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#31 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 04:24 PM

I find that by adding Doc's cycle work onto other disciplines it can greatly clarify the picture. It can help in giving different weight to alternative counts and chart patterns.

Looking back at the past week we can see a few things.
3 day cycle using 23 minute bars.
Without the Monday holiday which Lycos carelessly lefton the chart we hace a pretty nice looking wave. Problem is that it stretched into 4 days. 2 days up and 2 days down.
We are currently 1 day into the next up phase.
Posted Image

5 days cycle using 41 minute bars.
Nice big up phase followed by a truncated down phase with positive divergence. Also 4 days in duration. <_< This cycle with the 3 day seems to have morphed into a four day.
Posted Image

4-5 week cycle using 170 minute bars.
This thing launches at the start of the rally. So does the 6-7 week and 13 day cycles (not shown).
Posted Image

My retrospective analysis:
The 3 day was stretched by the five day. The five day down phase was truncated by the longer cycles gathering momentum.

Doc of course gave warnings and signals in the Anals and Stooltrading. I find that using his cycle charts and commentary can help clarify patterns. This one was admittedly very tricky with the mixed cyclicality.

What's ahead by richmtn FWIW:
As the 3, 5, 8 and 13 day cycles top we should get a cascading effect. This should be helped along by the downphasing 10-13 week, 5-6 month, 9 month and 10-12 month cycles. :grin: :grin: :grin:

#32 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 04:43 PM

Hi Everyone.  I just signed up.  Have been lurking for several weeks.  I have one question on the chart of Put Call Ratios that are put up on this board.  Where can you get that data?


Welcome aboard. Posted Image

The put/call was obtained from Stockcharts.com. I believe they have some free charting and ready made stuff. For a fee you'll get more.
If put/call or other sentiment indicators are your thing hurry over to Dr. Bontchev's TA Forum. This is a free portion of Doc's Capitalstool.com.
Some of the other charts from the first page were created at CBS MarketWatch.com.

#33 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 07:50 PM

Thanks Meta. And thanks for your charts. It's nice to see what someone else's work is showing. I'll put up that chart. Sounds like you want my Gestalt-O-Graph™. I'll do it now if my fiance doesn't throw me off the computer. If it's not exactly what you want tell me.

*******************************************
From my post on Feb. 16
Since Doc mentioned a bounce off the 6-7 week low within a 10-13 week down cycle I went to look for a similar pattern. I found one in the June-July 2002 period. It contained some rather sharp bull spikes but if you rode it out you were well rewarded. It's not easy to sit through the blastoffs.
This is shown for educational/comparison purposes. While there are a number of similarities between the time frames there are also many differences. No two periods will play out identically. Watch Doc's signals.

********************************************

Here is an update of the charts I posted last week.
Please see Doc's Anals for a full discussion of the relationship between the 6-7 week and 10-13 week cycles. Very important stuff.

Posted Image

Posted Image

#34 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 09:06 PM

NOTE: I posted this before reading the Anals. It seems the last two weeks Doc and I have been contemplating some of the same stuff. Could it be because he's been my teacher? :D
Anyway for those who read the Anals you know Doc made a little change to some of his thinking on the 4 year cycle. In any case it does not change my conclusions. Read on Stool Army.

**************************************************

Before I put up that chart I'd like to help Doc put the 4 year cycle to bed. Doc said it bottomed in the area of October 2001 and it was 3 years in duration.
Besides as I think Doc has said. It don't freakin matter.
THIS IS A BEAR MARKET. THE THING IS TRENDING. All I see are ripples in the cycle. Why is that? It's because in the bull market it was a floating turd. Now that it's a bear market it's a sinker. The stinking sinker is just cruising along the bottom. Notice the continous low readings for the indicators.
Is it in an up phase? How could you tell except by counting? If I put a Price Oscillator on the chart it would be going down at about a 45 degree angle.
I'm more interested in the current mini ripples as it bumps along the bottom. Looks to me like the indicators are ready to curl over. B)

The 4 year

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#35 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 09:08 PM

The three year.

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#36 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 09:10 PM

Closeup of the 3 year.
Yeah those indicators are set to 3 years. They are not short term cycles they only look like it. :shocked

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#37 richmtn

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Posted 22 February 2003 - 10:01 PM

All together now. We have unfinished business!!!

Small print: Listen to Doc not me. 13 months ago I had never traded a stock. Doc has been doing this for decades.

Richmtn's Gestalt-O-Graph™

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#38 FeedFool

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 04:48 PM

Posted Image



Astro calling for 200% short has made trading little tricky since $CPC has hit cover and go long signal that I missed. Looking at the chart now there is more upside. I have few turn dates 25th Feb, 4th March. I have more confidence on March call

Looks like H&S Neckline is where Spooky will fail.

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#39 Metamucil

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:13 PM

Rich,

You have outdone yourself...lol. Very nice.

Yes, we are being held captive by small cycles....my read, for now. I wonder if it is possible to produce moving averages and attempt a 'ribbon' pattern (like some folks use with MAs of price)?

One interesting question is whether the 6 month cycle can exert any meaningful price force when the 12 month cycle is falling.

A caution Doc expressed was that the 6 was bottoming, concomitant with a 12 top. My purely amateur inspection of the ROCs shows that the 6 is crushed by a falling 12. It's crude, but clear. I would therefore focus on the 12 month, 13wk
and 7 wk cycles....as a working hypothesis for refining my swingtrading entries and exits.


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#40 PileDriver

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:29 PM

Richmtn, remember about 6 weeks ago or more you were trying to figure out the significance of the cluster of fib dates in mid Feb you saw? Well, here we are.

What the hell does it mean?

I'll take a simpleton approach, the primary trend is down, a little brief rally interruption just occurred, the main primary trend resumes soon, perhaps sooner than most expect. :grin:

Bulls are complacent (low VIX), forever hopeful, and show no risk adversion. Bears are cautious and risk adverse (hyper on protecting profits). Perfect ingredients for a continutation of the primary trend.

To go with the existing confirmed primary trend is to prudently speculate, to go against it is to gamble (I'm directing this statement not to you but in general)

I'm into speculation, not gambling. The latter I can do in Vegas.

#41 Metamucil

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:38 PM

PD, agreed; I am actually in favor of a small continuing upswing. I'll then aggressively add to my shorts.

Will be watching comp 1363 for further cues.

Rich,

Getting ready for expansion....again.



courtesy: this guy....
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#42 PileDriver

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:41 PM

Hey Meta, this board is awesome!

CPC doesn't worry me too much. Find tops with CPC, bottoms with VIX per Adam Hamilton.

Plus see what Doc has to say about CPC on M2M. Also, CPC heavily distorted due to unusually heavy QQQ leap puts bought in bullish spread by hedge fund in early Feb.

#43 Metamucil

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:45 PM

Good E waver; last push is dead ahead
"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#44 Metamucil

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 05:50 PM

One more for today, then I go play 'doctor'..........

Confirms the most rational view; last push soon.




"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000

#45 Metamucil

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Posted 23 February 2003 - 06:03 PM

Hey Meta, this board is awesome!

CPC doesn't worry me too much. Find tops with CPC, bottoms with VIX per Adam Hamilton.

Plus see what Doc has to say about CPC on M2M. Also, CPC heavily distorted due to unusually heavy QQQ leap puts bought in bullish spread by hedge fund in early Feb.

PD,

Yep, Night Stool is where we will restore sanity.....by adding lots of TA, ESPECIALLY Hurst cycles.....Doc's chosen and powerful weapon.

One more:


"I know the human being and fish can coexist peacefully"____George W. Bush, 7/29/2000





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