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The Bachelorette

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#166 Guest_BEARDRECH_*

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Posted 21 February 2003 - 03:20 AM

OK, let's say inflation takes root in the good old US of A. Do we really think that the 24% idle manufacturing capacity is just going to stay idle? or is it going to be put to work to compete-down any strength in pricing? Kind of like when you get your rear-wheel drive stuck in the snow. Every time you think you got the sucker free you slide back into the muck.

Seriously, wasn't that big jump almost entirely attributable to oil prices? This is good for the economy?


Here is the report in its entirety. You are correct that most of the increase was due to energy prices, but there were certainly other factors contributing to the rise which looked downright inflationary.

Producer Price Index News Release text

When you talk about unused capacity, you arent talking about inflation in commodity prices. If it cost $100 to buy before and now it costs $110, while your input costs rise from $80 to $90 you arent making any more than the $20 profit. Also, if the demand is not there to increase what is currently being produced at these prices, you certainly wouldnt ratchet up production when input prices are higher.

i have the perfect solution to problem of underutilization of manufacturing facilities;simply write me a letter with self adressed envelope amd ill mail you my plan--
yours truly Smoot & Hawley

#167 BAREister


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Posted 21 February 2003 - 03:58 AM

Y'all SEE??? The BARE TOLD yew he hASS Two Screws Loose!!!

"But the nightmare deflationary collapse scenario is off the table for now. "

HRFF predicts, flatly, that these words will come back to haunt Mr TwoScrewsLoose aka MH, perhaps, sooner, rather than later.

No, Mr TwoScews. Tain't off the table at all. Can't write it off quite so glibly, quite so soon, quite YET.

Why the jury's still out!

You'd make a LOUSY lawyer, Mr TwoScrews, putting on a case and moving FUR a directed verdict on the basis of eviDUNCE like THAT!!!

Tain't met your burden of proof, old? fellow.

Don't worry!!! IF HRFF makes it to the NYC gathering, he'll buy you a drink or two or three which will make eating your own words that much easier.
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#168 Jimbo


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Posted 21 February 2003 - 04:54 AM


Mark - Trista just picked the Fireman to make herself look good. She will quietly dump him after the show.


Still bullish on the street his latest article is the usual dont miss the bottom broken record.

The bear case still rules.

#169 phatbubble


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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:13 AM


You will know when the new bull is really close by three things.

1.  Capitulation--Large volume to the down size
2.  Divident Yield-High around 5%
3.  P/E-7 to 15

Just keep an eye for these three things


what oilman said. until that happens, the big bull moves will cover the majority of their ground in about 6 trading days (see sep 01, jul 02, oct 02).

you never know, some company on the Nasty could make a surprise announcement that they've perfected that Perpetual Motion Machine with the falling cat and the falling piece of buttered toast strapped back-to-back....otherwise, i wouldn't go 200% IT long at gunpoint. look for 90-90 downside days; for more, see paul desmond's "identifying bear market bottoms and new bull markets", which won the 2002 charles h. dow award (to get a copy go to this page at lowry's reports and enter your email address - they'll send a username/pwd/URL to access it. there are probably pdfs of it floating around elsewhere too).
Quod Severis Metes

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You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.


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Posted 21 February 2003 - 05:46 AM

Sorry if that is too political Doc, I just thought it was interesting enough to share.

It just confirms how despicable Murdoch is and that The Sun
gets its history facts from listening to Jay Leno's monologues.

#171 machinehead


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Posted 21 February 2003 - 08:59 AM

Y'all SEE??? The BARE TOLD yew he hASS Two Screws Loose!!!

"But the nightmare deflationary collapse scenario is off the table for now. "

HRFF predicts, flatly, that these words will come back to haunt Mr TwoScrewsLoose aka MH, perhaps, sooner, rather than later.

Well, Counsellor BAREasster, you can make those words haunt me even more by becoming a party to the bet that yobob and I are cooking up now. You have till March 31 to get on board.

It's a potential vehicle (not a car, since you wouldn't be seen behind the wheel of one) for you to recover your stinging losses from our last bet ... something about the price of gold, wasn't it? :wink2:
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