtful from what I see. Is it worth waiting for it, what happens if it doesn't materialize like the majority expect? The majority are always wrong. Prices ran up recently in anticipation of the so-called year end rally already. Who's left to buy? This past rally started as a panic short covering, speculators then jumped in, and it finished off with retail buyers. Cycle complete.
As soon as you give up looking for something is when it happens.
Funny how the majority mainstream think this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime when in fact it is a selling opportunity of a lifetime.
Good luck to those trying to chase this beast in January.
I think the near term future's most likely scenario for the broad market is pretty simple. This may not be what DOES happen but I defy you to suggest that this isn't the MOST LIKELY scenario. If I understand the system, expiry comes on Friday Dec 20, (triple witching). Santa usually comes mid December. I'm expecting that Friday the 13th might be THE reversal day that gives us the near term low. So if we get another downdraft pre-opening like this Friday then start bailing early. Reshort next year. Leave Xmas to the Elves and Bottom Pixies.
(The managers and staff of ThorAss Ink would like to wish you and yours a safe and happy holiday season and would like to apologize to any elves or pixies who may have been offended by any comments made throughout the year. The people responsible for these errors in good judgment have been severely reprimanded and we promise that it will not happen again.)
I have many opinions; but I strive not to act on them.
Pile Driver - the Penn Central bankruptcy in 1970, the Franklin Square bank failure in 1974, the Mexican crisis of 1982, etc., did not occur in raging bull markets. Financial crises tend to occur late in bear markets. The ensuing reliquifaction is what ends bear markets.
I watch those Thursday night Fed releases just as Doc does. And so far, the half-point cut hasn't kicked up the banking system's demand for reserves as much as Al would like, though there's always a lag time. But Bush's public hanging of O'Neill and Lindsey will certainly serve to concentrate minds at the Fed.
When it comes to requilification, "you ain't seen nothin' yet." The people in charge have a megalomaniacal kink that runs a lot deeper than you think. Drastic measures are pending. Watch and see.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
Lots of differing opinions here. Mark is still holding and adding new shorts, Dock is still bearish, Machine is still counting on reliquefaction forcing the desired effect and the rest of the Board is pretty much split. Go long, stay short, add more shorts, by gold, stay in cash, runaway to the hills, join Mr. shrub and of course the ever satisfying alternative, yank your hair out.
I thought the market was supposed to dislike uncertainty. Not this market. Bring on the uncertainty, we love it. Fire a few more staff. Let's have a few more major companies go belly up. God it's getting good. How about a war? That would be stimulating.
I can say with great certainty that I'm totally uncertain. Holding shorts in some real supermodel crap. KLAC, Novellus, QLogic, and my most recent joke short of the day AMGN. The only reason in the world that these four stocks could go up in the coming months is because of complete and utter insanity. Therefore I'm seriously considering covering all my positions.
Caution, potentially perceived as political.
Some words have been said about the coming fate of the Iraqi people. Not the Iraqi elite but the Iraqi people. Women, children, old people. People. Yes we have to defend ourselves. Yes the killing of innocent civilians is always an adjunct of war. But somehow the killing of innocent civilians on 911 was different. Don't think it's any different to the individual being killed or to their surviving loved ones. We rush to war, we except that it is a job that has to be done, we squash dissent to the task at hand. But do we look at ourselves? Do we look at our history? Do we look at what hand we have had in the situation that has been created? We don't. We call them evildoers. Only a simpleton would say a thing like that. We try to make the picture black and white, but it can never be . Children are children the world around. They are not evildoers. They are children, they are innocent, that's black and white.
Did we support Saddam Hussein with billions of dollars of United States taxpayers money. Did we installed the Shaw of Iran who tortured his own people? Did our own CIA use gobs of United States taxpayers money to support and train our current evil enemy? Does it seem odd that after defeating the USSR by outspending them militarily, we now need to spend vastly more on our military to defend against suicide bombers. The USSR and China and who knows who else still have mass quantities of thermal nuclear weapons pointed at the American people. Any one of those bombs going off here would make 911 look like a fleabite. Does anyone think that spending hundreds of billions more dollars to buy a new fleet of fighter jets will address either of those threats?
Ultraconservatives and Ultra liberals tend to end up in the same place. America is not an evil empire. The American people are certainly not evil. For every wrong we have committed, there was another world force who would gladly have taken our place. It is not black and white. So, nasty as things seem, America is still the best country on the earth. We have no choice but to do our best to work to improve America while keeping an eye on and vigilantly seeking the truth.
Everything tends to regress to the mean. History tends to repeat itself. At the end of the Carter Administration, an ounce of gold traded for about the same price as the entire list of Dow stocks. That was an aberration, to be sure. But no more of an aberration than what happened at the end of the Clinton years - when it took 38 ounces of gold to by the Dow. Currently, an ounce of gold will buy only 1/28th of the Dow...with probably a lot further to go before things have reached normal. Buy low, sell high. Buy gold, sell the Dow.
What future have the Dow components got anyway? The peg with the USD has to be broken before every shelf around the globe is stuffed with Chinese goods. The trade deficit with China will never be closed as long as the Renminbi is pegged to the greenback. As the USD depreciates against the Euro, Chinese goods will flood Euroland and exacerbate their already poor economic performance. China is the number one contributor to deflationary pressures and they are growing like crazy!
I am calling the death of the financial economy and the rebirth of the real economy. Gold is the only real store of value. It is not a commodity. It is money. Pushing through $330 will mark a milestone in re-evaluating paper assets and hard assets. Get ready to capitalise on this trend shift.
Mh: no doubt they will try, have been trying and will pull out all the stops. Mu question is why do you think it will work this time? IT did not work in the 30's ( when btw, debt levels were much lower) it is not working in Japan. Why will this time be different? I am not saying hperinflation is out of the question, but I find it given all the previous points, highly unlikley. Why not always have permanent prosperity if all it takes is a edict from a central planning body? In addition sir statist greenspew is in hell of condumdrum, if he prints too much he loses the bond mkt, and if he loses the bond mkt, you can say goodninght.
Shampoo,bombing innocent civilians is evil,Shrub hisself
tells us that.So how come ol' Poppy can kill over
one thousand innocent civilians in a Baghdad bomb
shelter and not get smoked outta his hole?
The idiot prince will kill thousands more,this guy reminds
me of Caligula.
The ROW doesn't have a problem with the American people,
most of us have a problem with the MI complex regime that was installed in '63 and is currently ruling the world today in the most troubling case of deja vu ever.
people just strengthened the sociopath's mandate,therefore
they are quite culpable in the orgy of wanton killing of
innocent civilians that Shrubber is so eagerily anticipating.
The government reflects the people,they had the
chance to change or at least put the brakes on
this bogus war and the war profiteer behind it and they didn't.
If not for the status of issuer of the world's "reserve"
currency,American would already be a stagnant backwater.
My good Buddy Piledriver- who has been making the case that we are on the cusp of the big dump-has taken a shot or two from those who think Al can re-liquefy and re-inflate and those who think we are recovering. Both camps believe fervently that the markets will then soar and once again there will be a chicken in every pot and a blonde in every bed. Ya rite!- Take a long look around-the economy is BROKEN-virtually every company is in hock for BILLIONS which will not be repaid-their pension funds are in hock for BILLIONS and most contributors to those pension funds will never see a dime when they retire. The vaunted consumer is carrying record debt and personal bankruptcies are at record highs and most consumer debt will never be repaid. The Government deficit for the first 3/4's of this year is in excess of a 1/4 trillion dollars and there is a war to fight and Hoover wants to cut taxes some more. The Airlines are broke, the Auto manufacturers are broke and the stock market valuations are as high or higher than they were when the Bubble burst. One doesn't need e waves or technical analysis to realize something has to give-well it's about too in SPADES. Al and Hoover have fought a hell of a battle to try and convince the public the economy is on the road to recovery but Mr. and Mrs. Sixpack are FINALLY starting to realize the trouble that is ahead-consumption is slowing and savings are just starting to rise once that trend accelerates it's over for the economy. What is to come is the only way to cleanse the system of all that debt and overcapacity-staying short and buying Gold will make fortunes for those who ignore the "noise" and the spasmodic rallies of the dying Beast. As Hypertiger says "these are the best of times" Trade Safe!~
Machinehead...I so agree...most here grossly underestimate the determination and resources of the enemy...the post here about the Fed now controlling both the bottom of the yield curve and, for the first time, the top via unknown entities, was probably read by many and understooled by somewhat fewer...here's more fuel for that growing pyre:
From Chapman's "International Forecaster" excerpt on goldseek.com--
HR 1161 is a bailout for those buried in derivatives. The new law would make the netting of profit and loss zero balance in a transaction in case of financial failure of the grantor. It would sanitize derivatives. Supposedly the proposal is to reduce systemic risk through settlement programs in an unregulated market. The President’s Working Group on Financial Markets, also known as the “Plunge Protection Team”, would render recommendations. The group has been manipulating our financial markets for the greater good of our elitist cabal. Players are Chairman of the FED, President of the New York FED, Chairman of the SEC and CFTC and the Secretary of the Treasury. This bill would give these foxes the run of the hen house and give them the legal ability to slaughter at will. This Financial Contract Netting Improvement Act of 1999 would supposedly strengthen the provisions of the Federal Deposit Insurance Act and bankruptcy laws that protect the enforceability of contractual rights to terminate and close out certain capital markets transactions, net the amounts payable by each party, and foreclose on any collateral. Thus, again through cooking the books, the entire derivatives fiasco could be neutralized allowing the players to escape the penalty of their errors.
He actually gets the bill number wrong, but the text is a revelation--see for yourself here:
Now what does this magic (as opposed to magick) mean?
Well, as J.R. Ewing once told a timid partner in crime, "...once you give up integrity, the rest is a peice of cake."
Create debt that is real to the counterparty by law, and retire it with funds backed by a productive citizenry but created out of thin air.
Backstop a derivative meltdown by buying out the downside with created money via an unregulated entity you then collapse.
Make legal the elimination of pension shortfalls by accounting rule changes that finagle enough of them in the aggregate to make management of the remaining problem children comfortable for the average 9:30-4:30 bureaucratic stooge.
The other point worth noting is that that which "everyone knows" is not worth knowing. The increasingly bullish sentiment reflected by bulls vs. bears from Investors Intelligence (at levels of bear rally peaks and at the level of fall 2000) is a direct consequence that "everyone" knows that the stock market ALWAYS bottoms during the fall of the year of the mid-term election; "everyone" knows that the market ALWAYS bottoms with the 20-year cycle; "everyone" knows that the market ALWAYS bottoms in October-November; "everyone" knows that the best time to buy is ALWAYS November-February; and the third year of a presidential term is ALWAYS UP!!!
Well, when "everyone" knows, "everyone" is ALWAYS WRONG!!! "Everyone" is the mob, the amorphous, anonymous mass of emotion and excitation, herding in ebbs and flows of greed and fear with episodes of exuberance and mass panic. At some point in the weeks ahead, the mob will meet seemingly simultaneously with the "point of recognition" or the mass social-psychological "tipping point", the moment at which "everyone" comes to realize that "everyone" was WRONG! as usual, and "everyone" will want to get out with "everyone" else.
Enjoy the exercise, Norm, and be sure to share your findings with the folks on this list, folks who desperately need to be "enlightened". Coming from me, they won't believe the results. From you, however, they might "get it".
The bear market phase we are about to experience will shake the faith of the most stridently optimistic bull and defender of buy and hold. Many or most will panic and sell at or on the way toward the bottom and swear on their mother's honor that they will never again put another nickel in the stock market, a soon-to-be Boomer belief that will be gospel in their minds and hearts, and be preached to their children and grandchildren until the last Boomer passes from this existence.
Thus, the complacency accompanied by examples of grim silence amidst still-hopeful bullishness we see today will soon give way to outright anger, fear, dejection, and just plain heart-racing panic, as the Boomer generation comes to understand just how foolish and naive they have been.
"Retirement" for most Boomers will be something their parents and grandparents did but merely a modern-day utopian pipe dream for most Boomers, as they face elderhood with dwindling savings, unemployment and underemployment, inability to afford medical services they had hoped for, bankruptcy, and resentment and anger. And, to make matters even worse, just as the bulk of Boomers reach the conventional retirement years of their 60s, inflation will be running rampant as the federal government piles up trillions of dollars in huge deficits and additional public debt as it is faced with the challenge of bailing out Social Security, Medicare, pensions, and 401(k)s, and spending hundreds of billions of dollars to defend western civilization against the encroachment of hostile, murderous, disease-ridden barbarian savages at the empire's frontiers and inside the gates
As per ORO @ USA GOLD
The coming fate of most babyboomers ..will be to live
in nursing homes attended by a staff that wishes they
would just die. Dressed in rags and eating gruel.
yeah b4 that's about the size of it. or, shape. or smell.
one troubling thing is the possibility that Q1 03 may not be a series of weeks which all look something like this past week.
what happens when the dow trips the breakers? and if, when the floor is opened hours later or the next day, it happens again? what would it take to close the market for an extended period? what happens to open positions then? how much of a run would cause a freeze on brokerage cash? how many news stories like these does it take to clean out the shelves of the local grocery store? who is going to refill them?
jesus, how are we going to eat?
etc. etc. etc.
very few of us have seen a true panic in our lifetimes. this may change. the barter system is already enjoying a roaring revival in south america.
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here. You haven't answered my question. Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.