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#1 wndysrf

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 04:09 PM

Mark’s Market Commentary – February 19, 2003

High probability of a top put in today on the Supermodels, after a bunch of touts came out on the sector. But where is Dan “The Greaseman” Niles? Still worried that he hasn’t shown up yet to defend his $35 price on INTC when it was trading at the exact top of $22 on Dec. 2. And I guess too much time has passed since March 2002 when NVLS and KLAC were “Action Alerted” by two houses who put $75 - $80 price targets on them. Not ruling out another small leg up for some OE sweeping and spiking, but its close enough.

Notice how even rating agencies like S & P are now joining in on the deafening roar of the Matrix Agents. They forecast a 5%-10% growth rate on the equipment sector today. When are these guys going to get arrested? Along with Moody’s, Briefing.com, Thomson First Call, Morningstar, and all the rest? Who knows?

Notice how the Riverboaters are even more infatuated with the bras, garters, thongs, and perfume than the girls themselves. How is it that the semi equipment companies constantly get Riverboated at faster speeds than the chipmakers themselves?

Robert Folsom at EWT made an excellent case about the bullish psychology, which exists today. All news or price action is spun as “bullish” or a “buying opportunity” by the Agents manning the bullhorns and loudspeakers, even after 35 months of bear market action. The fact that psychology has yet to turn so late in a bear market is truly amazing, therefore; the possibility of much lower prices in the future can be expected.

Today’s tape provides more examples:

AT&T tops Dow gainers; investors hooked (T) by Allen Wan
“AT&T (T) is rising 4.3 percent to $18.51 and has emerged as the biggest percentage gainer on the battered Dow Wednesday. anal cysts say the telecom giant is benefiting from expectations of a favorable ruling Thursday when the Federal Communications Commission votes on whether to eliminate, or more likely scale back, the rules that require Baby Bell local phone companies to let rivals use their networks at cheap wholesale rates.”

We will know that a long term bottom has occurred in the stock market when we start reading a different perspective.

“AT & T is bouncing 4.3% after briefly touching a double bottom as short sellers take profits. The stock has collapsed 36% this year and is over 75% off its all time highs set in April 2000. The stock market remains treacherous. Over 18 Dow stocks have disappeared from the index in the last 35 years, either due to bankruptcy, acquisition, or massive price failure. Investors should carefully monitor anal cysts’ recommendations on this stock, and avoid it if too many are still rating it a “buy”.

The Wall Struck Journal editorial today sums up the concern surrounding the two largest players in the Pyramid: FRE and FNM.

“Fan and Fred refused to to register their common stock with the SEC. They eventually agreed, but then refused to disclose information about the trillions in mortgage backed securities they issue. After months of fierce resistance, they finally agreed.”

“Next up: The OMB reviewed the risks of holding $797 billion in mortgage-backeds (62% of their combined portfolios) and speculated whether a limit was appropriate to cut the risk to taxpayers.”

“Then, the OFHEO report on systemic risk. Fan and Fred’s debt is everywhere-held by U.S banks, big and small, by foreign banks, by institutional investors, pension funds, and individuals.”

Mark’s Translation:

The Paper Pyramid is holding up under the illusion that “debt” is “money”. And this supposed “money” has been round tripped ad infinitum inside the Pyramid to creat more “debt” masquerading as “money”. It is a secret virus. Infected everywhere.


“The implied government guarantee insures a high credit rating no matter how reckless their leverage or other practices might be. Leverage running between 29-to-1 to 31-to-1. The two companies at the center of America’s financial system running with high leverage, big derivative positions, inadequate disclosure, and exposing the economy to systemic risk.”

Mark’s Translation:

Doug Noland’s Private Apocalypse has grown to epic proportions, far beyond the boundaries of normal scope and comprehension. The entire Multilevel Marketing Pyramid, held together by a thread, by two gargantuan monsters. At any time, the hyperspeed of credit creation with no limits and the absence of fractional reserves, could become unglued and start to spin the Atomic Particle Acceleration into reverse. The virtous circle of Pyramid Recruitment turns into a vicious cycle of defections.


As we have seen throughout this bear market, the liquidity cycles have kept enough ammo around for the Gang of 22 to jam the market and prop things up. Furthermore, the refinance boom has kept Joe Sixpack from cashing in his retirement investments to meet debt payments or make his family payroll.

The key lynchpin of this bear market is Joe Sixpack. When will he sell? Not until he is forced to. For a brief 3 week period last July, we saw what forced redemptions can do to the stock market. Everything gets sold, especially the liquid big caps. Back then, I believe we had some moderate redemptions from Joe Sixpack, but for the most part, the selling was due to voluntary selling by the mutual funds, bracing for a possible climatic selling wave.

Eventually Joe Sixpack will start to feel the heat and will be forced to start missing payments on his zero down, zero percent loans. Then the Structured Finance Pyramid will start breaking down. If Joe has to start dipping into his retirement, then the funds will be forced into some involuntary selling. But that won’t really start until Joe Sixpack starts stampeding down the stairs of Chicago’s E2 club.

Once the stampede starts, then the pension funds will finally realize that the November “rebalancing” the last two years was a mistake, and will start to unwind those “double down” stock purchases. Purchases made in order to “catch up” from the mounting deficits.

But for now, no real money is leaving the stock market. The market continues to be gamed daily by the HedgeHogs and options speculators, hence the light volume. Money managers continue to “put money to work” during rallies, and “build up cash” after market reversals. Up, down, up, down. Rally, then failure, rally, then failure. Its just noise, and the volatililty will continue as long as trillions of dollars remain parked in these 6000+ funds.

Why else would Wachovia buy Prudential Securities’ retail brokerage firm? Obviously, things are not bad out there in brokerage land. Wachovia certainly doesn’t see any need to pull back from adding to its boiler room operations.

When will the consumer start a forced liquidation of his 401(k) account? Not until he has to. Not until he starts getting behind on his payments. Not until he loses his job. Right now, we see no signs of this activity yet. Retail spending by the wife is still full speed ahead. Female consumers have lightened up on buying closet additions at Home Depot (HD) and Lowe’s (LOW) and have scaled back the buying of kitchen and houseware clutter from Target (TGT) and Wal-Mart (WMT). Now they have turned to the latest mini-skirt and bellbottom fashions at Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) and Hot Topic (HOTT). Anybody see those hip hugger jeans with the Keds-style lace up in front instead of a zipper? The refinance lotto ticket which comes in every 6 months continues to be on call to bail out credit card debts, and/or hot money “debt consolidation” loans from Primerica.

Perhaps one sign emerged today, the downgrade of MBNA and the increase in delinquencies. But the same happened to Capital One over 7 months ago, and so far, it’s been hanging in there, yet to make new lows.

Here in California, I continue to see an explosion in new car sales. Last year, it was the BMW 330, Porsche Boxter, and the Ford Excursion. Now, I see hordes of brand new Hummer H2’s and Lexus GS430’s rolling around. Still with the paper dealer plates. And not the “base model”, either. Most are the top of the line, black on black, full option package. This morning I saw five brand new H2’s on my way to work. I managed to take a picture of one in front of my favorite coffee shop. And across the street, at the bagel shop, a brand new Lexus. Black, of course.

Who are these people? See next posts below:
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#2 wndysrf

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 04:13 PM

The 2003 Hummer H2 is exhibit A.

Owned by a 34-year old Collateralized Mortgage Obligation anal cyst at the Los Angeles offices of Goldman Sachs. The last 3 years have been a bonanza. Really not much to analyze, since the spread trade game has been a unidirectional, no-brainer bet leveraging off of Al Green’s permanently anchored 44-year low interest rates. The scope of his analysis has been to create reports to top management on how to use the new Economic Derivatives to offload risk in these arbitrages so that Goldman’s spread trading activities can be accelerated, on margin, with no risk. This guy is convinced that the Credit Cycle has been repealed, therefore, he has the ultimate job security.

Currently in escrow to purchase a brand new Hermosa Beach townhouse for a cool $1.3 million. Currently scheduled for a 3-week vacation to New Zealand, out of the way of any terrorist activity. Currently scheduled to visit Victoria’s Secret on his lunch hour to buy his 28-year old girlfriend the latest satin and lace exotica, charged on his MBNA VISA with a $35,000 credit limit. All purchases at 1.9% until billing cycle ending on November 1.

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#3 wndysrf

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 04:13 PM

The 2003 Lexus GS430 is Exhibit B.

Owned by a 29-year old skinny blonde Assistant Producer working a Raleigh Studios, home of Fox Entertainment’s reality TV shows such as “Joe Millionaire”. The last 3 years have been a bonanza. Reality television has tapped into the psyche of the overleveraged 30-somethings, who somehow believe that the MTV Spring Break Economy will never end, and that the “revenue growth” in the “creative arena” really has no limit as long as Wall Street and Hollywood continue to push the boundaries of excess. Advertising dollars, anxious to reach the Borrow and Spend Consumer, have been heavily flowing to Fox these days.

Based on the acceleration of the advertising mania targeted at the demographic which is most overextended, she believes she has the ultimate job security. Currently renting a $2,400/mo. beach villa. Roommate is a part-time exotic dancer who works weekends only in Vegas. Cannot decide whether to make the big plunge to buy a $1.3 million beach condo or to wait 2 more years to see if she ends up marrying one of the 3 “writer/producer” guys she is sleeping with simultaneously. So far, no offers. Great body, great face, but breasts are substandard. Currently on the waiting list for an appointment at the Beverly Hills Breast Augmentation Center, now offering zero down, zero interest, no payments until 2005, courtesy of Household International. Offer ends April 1.

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#4 GregFokker

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:12 PM

Half way through and just sprayed snot all over my laptop screen! Holding you responsible, Mark :grin:

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#5 fxfox

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:24 PM

Great body, great face, but breasts are substandard. Currently on the waiting list for an appointment at the Beverly Hills Breast Augmentation Center, now offering zero down, zero interest, no payments until 2005, courtesy of Household International. Offer ends April 1.

MONSTER STYLE LLOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

Mark, you are a genious! :)
'patriot' is formed with 'patria' and 'idiot'

#6 GregFokker

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:31 PM

Mrs. Fokker (Fokker's mom) is a travel agent. She just received a note from KLM and Northwest apologizing for any cancellations, because flights are being interrupted to transport US military personnel.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#7 ShamPoo

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:32 PM

Mark’s back and back in farce.

MU canned 10% of its work farce today. Must be all the improved productivity. Getting in gear for the 7% projected increase in PC sales later in the year.

Hummer=dumber. People in LA need these for all the 4WD roads in town. Masturbation mobiles.

#8 The End

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:37 PM

bought march 900 puts at 850+ today and bought 895 march's at 58.5 after the close. B)
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.


--Waters

#9 BigWave

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:40 PM

Fed Repos to prop up the market- $15,000,000

New H2- $65,000.00

Subscription to the Anals- $19.29

Mark to Market- priceless...

#10 MrHanky

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:43 PM

excellent mark...love my daily dose of laughter!

today was more of the same crap...slowly let them bleed until the last 10 or 20 minutes.today they started early with the gap up starting @3:15.

the 45 minute ramp job did the following damage:

dow up 65

nascrap up 12

spx up 7

ge,ebay and amgn went out at the highs.I have a feeling ebay and amgn have 1 huge pop upwards before they come down to earth.

totally flat for the first time since mid jan.had a margin call due in 2 days and did not want to take chances by selling for a loss then.took my measly 3% profit and cashed out on the close.(usually when I cover it is the sign that you guys should go short @200%!).will short into the next pop if we see it,hard to tell which way we go the rest of the week.

Nothing


#11 wndysrf

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:55 PM

Heads Up!!

Dan "The Greasman" Niles on Kudlow and Cramer tonight:

Cramer Article on SOX
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#12 Drano

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 05:59 PM

Heads Up!!

Dan "The Greasman" Niles on Kudlow and Cramer tonight:

Cramer Article on SOX

The link requires that you be a member of The Street.com.

I'm shocked....SHOCKED!....to learn that Mark has a subscription there! :lol:
Of course I'm caustic!

#13 GregFokker

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 06:04 PM

Deniles upgrading the SUX tonight is all we need to assure a waterfall decline starting 5 minutes after the open tomorrow.

...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech

Naturally we believe the govt numbers... and Boobus Americanus sleepwalks off the edge of the energy-crisis cliff clutching his shares of "Crisco", Yoohoo and GooGah munching on his Yum Yums and Ho Hos. Future historians will have a hell of a time figuring out what the hell Americanus neanderthalus was thinking and exactly what brought on his sudden demise... - Henny Penny

Well, good night everyone. I gotta go lube up for tomorrow's regular end-of-week Gold Slapdown and Stock Index Bear Punishment Rally Weekend Greenprint. ...Probably another Shock-and-Awe Gap-Up-Open and Wire-to-Wire Meltup Runaway Bull Charge Mo-Mo Spike to Fresh New All-Time Lifetime Highs, culminating in a 4:15 yelping scalded dog runoff with panic short-covering and legal not-held bad double fills due to fast market conditions, plus quote system freeze-ups and trading platform lock-outs along the way. *yawn* typical gov't Friday. - Shorty


#14 BigWave

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 06:04 PM

Heads Up!!

Dan "The Greasman" Niles on Kudlow and Cramer tonight:

Cramer Article on SOX

The link requires that you be a member of The Street.com.

I'm shocked....SHOCKED!....to learn that Mark has a subscription there! :lol:

Gotta do it to get Fleck.

#15 wndysrf

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Posted 19 February 2003 - 06:04 PM

Drano:

RealMoney subscription for Fleck's daily Market Rap only. I'll probably drop it since he really hasn't helped me in trading. Too expensive.

Rev Shark DePorre hasn't really helped either. Like Buddha says, great for after the fact analysis, but poor for determining future market direction.

Cramer was falling all over himself about that Morgan Stanley tout on the semi's today. Telling everyone to get on the AMAT train ASAP....

Sorry about the bad link.

Listen to the interview with Niles. Most likely a great sell signal.

I bet a gap up tomorrow and immediate reversal on the SOX.
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