214 replies to this topic
Posted 25 February 2003 - 05:35 PM
Rich u need to do work on 9 months cycle this is what we are dealing with. Clue is in the chart. Also remember 9-11 low was a false bottom which would have came in October. We have a bearish picture
Posted 25 February 2003 - 08:31 PM
Posted 25 February 2003 - 09:41 PM
The cyclical picture with the 9 month is not entirely clear to me though.
Looking at the red indicator in the top panel (stochastic) it does a very good job of representing price movement. The 9 month is certainly in a down phase. The complication as I see it is the 18 month cycle. It appears to be making a long bottom. If it turns up it could truncate the down phase of the 9 month. On the other hand they could both continue lower. These and other cycles could head down into an intermediate selling climax. That is what I would expect but there are no guarantees with Mr. Market.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 10:52 PM
A couple of comments.
I didn't get to watch the tape today. Just as well. I seem to have seen this movie before.
We start to see downside acceleration and then we get buying pressure out of the blue. The markets get stabilized and the buyers keep the pressure on. Eventually they are able to frighten the shorts into covering and we have our garden variety short squeeze.
Can't blame the bears. We've been hit over the head with this numerous times. Shorts are not generally strong hands. It's been like that since the first markets and the manipulations have been around since before The Street but now it looks like the trading cartel is much bigger than in the past.
So what does it take to get a sustained down move in a market that would like to drop.
One way is for the cartel to be good and ready to let it happen.
Another way is for a 10 smegma event.
A third is for there to be some serious downside volume. Let me say that I totally agree with Doc about light volume and a bear market. It's a positive. However the lack of volume does make it easier for the boyz to jam this thing whenever they want. Without some real selling by Joe Six Pack we are left to the whims of the matrix. If we had fund redemptions or 401k flight the boyz would be forced to stand aside at least until they could regroup. It's just too easy for them right now.
They are probably making money on both sides. Who knows they could have been loading up short futures today waiting for the kill.
In any event FeedFool has had a hot hand and I wouldn't bet against his call. I'm still short.
I've been trying to trade intermediate term. It has been dicey at times. The good quick traders have been doing better than I. As an alternative Pile Drivers POS Index system is brilliant and has worked wonders for those who have followed his example.
Good luck everyone and trade safe.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 11:12 PM
I have nothing much to add tonight as really nothing much has changed. Benefit of doubt probably should go to bear. What else can you really do. This evening's sudden PPT jam @ 7:15ish will probably fail as there will be no follow through b/c there are no "other buyers" who will follow and how long can the artificial stimulus be applied continuously to spark the fire when the wood is green and the kindling fuel limited in supply?
Just a pathetic sad situation.
Well I guess its back to a simple drip drip decline punctuated by those flash-in-the-pan pops that gets everyone worked up over nothing before the next drip, drip down.
Hell, I can wait, turds don't do well in that kind of environment over the long haul
Good thing we're not buying put options. I've got all the time in the world.
Posted 25 February 2003 - 11:56 PM
At the request of Flaming Turds a pair of Gann Fans of the S&P long term.
The first is using a linear scale.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 12:00 AM
This one is using a semi-log scale. Turds is correct. This chart does snap into focus. The 45 dergee lines act as resistance on the way up and support on the way down. Maybe he will explain his ideas about playing the 45 degree line.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:13 AM
That is one fascinating chart! It is amazing how the 45 degree lines have guided the price action. Looking at the chart in the July 2002 to present time frame, I can see how the blue gann lines are acting as support and resistance lines right now. As prices are guided further away from the red 45 degree line, there must be some serious pressure building up. The gap between the red 45 and blue support lines just keeps getting bigger, and the breakdown level of the blue gann support line keeps rising. The bulls are going to have to work fast and hard to keep ahead of it. It looks like the longer this thing goes sideways, the harder the eventual plunge is going to be. And just going sideways it's going to breakdown through that support line.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:19 AM
HRFF SUSS>>pects "The Matrix" ass some of yew call it hASS arranged twixt themselves to make NASTY 1000 and DJIA 8000 their line in the sand.
Now, will Ms Mkt accomodate 'em?
"The sphinx set riddles for people which they could not solve and the sphinx devoured them." Russian poet Ilia Ehrenberg reflecting years later upon the debacle of the Bolshevik Revolution and civil war
"In any case, experience shows people are unlikely to change their ways without a cataclysm of existential proportions" Meinhard Meigel, German economist and demography expert on his prophecy of a Wagnerian abyss of social and economic chaos
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"Are YOU C.I.A.???"
"No, I'm not "CIA"."
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Posted 26 February 2003 - 03:47 AM
Boyz can jam the tape much as they like, one can use price and volume to gauge amount of liquidity in the system then liquidity has been drying up. Shorts and Hedgehog’s are supplying the gas and Boyz all the candle painting. Mass psychology in action. If u looks at foreign markets they have bullish divergence but it ain’t going up, In US market there are far to many paint watchers so it has become a painting industries.
We are in a phase where they shake the tree, once all the fruits have been harvested then down we go.
One can smell bulls and bears are throwing in the towels.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 08:56 AM
Thanks for those great charts. Did you get anything from the 9 month cycle chart I posted? It's a rough ride but I'm strapped and and have my crash helmet on.
Chain nice analysis. I'll play with that chart some more.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 12:02 PM
Rich I did not get anything extra out from 9 months cycle chart.
There is very little upside left. Boyz are in distribution mode before the drop. This week widow dressing will stop the rot then real fun will begin next week. I will be looking to short high tick ramp job on Friday and final shorts on Tuesday.
Posted 26 February 2003 - 07:41 PM
In honor of the times, back to the 2008 signature:
"When Black Friday comes, I'll stand down by the door,
And catch the grey men when they dive from the fourteenth floor,
When Black Friday comes, I'll collect everything I'm owed,
And before my friends find out I'll be on the road,
When Black Friday falls
you know it's got to be...
Don't let it fall on me." - Steely Dan, Black Friday
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