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#91 Metamucil

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 08:03 PM

Rich, killer Gann charts! Nice work!


The 7- and 13-week cycles are pals now.

I like the NDX break of the 150dMA support and mid-bollinger band. 977 was critical. Keep an eye on this number. It needs to get as far away as possible. This nasty index has been showing too much strength lately. Will talk about some ?pseudo-bullish chart formations in tech....another time.



SOX proxy; look for a breach of 275, the mid-bolly point.



The SPX looks great; the 7,13 wk trading cycles are pals again.



BKX proxy; some financial blowups are probably dead ahead. The monthly view is below the daily.



AWESOME!!
I bow in respect.................
I have individual bank shorts on C and BAC....since many weeks ago.


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#92 Metamucil

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 08:20 PM

The BTK index is crumbling quite nicely; below Gann 45s on the daily.

BTK daily



The main problem I am experiencing with BBH (short since $150) is AMGN. It has become like EBAY.....concrete. AMGN has morphed into an acyclic monster money pit, like EBAY. Better to take PileDriver's approach and hit the turds in bioland. I grabbed NBIX yesterday....and closed some of my BBH positions for this next expedition.

BBH daily



NBIX daily


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#93 richmtn

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 11:22 PM

Great charts guys. It's always nice to get confirmation from other people work.
FeedFool and PrtzlLogic seem intent on giving the bulls a giant wedgie. I think you two may win the timing award on this one. B)
Meta thanks for the heads up:

the NDX break of the 150dMA support and mid-bollinger band. 977 was critical. Keep an eye on this number.


I'm playing Citi. Here's the chart.

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#94 richmtn

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 11:24 PM

I jumped the gun on IBM. A good entry point would be south of 76.

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#95 richmtn

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 11:27 PM

Here is a very pretty chart of the DOWAGER.
Weekly Dow.

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#96 richmtn

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 11:30 PM

Wednesday night's Gann Fan.
A break below 45 degrees would be sweet.

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#97 DONOTKNOWSHIT

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Posted 26 February 2003 - 11:48 PM

Could you give me a chart and your comments on FCS--fairchild semiconductor, I think it comes down hard. But, IDONOTKNOWSHIT

Thanks for any info

#98 PileDriver

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 12:22 AM

Rich I did not get anything extra out from 9 months cycle chart.


There is very little upside left. Boyz are in distribution mode before the drop. This week widow dressing will stop the rot then real fun will begin next week. I will be looking to short high tick ramp job on Friday and final shorts on Tuesday.

thanks for heads-up. I'm fully loaded since Dec/Jan with comfortable profit cushion but its nice to set expectations for that little rapids ride before hitting the waterfalls.

#99 richmtn

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 12:24 AM

Could you give me a chart and your comments on FCS--fairchild semiconductor, I think it comes down hard. But, IDONOTKNOWSHIT

Thanks for any info

If you are talking to me you've mistaken me for someone who knows something. Maybe someone else can give you an opinion.
But I can give you a chart of it's 10-13 week cycle. It is in a weak up phase. Some of the other cycles are going up some are going down. Mixed cyclicality. I wouldn't have a clue about how to play this.

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#100 richmtn

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 12:30 AM

Pile that old coot from Zapata Texas has me hearing the falls also. I can't remember the last time he was wrong.
One of the funniest parts of his interviews is how pained Ike sounds. :lol:

#101 Downtick

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 01:02 AM

Pile that old coot from Zapata Texas has me hearing the falls also. I can't remember the last time he was wrong.
One of the funniest parts of his interviews is how pained Ike sounds.

So true. Ike can barely make it through the interview. But if Zapata is right, I will be happy to listen to that "old coot" any day.

#102 Flaming Turds

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 09:18 PM

Basically the same as what SG had been saying all along. We are now in wave #3 down which should be extended b/c wave #2 that probably just finished up on Friday failed to complete higher b/c market is so damn weak.

Just like SG said expect wave #3 to be 1.618*Wave #1.

Wave #1 was (930-808) or 122

Hence this move down should be 1.618*122 or 197 SPX points placing SPX at 653 or so before a wave 4 bounce then another push down into wave 5.

OUCH BABY !

Wow Rich those S&P Gann fans are quite something. I knew theyd be interesting! For the record I believe Gann looked for a bull to stay above the 45 and a bear below. So he must have used the linear scale. The semi log seems to be just the opposite. Its impressive how well the S&P tracked. (Gann is also big on 5,10, and 20 year cycles. You can see its 5 up on the buble and probably 5 down adding to ten and you can back test those opposing 5s and they work that way most the time with the final year generally ending in 9 or close to it as in 29 or 99)

It is interesting that both charts seem to provide clues to important support/resistance lines near intersections of the two fans and would indicate that the next fall could coincide neatly with the projection that Ive quoted above.

In Stock Trends by Edwards and Magee they recommend the semilog becasue it makes for easier comparisons on the profit potential of high and low priced stocks as well as the placement of stop loss orders. They also claim that area patterns develop more advantageously on the semilog. So perhaps the semi log should be looked at for important areas and the linear should be followed for the main change between bull and bear.

Thanks for posting those.

#103 simple guy

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 09:48 PM

Few quickies

A SG Annotated SG view chart of Rydex Venture (200% short Q's)... take it fwiw... I think I know what it indicates... bears are frazzled... its a good sign.

Also... 20, 40, 80 week cycles all pointing down into March-May time frame per EWI Financial Forecast February issue...

Things that make you go hmmmmmmm

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#104 richmtn

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 10:14 PM

Flaming Turds thanks for the analysis as I am strictly a novice.
I use semi-log for almost all of my charts. Linear always hits my eye wrong. I just assumed for some reason that
Gann used linear charts. I think the rule with charting is whatever works.
On the semi-log a would guess that the lines meet at 650 at the end of the year. If that means anything.

SG I think most everyone are frazzled. If you want to stay in the game at this point you have to do so from a quiet place inside of yourself. You seem to have it. :wink2:
The emotional level indicates to me that we are at what Doc calls an infarction point. I got into doing the rocket thing during the blastoff today. It took the edge off it for me.

And thanks for the chart. :)

#105 EasyAl

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Posted 27 February 2003 - 10:25 PM

If you think bear market is happenning only in stock market. Think it again.

FOR anyone who has ever wanted an old Persian rug to warm up a favorite room, now may be the time to snag one. Thousands of old Oriental carpets will be on sale at reduced prices this month, many in the softer palette favored by designers this year.

Sales will take place both downtown and uptown in Manhattan, with antique carpets that used to sell for $20,000 going for $10,000 or less.

Rosalind Candlin Benedict, a rug appraiser and consultant, advises patience, saying that finding the right one may mean plowing through stacks. Out of 100 old rugs, she said, "there are always only three or four lovely ones."

Prices, she added, are returning to "normal" after years of inflation. "In the 90's, nothing was real," she said.

Graham Head, president of the rug division at ABC Carpet & Home, concurs. "The days of Mrs. So-and-So coming into ABC and impulsively buying a $20,000 rug are over," he said. "The economy has finally forced prices to become realistic." Furthermore, he declared, rug prices are often determined by decorative value, except at the high end, where factors like age and quality come into play.


Riding a Bear Market in Oriental Carpets





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