175 replies to this topic
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:29 PM
I enjoy and find value in your forensic observations and cartoon political takes.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:33 PM
Mark and Buddha, please don't let the riff raff get to you. It's just riff raff. You guys are loved here, and it's a shame to let the vocal minority of boos and hisses from the peanut gallery deprive your loyal audience of your wit and wisdom.
...A declining spenglerian carnival of Colossaalism united with Inflation where the numbers one through 10 are forever banished as worthless arithmetical detritus from a bygone age... - Beardrech
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:34 PM
Japan over the last 12 years or so has been the great empirical test of Keynsian dogma, er, economics.
A laboratory experiment using real people and a real economy.
What's the result. A decade of economic stagnation and regression.
The real return on the Japanese gov't bond trades lower than any bond in the last 200 years.
The overnight cal rate is negative!
And, fwiw, I read in the Nihon Keizai Shimbun last year that if you had yen-cost-averaged the Nikkei index over the last 50 years, you'd now be in the red.
And despite all this evidence, the FOMC and all The Usual Suspects are repeating the same experiment here. Only the experiment is an order of magnitude larger.
At least the Japanese started out as the world's largest creditors.
Here they're starting out as the world's largest debtors.
[Btw, I was one of the posters who gave the buddha a hard time. Irrespective of what he or I think of Ms. Rice, his racist diatribe against her struck me as way out of line. As did his ongoing politicization of the discussion. Doc seemed to agree by deleting those posts.]
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:35 PM
Just wanted to add that I was at a small dinner party over the weekend. A young lawyer couple showed up. They make perhaps 250 or 300k max between them but live like a royal family. Borrow and spend. After 2 hours of conversation about toys,cars,home size etc. I was failing to digest my food and had to excuse myself. Sign of the times. This will be a very long Bear. People live recklessly on margin because they can get away with it so easily. Brand new 5,000 square foot home, heated pool, new BMW,new Mercedes, ... who cares? He wanted to know about the Markets? I told him to preserve his capital first. On the way home I thought to myself, "what capital? that guy is living on borrowed time"
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:43 PM
Buddha- I love your commentary- please excuse my critique over the weekend. You've earned your poetic license-to-kill. Keep up the good work.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:44 PM
As the market draws to a close each day, I tighten the rubber hose around my arm and smack my flesh... looking for a perky vein. I then pull down the menu to Mark To Market... squeezing out bubbles... admire your avatar for 4.8 seconds... position needle... and mainline your stream of consciousness, baby! Ahhhhh.... the staccato wit really soothes my brain as I nod my head in agreement. This junkie won't kick easily. What am I to do... go to thestreet.com for Methadone? Bah and triple bah! I guess I shouldn't be that surprised... eras are ending all around me. Turning and turning in the widening gyre, the center doesn't seem to want to hold. The falcon is dissing the falconer and the blood-dimmed tide is soon to be loosed. (The Second Coming -- W.B. Yeats) I'm hoping you'll find inspiration and continue to raise your fist. If not, thanks for the temporary port in a rough sea of bullshit.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:48 PM
How about a new show? Joe 15 billionaire (for a day) staring Al himself.
Whatever you do Mark, its understandable and you have already made yourself known and respected.
Waiting for reality to set in is a fools game. No one wants to face reality.
Hope buddy Buddha is on to the timing of the snake oil sales people.
Fiat funnies continue.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:49 PM
"Scene of the Crap"
"Joe Friday, POS"
"The Chocolate Files"
or my favorite:
"Calling Dr. Stool: Code Brown!!!"
Mark, I've actually traded somma your trades. Anyone who JUDGES anyone on this site needs some serious mirror time. No one is judging you expert or otherwise. Please keep posting.
Edit - PC killed PruBear, Doc does his best and, in a site like this, bad taste is relative. Buddha, come back when some of these brown noses clear out.
Edit - this rally is God's gift to bears.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:53 PM
not to worry the stock mkt is looking beyond this: "We just learned, for example, that bankruptcies hopped up 5.7% in 2002 to a record 1.5 million. Meanwhile, consumer credit retracted by the largest amount since the Federal Reserve began keeping tabs on it in 1968. Retail sales for January were a robust 2%, far better than the expected 0.6%...but much of that increase can be chalked up to skyrocketing gas prices and the lowest oil supplies in the past 28 years.
""Pretty bubbleheads preen daily on our financial networks, playing the shill to Wall Street and Washington in order to lure unsuspecting Americans into buying insanely overvalued stocks. The great market exchanges, once prudent arenas of investment where the engine of capitalism traded value for value, have become sham casinos staggering under decades of massive Fed created debt and lurching into oblivion on the greater fool theory. Yet our high level bureaucrats, led by Alan Greenspan, exhort all Americans to consume still more of their seed corn and seek still more fools." N. Hultberg
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:53 PM
Imho, I think we are near a top. Positioned out of most March contracts and into April for the same price or less. Gotta love these rallies or get swept up by em' I did not go long and won't for a while.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 06:57 PM
Balls to post your positions and trades, whether good, bad or indifferent. Balls to say "no more" for now.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 07:03 PM
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 07:09 PM
Frankly, I understand about the trades, but that's not why I read the thread... your writing is priceless... I don't know how you keep managing to come up with all these twisted scenarios, but I guess living in L.A. is a good start on all that...
I truly have had some good laughs courtesy of the pearls of your imagination...
It's fun to bring a little life into the hum/drum jamtoast World of equity manure-ities trading... You do it well.
Posted 18 February 2003 - 07:15 PM
Sox Bear, I don't think loU meant skin color by way of "brown noses". But he can answer for himself.
Buddha, I was also at a dinner over the weekend. Couple of people at the table were IT types who work at a couple of brokerages - one at Citi and the other at Lord Abbett (sp?). The latter said that mutual fund inflows were what was keeping them in business. Their stock brokerage business was down but were seeing around $50M+ daily/weekly inflows into the MF side. I was too busy concentrating on the wine as the rest of the conversation was pathetic, so the numbers and timeframes could be a little off...
Posted 18 February 2003 - 07:27 PM
Sox Bear - I missed that interpretation when I read it.
Not trying to be hostile. Come back if you like.
"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."
"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano
"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004
"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan
[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss
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