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#136 BAREister

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 02:05 AM

am i only only one thats looking around and thinking that paying off my piddly $55,000 mortgage at 6% is not a bad use of some of my funds?

Bare,

No, but you are definitely in the minority.

Tig ol, BARE was quoting someone else. He wasn't posing that Q butt, rather, answering it.
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#137 rayok

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 02:16 AM

So HRFF disagrees w WyndySrf - we've had savage sector rotation the whole way down, and pressure mounts relentlessly. Who do YOU know who's game to plunge into stocks with the same enthused WRECKless abandon of the late 1990's today?

Hey, don't forget about GTNWORSE!!! :P

#138 Mr. Beal

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 02:43 AM

We've relied on FUReign capital. We're living on the kindness of strangers and have been FUR ages. That's where Wyndy should be focusing most as a LYNCHpin to a steep plunge.
SNOT Joe Six-pack, so much. If Joe Sixpack is the woodpile, the furry FUReigners are the GASOLINE.


BAREAss-ter

Perhaps this is the type of selling that can BAREget selling?

"leading insurers down on worries over a possible cash call in the sector"

http://biz.yahoo.com...n_stocks_8.html


To be true to my sig.... "Now that the foreigners have put all this money in the US for years, its time we gave it back".

Hello Al, would you mind if we drink from your hose?

Ebb and flow..

Beal

#139 Bizarro-Greenspan

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 02:56 AM

GTDM!

#140 ChainGangOf22

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 04:26 AM

This is from the article Mr. Beal linked:

"Shares in Prudential slid 6.9 percent as talk swirled that the insurance giant may tap shareholders for cash."

Does anybody know if this means that shareholders actually would have to come up with cash payments? I know that can happen in a partnership. Sorry if this is a dumb question, but that's what the quote makes it sound like. But I guess if that were true, Prudential shares would be down a lot more than 6.9 percent.

#141 Jimbo

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 05:00 AM

PRUDENTIAL CASH

Dear Chain Gang.

It is my understanding that Prudential shareholders are much like rubber trees and can be tapped for cash. A cut is made just below the wallet and cash oozes out in a sticky green stream.

Actuallly methinks they are talking about a rights issue to shareholders- which the shareholder of course does not have to take up.
timoleon

#142 phatbubble

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 05:12 AM

non-crapeuro viewers missed a good moment this morning, when one of the hosts said something like "amazing that we got that rally at the end of trading, bringing the DOW up to close smack (whacking desk) at 8000." this was followed by a brief, undisguised chuckle about the 'stock protection team'.
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#143 Drano

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 06:05 AM

Just for the record, and knowing that it's meaningless, but nevertheless interesting (and mostly just to show that STOOL NEVER SLEEPS):

as of 5 a.m. eastern time, futures have been steadily sinking all night. SPX currently .36 over fair value, Nas is -.82. [Edit: oops, the jam just started. Can I time it or what.]

Not that I expect these values to be anywhere near there by the open.

It's kind of creepy to think that there is probably always somebody awake and wandering the streets of Stoolville. 11 users on this thread right now, ha ha.
Of course I'm caustic!

#144 ChainGangOf22

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 06:29 AM

PRUDENTIAL CASH

Dear Chain Gang.

It is my understanding that Prudential shareholders are much like rubber trees and can be tapped for cash.  A cut is made just below the wallet and cash oozes out in a sticky green stream.

Actuallly methinks they are talking about a rights issue to shareholders- which the shareholder of course does not have to take up.

LOL! Thanks Jimbo. I guess lack of sleep is making me dopey. :rolleyes:

#145 phatbubble

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:06 AM

i did some more work with scam week stats (with 20 weeks of data, jun 01 - jan 03) and found something that was a bit of a shocker.

first, the unsurprising stuff:

-weeks in which a down day W was followed by a down day TH: 9 of 15

-weeks in which a down day W was followed by down days TH and F: 4 of 9

-weeks in which either or M or T was an up day: 17 of 20 (all but jul/aug 02 and the week after 9/11)

*yawn*.

ok - here's what was a surprise. a summation of daily scam week SPX moves looks like this

M -12
T +68
W -105
TH -70
F -87

which suggests that, far from prices holding steady into and on friday opex, the second-biggest average drop actually takes place that day.

stranger yet, from the beginning of the first sample scam week (jun 01) to the end of the last (jan 03), the SPX dropped a total of 363 points. so, from the figures above, a net 262 pt drop took place during the W-F of the various scam weeks (three days out of the month), and the other net 101 pt drop took place during the whole remainder of the month.

avg change in SPX every day that isn't W-F of scam week: -0.3 pts
avg change in SPX on a W, TH, or F of scam week: -4.3 pts

the SPX enjoys a drop during the last 3 days of a scam week that is 14.7 times larger than days that aren't the last 3 days of a scam week. :huh:

does this surprise anyone else?
Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

#146 The End

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:24 AM

An email exchange with Jim Curry: from yesterday.



I wanted to short some at 850 - because
#1: in going back to recent history with the 180 day and 360 day cycles
I noted this:
a. that usually a weekly high is taken out
b. that the MOST the 30 day cycle ever carried above the prior week's
high
was 18 points. 843 (last week's high) plus 18 points is 861
c. it usually only went up 5-10 points above the prior week's high
before topping,
which is why I wanted to take some at 850, then possibly add just a
bit higher
d. if it goes above 861 by too much then the short side may be wrong -
at least
statistically. this does agree with the Neely stop

#2: the 15 day cycle will cause the top - and when the 180 and 360 are
down, it usually will top in 5 trading days or less

#3. so what if we get above resistance? then one of my larger cycles is
phased wrong. this can happen, because phasing (finding the low) for a
BIG cycle is harder than finding a low for a 30 or 60 or 15 day cycle.

#4. get above the 50 day average and we have to forget shorts and try
longs.

#5. 15 day cycle target to 859-810 SPX so we could get up there

hope that helps!
Many thanks,
Jim



> The end wrote:
>
> I appreciate the heads up to short this pig at the 850 area. As the
> 845 target you elluded to yesterday is being tagged, do you think we
> go up again? Neely went 50% short at 850 (stop 861) and thinks the spx
> will be in the low 700's two weeks after this rally is over.
>
> Any comment on that.
>
> TIA
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#147 Ned38

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:30 AM

Phat:
That is quite facinating

#148 torah man

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 07:38 AM

Just for the record, and knowing that it's meaningless, but nevertheless interesting (and mostly just to show that STOOL NEVER SLEEPS):

as of 5 a.m. eastern time, futures have been steadily sinking all night. SPX currently .36 over fair value, Nas is -.82. [Edit: oops, the jam just started. Can I time it or what.]

Not that I expect these values to be anywhere near there by the open.

It's kind of creepy to think that there is probably always somebody awake and wandering the streets of Stoolville. 11 users on this thread right now, ha ha.

the jam actually helps. gap and crap is a more powerfull move than slide drip drip

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 09:43 AM

for those who do not own Metastock, can somebody tell me whether it is otherwise possible to get a CMAP of NYSE volume (similar to today's anals)? like on www.stockcharts.com or something similar?

The short answer is - no.

First of all, StockCharts.com does not have "NYSE Total Volume" readily accessible to its users. It only has its components:

$NYUPV NYSE - Volume Advancing
$NYDNV NYSE - Volume Declining
$NYUDU NYSE - Volume Unchanged

Now, I can get cajole a "NYSE Total Volume" chart out of it - but it involves some, uhm, unconventional means and is not recommended. Besides, it doesn't matter anyway, because of the next few points.

Second, StockCharts.com does not support a centered moving average (CMA) indicator. In fact, no free charting service that I know does. It might have something to the fact that the indicator isn't very fool-proof - for instance, it doesn't make sense for periods that are an even number.

Third, the CMA projection ("cmap") is Doc's guesswork and incorporates his experience doing this kind of stuff for decades. You can't get it from an automatic charting service.

The best I can do (see the attached image) is a simple 29-dma and a non-live chart which I can't even tell you how I have obtained.

The best you can easily do is a volume-only chart with a 29-dma on it:

Posted Image

And no, I can't turn off the volume bars and leave only the MA on this one.

Regards,
Vesselin

Attached Images

  • vol.gif


#150 rayok

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Posted 20 February 2003 - 03:07 PM

pension woes





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