Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Night Stool


This topic has been archived. This means that you cannot reply to this topic.
214 replies to this topic

#76 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 05:35 PM

Rich u need to do work on 9 months cycle this is what we are dealing with. Clue is in the chart. Also remember 9-11 low was a false bottom which would have came in October. We have a bearish picture

Attached Images

  • 3_indu.gif


#77 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 06:01 PM

Footsea

Attached Images

  • ft.gif


#78 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 06:08 PM

Dax

Attached Images

  • dax.gif


#79 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:31 PM

I hope u guys don't make trading decisions based on my charts. I am just a fool.

Attached Images

  • 5_indu.gif


#80 richmtn

richmtn

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,004 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 09:41 PM

Rich u need to do work on 9 months cycle this is what we are dealing with. Clue is in the chart. Also remember 9-11 low was a false bottom which would have came in October. We have a bearish picture

FF agreed.
The cyclical picture with the 9 month is not entirely clear to me though.
Looking at the red indicator in the top panel (stochastic) it does a very good job of representing price movement. The 9 month is certainly in a down phase. The complication as I see it is the 18 month cycle. It appears to be making a long bottom. If it turns up it could truncate the down phase of the 9 month. On the other hand they could both continue lower. These and other cycles could head down into an intermediate selling climax. That is what I would expect but there are no guarantees with Mr. Market.

Attached Images

  • Dow_2_25_9_18_month.png


#81 richmtn

richmtn

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,004 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 10:52 PM

A couple of comments.
I didn't get to watch the tape today. Just as well. I seem to have seen this movie before.
We start to see downside acceleration and then we get buying pressure out of the blue. The markets get stabilized and the buyers keep the pressure on. Eventually they are able to frighten the shorts into covering and we have our garden variety short squeeze.
Can't blame the bears. We've been hit over the head with this numerous times. Shorts are not generally strong hands. It's been like that since the first markets and the manipulations have been around since before The Street but now it looks like the trading cartel is much bigger than in the past.

So what does it take to get a sustained down move in a market that would like to drop.
One way is for the cartel to be good and ready to let it happen.
Another way is for a 10 smegma event.
A third is for there to be some serious downside volume. Let me say that I totally agree with Doc about light volume and a bear market. It's a positive. However the lack of volume does make it easier for the boyz to jam this thing whenever they want. Without some real selling by Joe Six Pack we are left to the whims of the matrix. If we had fund redemptions or 401k flight the boyz would be forced to stand aside at least until they could regroup. It's just too easy for them right now.
They are probably making money on both sides. Who knows they could have been loading up short futures today waiting for the kill.

In any event FeedFool has had a hot hand and I wouldn't bet against his call. I'm still short.
I've been trying to trade intermediate term. It has been dicey at times. The good quick traders have been doing better than I. As an alternative Pile Drivers POS Index system is brilliant and has worked wonders for those who have followed his example.

Good luck everyone and trade safe. :)

#82 PileDriver

PileDriver

    Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Banned
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 6,448 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 11:12 PM

I have nothing much to add tonight as really nothing much has changed. Benefit of doubt probably should go to bear. What else can you really do. This evening's sudden PPT jam @ 7:15ish will probably fail as there will be no follow through b/c there are no "other buyers" who will follow and how long can the artificial stimulus be applied continuously to spark the fire when the wood is green and the kindling fuel limited in supply?

Just a pathetic sad situation.

Well I guess its back to a simple drip drip decline punctuated by those flash-in-the-pan pops that gets everyone worked up over nothing before the next drip, drip down.

Hell, I can wait, turds don't do well in that kind of environment over the long haul :grin:

Good thing we're not buying put options. I've got all the time in the world.

Good night. :grin:

#83 richmtn

richmtn

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,004 posts

Posted 25 February 2003 - 11:56 PM

At the request of Flaming Turds a pair of Gann Fans of the S&P long term.
The first is using a linear scale.

Attached Images

  • S_pP_Gann_linear.png


#84 richmtn

richmtn

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,004 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 12:00 AM

This one is using a semi-log scale. Turds is correct. This chart does snap into focus. The 45 dergee lines act as resistance on the way up and support on the way down. Maybe he will explain his ideas about playing the 45 degree line.

Attached Images

  • S_P_GAnn_log.png


#85 ChainGangOf22

ChainGangOf22

    Stock Proctology Intern

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 56 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:13 AM

This one is using a semi-log scale.

Rich,

That is one fascinating chart! It is amazing how the 45 degree lines have guided the price action. Looking at the chart in the July 2002 to present time frame, I can see how the blue gann lines are acting as support and resistance lines right now. As prices are guided further away from the red 45 degree line, there must be some serious pressure building up. The gap between the red 45 and blue support lines just keeps getting bigger, and the breakdown level of the blue gann support line keeps rising. The bulls are going to have to work fast and hard to keep ahead of it. It looks like the longer this thing goes sideways, the harder the eventual plunge is going to be. And just going sideways it's going to breakdown through that support line.

Nice job!

#86 BAREister

BAREister

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 8,469 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:19 AM

HRFF SUSS>>pects "The Matrix" ass some of yew call it hASS arranged twixt themselves to make NASTY 1000 and DJIA 8000 their line in the sand.

Now, will Ms Mkt accomodate 'em?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war

"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos

"We believe that here is no easy way out of this mess, and that the chance of a benign outcome, while hopefully possible, is quite low." Comstock Partners 3-17-2005

"Not without a shudder may the human hand reach into the mysterious urn of destiny." Junk email promoting the sale of Valium, Viagra, Soma and Cialis. Of course, we AMERICANS need not WORRY about such CLAPTRAP!!!

"The trouble about myths, or lies, is that those who foster them are stuck with them." Edward Crankshaw

"I don't buy the idea that a crash will come without warning. There are always warnings. All crashes have certain common technical preconditions." Doc (snorjt)

"YOU look IMPORTANT. Are you important, or just....WEIRD?"
"Bob I am" at a political gathering, to HRFF, 9-29-04

"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
"Well, you sure LOOK LIKE you're C.I.A.!!!"

Lead singer of the rock band KISS to HRFF at a luggage carousel at SeaTac airport circa 1996

"Unlike you, I use words people can understand." Doc

"America at the moment, with its faith-based currency, faith-based economy and faith-based government, might be a heaven for those who love faith, but it's a hell for those of us that respect evidence." The Daily (W?)Reckoning, circa 9-17-04

"What should be clear at this point is that even huge fiscal stimulus and unprecedented financial excess are incapable of fostering a sound and self-sustaining economic expansion. The paramount issue, today and going forward, is the deeply maladjusted U.S. economy and its increasing unresponsiveness to even enormous yet misdirected financial stimulus. Both the Financial Sphere and Economic Sphere are severely maladjusted." Doug Noland's Credit Bubble Bulletin, Aug 24 '04

"U.S. dollar purchasing power relies almost entirely on the difference between interest rates in Japan and the higher rates in the United States." Warren Pollock, Prudent Bear essay circa 9-04

"What about your replacements? the Children. What do we tell them when the whole thing caves in?" HyperTiger

#87 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:47 AM

Boyz can jam the tape much as they like, one can use price and volume to gauge amount of liquidity in the system then liquidity has been drying up. Shorts and Hedgehog’s are supplying the gas and Boyz all the candle painting. Mass psychology in action. If u looks at foreign markets they have bullish divergence but it ain’t going up, In US market there are far to many paint watchers so it has become a painting industries.

We are in a phase where they shake the tree, once all the fruits have been harvested then down we go.

One can smell bulls and bears are throwing in the towels.

#88 richmtn

richmtn

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,004 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 08:56 AM

Boyz can jam the tape much as they like, one can use price and volume to gauge amount of liquidity in the system then liquidity has been drying up. Shorts and Hedgehog’s are supplying the gas and Boyz all the candle painting. Mass psychology in action. If u looks at foreign markets they have bullish divergence but it ain’t going up, In US market there are far to many paint watchers so it has become a painting industries.

We are in a phase where they shake the tree, once all the fruits have been harvested then down we go.

One can smell bulls and bears are throwing in the towels.

Thanks for those great charts. Did you get anything from the 9 month cycle chart I posted? It's a rough ride but I'm strapped and and have my crash helmet on. :D

Chain nice analysis. I'll play with that chart some more.

#89 FeedFool

FeedFool

    Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 9,475 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 12:02 PM

Rich I did not get anything extra out from 9 months cycle chart.


There is very little upside left. Boyz are in distribution mode before the drop. This week widow dressing will stop the rot then real fun will begin next week. I will be looking to short high tick ramp job on Friday and final shorts on Tuesday.

#90 Pretzel Logic

Pretzel Logic

    Doctor of Stock Proctology

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 2,387 posts

Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:41 PM

This next "enhanced" chart looks about right to me. We shall see.

Attached Images

  • spx_comp_1.GIF

In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:

"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday





Stock market portfolio giving you the runs? See Dr. Stool.

Take a subscribatory!
Download 
The Anals of Stock Proctology now!



The Daily Stool - Stock Market Message Board
Stool's Gold- Gold and Precious Metals Forum
Look Out Below Message Board

Support your local Stool Board.


The Al E. Greenspeuman designer line at Stoolmart. Get yours today! Click here now!
Get Mugged!


Dr. Stool's
Book Search

Enter title, author, or keyword
Just books
All Products





Old Stool Depository

Live Steaming Pile Chart