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#16 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 06:41 PM

If not already posted earlier...

A must read on HedgeHogs vs. Mutual Funds, and a blow by blow of the failure of Eifuku...

Repeatedly blown out by last hour ramp jobs.

Sound familiar??

Chad Hudson - Feb. 19th

This probably explains, in part, the days when the movments of the DJIA and Nasdaq are essentially 100% correlated. They go up and down in lock-step.

The odds of this happening by chance given that they only 2 stocks in common should be remote. Yet it happens.

#17 rog

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 06:55 PM

FNM bid $1.30 lower AH.

No wonder the put premiums exploded at the close. ;)


If the homebuilders follow along tomorrow, that will be the final crack that breaks the branch, and we will be on our way to a relentless decline.

Fannie Mae CEO warning about earnings in a conversation with Reuters at the Business Council summit in Florida.

#18 The End

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:14 PM

Sold the march 900's at 838. :grin:

I felt weird being "not short enough" so I bought the 895 march's near the close. That could turn out to be a mistake. :( We shall see.

How did my fellow stoolies do today?
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:15 PM

Great post again Mark. The structured exotica scheme is still going strong -- my wife works for a major accounting firm in their structured finance group, offering accounting and valuation service to wall struck underwriting those CDOs and ABS deals. She has never been busier, overtime in the evening and during the weekends are rules not exceptions now, and the CSFBs and the Lehmans kept jamming them with more papers from WM, Wachovia, GE...It's been like this for almost two years and they are still hiring people to handle the ever-stronger deal flow! It's like what Doug Nolan said "the 34th month blowoff top in housing market." Amazing. She also got interviews with Ambac and XL with their structured finance investment team but I talked her out of it -- at least she could switch to the accounting side when things do blow up. But it's just amazing to see how long this craze in exotic paper has lasted.

#20 phatbubble

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:16 PM

rog, was thinking of your trade while watching the tape after i came back from the winegettin place. at 1:30ish you posted something about 2+ hrs left till expiration....what about tomorrow - am i missing something?

BARE: yeah. or, sort of. some bradleys are differenter than others, but not all THAT different. the bigger differences come with geo vs helio, and 360 degrees vs not (you posted an amanita link at one point - yes? there are four of em there). i've been dying to retrofit a bradley, build the perfect beast so to speak, but don't have the right software for it.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#21 longOnUranus

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:17 PM

This Eifuku thing just totally cracks me up since you mentioned it a month or so ago. Note that the author of the memo did not leave a name (Will E. Banger) or a forwarding address (Rue de Ruin, Nagasaki, Japan). I have a feeling he's face down somewhere in a bowl of rice, skewered with a Samuri sword.

Chad's comments re: hedge funds are a great read. Perhaps moreso than the PPT, their M.O. is largely resonsible for the "atypical" bear market we have seen and lack of capitulation. When all is said and done, probably circa 2012, it is this "investment" structure will be identified with prolonging the bear market much longer than it would have otherwise lasted. However, since this "new economic paradigm" has occured with AG's blessing, they are both guilty.

The Waterfall Scenario is the only reasonable outcome of the collapse of such a highly leveraged situation. I can envision a move from 6500 to 3000 over a period of a week once things get going.

#22 The End

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:19 PM

Phat,

If Rog was reffering to spx options. Today was the last day you could trade those. Stock options expire tomorrow.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#23 longOnUranus

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:27 PM

TE, Phat - current month series SPX options are not tradeable after the close on Thursday, but do not expire until Saturday. Thus one is captive for a day, on current month options only, held to the viscissitudes of Mr. Market. I found this out the hard way a while back.

#24 Pretzel Logic

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:28 PM

Can't wait for the OpEx noise to end. This market has been insanely difficult to trade. I'm still holding my shorts, hedged with calls (short from 930, hedged at 820, so I feel fairly safe here). I'm not trying to game this mess at all right now. Too much static in the charts.

Still expecting a breakdown in the relatively near future, though.
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday

#25 The End

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:31 PM

Lou,

I understand options expire on Saterday following the third Friday of the month. But, for all intents and purposes they "expire" on thursday for spx and friday for all others. (naked). :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#26 Direwolf

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:38 PM

Mark,,,check out the action in CFC today...melted down to the 50ema and found some temporary support....looks real ugly with the HUGE volume today. short more?

dw

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:38 PM

Sold the march 900's at 838. :grin:

I felt weird being "not short enough" so I bought the 895 march's near the close. That could turn out to be a mistake. :(  We shall see.

How did my fellow stoolies do today?

Down 2.1% today. I'm up 11% on equity on this current expedition which began Jan. 10th. The MS upgrade dojied XLNX yesterday. Volume today was extremely low. Moel semiconductor upgrade was today. They "believe valuation is reasonable." :lol: (see CBS marketslush article below) They have probably corraled most of the sheeple into the gulch and will hopefully pull out the gatling guns tomorrow. Then again . . . .
Sure would like some leg of lamb for dinner tomorrow evening.

http://cbs.marketwat.....93B67B5AF452}

#28 Yaryman

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:41 PM

TXN buying back up to 18 million shares to cover stock options.

From the latest S&P stock report on TXN:

"value of $10,000 invested (in TXN) 5 years ago: $11,308"

That gives you a whopping 2.26% rate of return on money invested in TXN.

It's surprising they didn't hand out more options with such staggering growth and profits. :grin:

#29 The End

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:42 PM

Tanks for sharing Mousey.

Prztl,

Good for you man. :wink2:
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#30 TheDeepBlueSea

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:42 PM

Great post again Mark. The structured exotica scheme is still going strong -- my wife works for a major accounting firm in their structured finance group, offering accounting and valuation service to wall struck underwriting those CDOs and ABS deals. She has never been busier, overtime in the evening and during the weekends are rules not exceptions now, and the CSFBs and the Lehmans kept jamming them with more papers from WM, Wachovia, GE...It's been like this for almost two years and they are still hiring people to handle the ever-stronger deal flow! It's like what Doug Nolan said "the 34th month blowoff top in housing market." Amazing. She also got interviews with Ambac and XL with their structured finance investment team but I talked her out of it -- at least she could switch to the accounting side when things do blow up. But it's just amazing to see how long this craze in exotic paper has lasted.

Glad you talk her out of XL Capital.

It's a POS stock swirling 'round the Bermuda Triangle bowl.

Not hard to tell that I'm short XL :lol:





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